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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG 12|KALANI SITAKE|—RECORD11-2|CONF—
BYU#13 AP 32 FPIB12 · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
44FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
83%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#442 BC / 25
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.7
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE71
PERFORMANCE71
TALENT59
CONTINUITY83
DEFENSE74
PERFORMANCE74
TALENT51
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
58MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HSOUTHERN ILLINOIS—W 41-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ASMU#12W 18-15829292-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AWYOMING—W 34-14121414+74BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HKANSAS STATE—W 38-9548787+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ABAYLOR—W 34-28697272+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HARIZONA—W 41-19603939+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HOKLAHOMA STATE—W 38-35624040+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AUCF—W 37-24775555+33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AUTAH—W 22-21777171+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HKANSAS—L 13-17656262+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AARIZONA STATE#7L 23-28797474+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HHOUSTON—W 30-18532424+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28ACOLORADO#25W 36-14787171+17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL92PERF58RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
JAKE RETZLAFFQB JURET
UNR★48799%-6EMERGED
3
GERRY BOHANONQB SEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
★4★391%-3FELL
10
TREYSON BOURGUETQB SEPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN
★3★300%-37HELD
3
MCCAE HILLSTEADQB JUPORTAL · UTAH STATE
★3★300%-12HELD
10
NOAH LUGOQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
16
COLE HAGENQB SORET
★4—00%——
▾RB56TAL54PERF56RET62ONE OWNERn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
LJ MARTINRB SERET
★3—8846%+12—
7
HINCKLEY ROPATIRB SERET
UNR★37323%+31EMERGED
30
SIONE MOARB SONO SNAPS
UNR★35610%+10EMERGED
21
ENOCH NAWAHINERB SERET
★2—549%-47—
MILES DAVISRB SERET
★3★3507%-1HELD
23
POKAIAUA HAUNGARB FRTRUE FR
★3★3456%-20HELD
28
JOVESA DAMUNIRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
34
CHARLIE MISKARB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL53PERF62RET96ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
CHASE ROBERTSWR SERET
★3—8928%+31—
88
MATA'AVA TA'ASETE SERET
UNR—8743%-29—
5
DARIUS LASSITERWR SERET
UNR★38727%+22EMERGED
0
KEELAN MARIONWR SERET
UNR★47921%+8EMERGED
1
KEANU HILLTE SERET
★3—7427%+27—
13
JOJO PHILLIPSWR JURET
★3—6611%-1—
87
ETHAN ERICKSONTE SERET
★3—5612%-43—
0
KODY EPPSWR JURET
★3★3566%+20HELD
11
PARKER KINGSTONWR JURET
★3—556%+33—
42
RAY PAULOTE SERET
UNR—508%——
80
RYNER SWANSONTE FRTRUE FR
★4—498%——
5
CODY HAGENWR SONO SNAPS
★4—291%——
87
JACKSON BOWERSTE JURET
★4★4141%—HELD
85
ANTHONY OLSENTE JURET
UNR—70%——
22
MASON FAKAHUATE SERET
★2—70%——
13
KOA ELDREDGEWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
0
TEI NACUAWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
NASON COLEMANTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
29
ROWAN REAYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
WILL ZUNDELTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
JARINN KALAMAWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
NOAH MOEAKITE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
27
WESTON COVEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
17
PRINCE ZOMBOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
89
DOMINIQUE MCKENZIEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL60TAL55PERF60RET76n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL46TAL34PERF46RET86n=10 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB67TAL67PERF67RET61n=7 · 11 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB64TAL50PERF64RET69n=10 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RYNER SWANSONHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
FALETAU SATUALAHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
NAKI TUAKOIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
DEVOUX TUATAGAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
KINILAU FONOHEMAHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
THERRIAN ALEXANDER IIIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SEFO AKUILAHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
EPHRAIM ASIATAHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ENOCH WATSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CARSON SU'ESU'EHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK KELLYWEBER STATEEDGE★3★4
TREYSON BOURGUETWESTERN MICHIGANQB★3★3
AUSTIN LEAUSASOUTHERN UTAHIOL★2★3
MARQUE COLLINSWEBER STATECBUNR★3
MCCAE HILLSTEADUTAH STATEQB★3★3
GERRY BOHANONSOUTH FLORIDAQB★4★3
CHOE BRYANT-STROTHERUCLAEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT29 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOHN HENRY DALEYUTAHDE★3★4
MICHAEL DALEYRICEDE★3★3
KINGSLEY SUAMATAIANFL DRAFT R2OL★4—
AJ VONGPHACHANHELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EDDIE HECKARDELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
MAX TOOLEYELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
PAUL MAILEELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
KAMDEN GARRETTELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
JACKSON CRAVENSELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
ATUNAISA MAHEELIGIBILITY UPDT★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES44%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS24%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#44NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8518COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
917 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST56% BACK56th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG56% BACK56th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST69%69th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE