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HOME›TEAMS›CENTRAL MICHIGAN›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|JIM MCELWAIN|—RECORD8-4|CONF—
CENTRAL MICHIGAN79 FPIMAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
11FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#870 BC / 25
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs7.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
32MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4AMISSOURI—L 24-34684747-11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HROBERT MORRIS—W 45-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18ALSU—L 21-49975050-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 31-274644+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2AMIAMI (OH)—L 17-28204444-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9AOHIO—W 30-27151717+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16HTOLEDO—W 26-23385757-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 38-39182626+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3AWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 42-30234141-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HKENT STATE—W 54-30182929+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17ABALL STATE—W 37-17161818+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 31-10172323+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET58NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
TYLER PAPEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
DANIEL RICHARDSONQB JURET
★3★200%—FELL
3
JACOB SIRMONQB JUPORTAL · WASHINGTON
★4★300%—FELL
8
JOHN KELLERQB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET49NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
24
DARIUS BRACYRB SERET
★2—00%——
9
MARION LUKESRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
MYLES BAILEYRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
JAKE TAFELSKIRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
7
LEW NICHOLS IIIRB SORET
★3—00%——
5
KOBE LEWISRB SERET
★2★200%—HELD
36
CHRISTIAN BROWNRB SORET
UNR—00%——
5
NAHREE BIGGINSRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
KENNY BREWER IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
CHRIS PARKERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
11
JACOREY SULLIVANWR SERET
★3—00%——
REMI SIMMONSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
JOEL WILSONTE JURET
★2—00%——
44
HUNTER BUCZKOWSKITE SERET
★2—00%——
27
LEVAR GUMMSWR JUPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN STATE
★2★200%—HELD
81
KE'ANDRE COLLINSWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
88
KALIL PIMPLETONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
6
DALLAS DIXONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
82
AUSTIN HERGOTTTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
16
NORMAN ANDERSONWR JURET
★2★200%—HELD
80
DRAYTON LAWWR JURET
★3—00%——
85
KEEGAN COSSOUTE JURET
★3—00%——
46
MICHAEL HEGEWALDTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
JAVON GANTTWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
18
ALEC WARDWR SORET
★2—00%——
20
ZAHIR SWANNWR FRRET
★3—00%——
42
TYLER BARKELEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
31
MATT MILLERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
CHASE PEDDIEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
48
HUNTER ADAMSTE FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
86
MARCUS YOUNGTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
MITCHEL COLLIERTE SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
87
KEAGAN MONROEWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS23 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DJ STEPNEYHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
IRONE JACKSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CALEB SPANNHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ELIJAH RIKARDHS RECRUITS★3UNR
PIUS ODJUGOHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
FERNANDO SANCHEZHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ISAIAH ROGERSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ERIC REESEHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ALEC PALELLAHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JASE BAUERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN2 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACOB SIRMONWASHINGTONQB★4★3
MARCEL LEWISMICHIGAN STATELB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT3 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYRONE SCOTTMISSOURI STATEWR★2UNR
MOHAMED DIALLOARIZONADLUNR★3
TY BROCKNOT LISTEDQB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#87NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8182COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
318 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST77% BACK77th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG77% BACK77th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
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