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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|WILL HEALY|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
CHARLOTTE127 FPIAAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
41FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
12%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1070 BC / 16
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-15.0
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT42
CONTINUITY12
DEFENSE0
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT33
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 27AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 13-43493131-21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2HWILLIAM & MARY—L 24-41————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HMARYLAND—L 21-56737676-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AGEORGIA STATE—W 42-41384040-30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24ASOUTH CAROLINA#23L 20-56868080-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HUTEP—L 35-41102525-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15AUAB—L 20-34294747-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 15-343422+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29ARICE—W 56-23281212-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 7-59425050-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—L 14-24263232-22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HLOUISIANA TECH—W 26-213988+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL45PERF44RET79ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
CHRIS REYNOLDSQB SERET
UNR—8272%+25—
8
XAVIER WILLIAMSQB SONO SNAPS
★3—5517%-33—
7
JAMES FOSTERQB JURET
★4★4407%-41HELD
11
TREXLER IVEYQB JURET
UNR—284%——
10
DYLAN RATLIFFQB JURET
UNR—00%——
7
STEVEN JOHNSONQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB41TAL34PERF41RET90ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
SHADRICK BYRDRB JURET
★3★39354%-11HELD
6
CHAVON MCEACHERNRB SORET
★3—6921%+8—
21
HENRY RUTLEDGERB SERET
UNR—5510%+36—
22
JOHNNY MARTINRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3539%+10HELD
2
CALVIN CAMPRB SERET
UNR—425%+14—
27
MICAH BELLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★350%—HELD
14
HAHSAUN WILSONRB SENO SNAPS
★2★300%—ROSE
30
JAYLEN DONALDSONRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
WATSON CUSICKRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL60PERF58RET84ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
GRANT DUBOSEWR JURET
UNR★39732%+15EMERGED
11
ELIJAH SPENCERWR SERET
★3★49529%+30ROSE
1
VICTOR TUCKERWR SERET
UNR—8724%0—
17
TAYLOR THOMPSONTE SERET
★3★37735%+12HELD
81
JAKE CLEMONSTE SERET
★3—7634%+38—
15
EUGENE MINTER JR.TE SENO SNAPS
UNR—5918%+3—
89
QUINTON PATTENWR JURET
★2—566%-25—
10
NOLAN GROULXWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3504%-3FELL
18
COLIN WEBERTE SERET
★3★3469%—HELD
22
JACK REYNOLDSWR JUNO SNAPS
★2★2392%—HELD
86
BRYCE KENNONTE SERET
UNR—385%——
19
TREY BLOUNTWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3331%—FELL
8
SEAN BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—130%——
16
KENDRIC BLAKE JR.WR JURET
UNR—70%——
12
DONTA ARMSTRONGTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
5
JAIRUS MACKWR SERET
★3—00%——
87
CHARLIE FISHWR SONO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
15
ROGER WALTERSWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
34
FREDDIE FELTON IIIWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
88
JAKE MCTAGGARTTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
84
REGGIE GIVHAN IIIWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
19
XANDER LAMBWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
DEVIN PELLOMWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
32
JAIDEN GRANDATE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
ELISHA EDWARDSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL41TAL28PERF41RET19n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL43TAL36PERF43RET74n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸LB48TAL29PERF48RET62n=6 · 10 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB48TAL34PERF48RET52n=12 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AVEON GROSEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JAKE MCTAGGARTHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
CADE GOLDMANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MICAH BELLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
MAGUIRE NEALHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ROGER WALTERSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
REID WILLIFORDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
REGGIE GIVHANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARCUS BOSTON BRINKLEYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ANTONIO GAINESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DOM SHOFFNEREASTERN ILLINOISQBUNRUNR
TYLER MURRAYMEMPHISLB★2UNR
JOSIAH SA'OELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
HUNTER KELLYELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
RYAN CARRIEREELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
LUKE MARTINELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
JUSTIN WHISENHUNTELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
CHIBUEZE NWANNAELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
JONATHAN ALEXANDERELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
JOSHUA BAILEYELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#107NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8258COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST92% BACK92th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG92% BACK92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR19%19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST52%52th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE