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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG 12|LUKE FICKELL|—RECORD13-0|CONF—
CINCINNATI#4 AP 10 FPIB12 · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
63FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#421 BC / 24
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs11.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+23.2
13 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
44MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HMIAMI (OH)—W 49-14204444+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HMURRAY STATE—W 42-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18AINDIANA—W 38-24732323+74BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2ANOTRE DAME#8W 24-13929292+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HTEMPLE—W 52-34377+90BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16HUCF—W 56-21655353+44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23ANAVY—W 27-2072222+75BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30ATULANE—W 31-12373232+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HTULSA—W 28-20395353+44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12ASOUTH FLORIDA—W 45-28471616+81BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HSMU—W 48-14556666+31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AEAST CAROLINA—W 35-13454040+57BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 4HHOUSTON#17W 35-20537777+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET95NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
DESMOND RIDDERQB SERET
★3—00%——
16
BRADY LICHTENBERGQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
JACK PERRYQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET42NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
CHARLES MCCLELLANDRB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
RYAN MONTGOMERYRB SERET
★3—00%——
24
JEROME FORDRB JURET
★4—00%——
2
ETHAN WRIGHTRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
36
LEWIS SHEPHERDRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
TAVION THOMASRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
30
MICHAEL KOPAYGORODSKYRB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
MYLES MONTGOMERYRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
WILL PAULINGWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
82
NOAH DAVISTE SERET
★3—00%——
21
TYLER SCOTTWR JURET
★3—00%——
88
PAYTEN SINGLETARYTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
15
NATE MEYERWR SORET
UNR—00%——
1
JORDAN JONESWR SERET
★3—00%——
8
MICHAEL YOUNGWR SERET
★3—00%——
12
ALEC PIERCEWR SERET
★3—00%——
11
LEONARD TAYLORTE SERET
★4—00%——
81
JOSH WHYLETE SERET
★3—00%——
1
TRE TUCKERWR SERET
★3—00%——
80
CHRIS SCOTTWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
0
JADON THOMPSONWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
3
EVAN PRATERWR SERET
★4—00%——
37
HENRY COOKWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
GARYN PRATERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
WYATT FISCHERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
5
BLUE SMITHWR SERET
★4★400%—HELD
47
NATE LAWLERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
89
BRYANT JOHNSON IIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
4
MARQUEZ BELLWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
27
NORMAN LOVEWR SORET
★3—00%——
7
CHAMON METAYERTE SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
85
JIAIR THOMASWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
JACK CAMPBELLTE JURET
★3—00%——
34
CALEB SCHMITZTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
18
DREW DONLEYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
45
BARAK FAULKTE JURET
UNR—00%——
26
ALEX GREENWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
29
ASHTON KOLLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS24 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHAMON METAYERHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
BRYON THREATSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JACK DINGLEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ZEIQUI LAWTONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ROB JACKSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LUKE COLLINSWORTHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MAO GLYNN IIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
ARMORION SMITHHS RECRUITS★3UNR
IESA JARMONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CAMERON JUNIORHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN1 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOWON BRIGGSVIRGINIADT★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BEN BRYANTEASTERN MICHIGANQB★3★3
JAYSHON JACKSONBALL STATEWR★3★3
MICHAEL PITTSWESTERN KENTUCKYDE★3★3
JAMES WIGGINSNFL DRAFT R7S★3—
GERRID DOAKSNFL DRAFT R7RB★3—
DARRICK FORRESTNFL DRAFT R5S★3—
ETHAN TUCKYELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
BRUNO LABELLEELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
ELIJAH PONDERELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
DARIUS HARPERELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#42NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8561COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
310 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE