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HOME›TEAMS›CINCINNATI›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG 12|LUKE FICKELL|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
CINCINNATI40 FPIB12 · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
65FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
5%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#423 BC / 20
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.8
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE45
PERFORMANCE45
TALENT57
CONTINUITY5
DEFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT54
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
46MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3AARKANSAS—L 24-31827878+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HKENNESAW STATE—W 63-102———NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17AMIAMI (OH)—W 38-17202121+61BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HINDIANA—W 45-24743131+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1ATULSA—W 31-21403434+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 28-245199+73BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22ASMU—W 29-27555858+24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29AUCF—L 21-25627373+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HNAVY—W 20-1002929+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HEAST CAROLINA—W 27-25424848+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19ATEMPLE—W 23-3452020+62BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HTULANE#9L 24-27477979+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17ALOUISVILLE—L 7-24577171+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL85PERF36RET0ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BEN BRYANTQB SENO SNAPS
★3★383100%+24HELD
16
BRADY LICHTENBERGQB SERET
★3—00%——
13
JACOB HOYINGQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
5
LUTHER RICHESSONQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB49TAL72PERF49RET76ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
CHARLES MCCLELLANDRB SERET
UNR—9252%+30—
22
RYAN MONTGOMERYRB SERET
★3—7122%+9—
21
COREY KINERRB SENO SNAPS
★4—7021%-28—
22
MYLES MONTGOMERYRB SERET
★3★3323%+41HELD
2
ETHAN WRIGHTRB SERET
★3★3272%+33HELD
42
STEPHAN BYRDRB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
36
LEWIS SHEPHERDRB JURET
UNR—00%——
25
SHAUN THOMASRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE56TAL65PERF59RET87ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
JOSH WHYLETE SERET
★3—9348%+16—
21
TYLER SCOTTWR JURET
★3—9228%+30—
11
LEONARD TAYLORTE SERET
★4—8737%-22—
1
TRE TUCKERWR SERET
★3—8724%+23—
0
JADON THOMPSONWR SERET
★4★37919%-5FELL
8
NICK MARDNERWR SENO SNAPS
★2★36913%+36ROSE
80
CHRIS SCOTTWR JURET
★3★3566%-58HELD
2
WILL PAULINGWR SERET
★3★3556%+1HELD
7
CHAMON METAYERTE SERET
★4★3498%—FELL
88
PAYTEN SINGLETARYTE SERET
★3★3477%—HELD
5
BLUE SMITHWR SERET
★4★4433%—HELD
18
DREW DONLEYWR JURET
★3★3221%—HELD
14
WYATT FISCHERWR SERET
UNR—130%——
12
QUINCY BURROUGHSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
3
EVAN PRATERWR SERET
★4—00%——
34
CALEB SCHMITZTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
85
JIAIR THOMASWR SERET
UNR—00%——
45
BARAK FAULKTE JURET
UNR—00%——
29
ASHTON KOLLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
17
JOJO BERMUDEZWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
15
MARCUS PETERSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
86
LESLEY ANDOHWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
MICHAEL MCCALMONTTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
JESSE MEYERTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL48PERF54RET0n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL51TAL30PERF51RET74n=10 · 7 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB66TAL76PERF66RET71n=5 · 11 METRICS · 48 OBS
▸DB50TAL58PERF50RET94n=10 · 6 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MARIO EUGENIOHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JQ HARDAWAYHS RECRUITS★4UNR
DERRICK SHEPARD JR.HS RECRUITDL★4UNR
OLIVER BRIDGESHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JOJO BERMUDEZHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
STEPHAN BYRDHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
LUTHER RICHESSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
MARCUS PETERSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ETHAN GREENHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CJ DOGGETTE JR.HS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ALEX BALESOREGONPKUNRUNR
JORDAN JONESMISSOURI STATEWR★3UNR
DESMOND RIDDERELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
MILES MANIGAULTELIGIBILITY UPDL★2—
CURTIS BROOKSELIGIBILITY UPDT★2—
JOEL DUBLANKOELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
NOAH DAVISELIGIBILITY UPTE★3—
COBY BRYANTELIGIBILITY UPCB★3—
MARCUS BROWNELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
DARRIAN BEAVERSELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#42NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 20 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8650COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST24% BACK24th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG24% BACK24th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST94%94th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE