SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
ACC|DAVID CUTCLIFFE|—RECORD7-5|CONF—
DUKE43 FPIACC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
72FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#631 BC / 16
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.3
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HARMY#19W 34-1473636+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8ANORTHWESTERN#21W 21-7694848+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15ABAYLOR—W 40-27774949+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HNORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL—W 55-13————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 29HVIRGINIA TECH—L 14-31795858+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13AGEORGIA TECH—W 28-14654343+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20HVIRGINIA—L 14-28536868-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27APITTSBURGH—L 45-54735353+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3AMIAMI—W 20-12868080-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10HNORTH CAROLINA—W 42-35803333+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17ACLEMSON#1L 6-35979898-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24HWAKE FOREST—L 7-59505656+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
GUNNAR HOLMBERGQB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
DANIEL JONESQB JURET
UNR—00%——
18
QUENTIN HARRISQB SERET
UNR—00%——
15
CHRIS KATRENICKQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
DANIEL KARLINQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
ROBERT NELSONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET52NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
MYLES HUDZICKRB SERET
★3—00%——
47
RYAN WOLITZERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
MATAEO DURANTRB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
36
ELIJAH DEVEAUXRB JURET
★3—00%——
6
NICODEM PIERRERB SERET
UNR—00%——
45
GRIFFIN CARTERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
20
MARVIN HUBBARD IIIRB JURET
★3—00%——
4
DEON JACKSONRB SERET
★3—00%——
28
BRITTAIN BROWNRB SERET
★3—00%——
23
JAMES JACKSON IVRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
JAKE BOBOWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
11
SCOTT BRACEYWR JURET
★4—00%——
82
JARETT GARNERWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
CHRIS TAYLORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
TREVON LEEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
87
NOAH GRAYTE SERET
★3—00%——
80
DANIEL HELMTE SERET
UNR—00%——
5
JOHNATHAN LLOYDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
DAVIS KOPPENHAVERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
3
T.J. RAHMINGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
7
KEYSTON FULLERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
AARON YOUNGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
DAMOND PHILYAW-JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
89
MARK BIRMINGHAMTE SERET
★4—00%——
60
PATRICK LEITTENTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
JAKE MARWEDETE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
46
AARON WRIGHTTE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
DJ FULLARDWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
JOE HARDISONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
TROY DUNCANWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TAHJ RICEHS RECRUITSDE★4UNR
GUNNAR HOLMBERGHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
NATE THOMPSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CASEY HOLMANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ROCKY SHELTONHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
KEN TORAINHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SHAKA HEYWARDHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
DENNIS SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JEREMIAH LEWISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ELIJIAH BROWNHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT9 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PARKER BOEHMENOT LISTEDQBUNR—
BRYON FIELDS JR.NOT LISTEDCBUNR—
QUAY CHAMBERSNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
MIKE RAMSAYNOT LISTEDDTUNR—
ALONZO SAXTON IINOT LISTEDSUNR—
ZAVIER CARMICHAELNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
SHAUN WILSONNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
QUAVEN FERGUSONNOT LISTEDDTUNR—
DANNY DOYLENOT LISTEDDEUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#63NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 16 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8574COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST84% BACK84th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG84% BACK84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE