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● LIVE|2020 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2020TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2020 FINAL
ACC|DAVID CUTCLIFFE|—RECORD2-9|CONF—
DUKE99 FPIACC · 2020 SEASON
TALENT
64FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#610 BC / 18
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
2-9ACTUALvs2.9-8.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-13.3
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE11 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
2SEP 12ANOTRE DAME#5L 13-27949797-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 19HBOSTON COLLEGE—L 6-26595151-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 26AVIRGINIA—L 20-38545151-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 3HVIRGINIA TECH—L 31-38768888-55BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 10ASYRACUSE—W 38-24531919+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 17ANC STATE—L 20-31784747-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 31HCHARLOTTE—W 53-19412626+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 7HNORTH CAROLINA#18L 24-56849292-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 28AGEORGIA TECH—L 33-56794242-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 5HMIAMI#22L 0-48898585-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 12AFLORIDA STATE—L 35-56903232+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET4NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
GUNNAR HOLMBERGQB SERET
★3—00%——
7
CHASE BRICEQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
DANIEL KARLINQB SERET
UNR—00%——
15
CHRIS KATRENICKQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
4
ROBERT NELSONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
13
JACK COLYARQB JURET
UNR—00%——
9
GAVIN SPURRIERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET89NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
MATAEO DURANTRB SERET
★3—00%——
7
JORDAN WATERSRB SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
4
DEON JACKSONRB SERET
★3—00%——
29
GRISSIM ANDERSONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
4
MYLES HUDZICKRB SERET
★3—00%——
20
MARVIN HUBBARD IIIRB JURET
★3—00%——
27
NATE KYEI-DONKORRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
22
JAYLEN COLEMANRB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
JAKE MARWEDETE SERET
★3—00%——
1
JONTAVIS ROBERTSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
JAKE BOBOWR SERET
★3—00%——
89
MARK BIRMINGHAMTE SERET
★4—00%——
5
DENNIS SMITHWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
81
NICKY DALMOLINTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
4
ELI PANCOLWR SERET
★3—00%——
3
DARRELL HARDING JR.WR SERET
★3—00%——
82
JARETT GARNERWR SERET
★3—00%——
18
MALIK BOWEN-SIMSWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
87
NOAH GRAYTE SERET
★3—00%——
5
JALON CALHOUNWR SERET
★3—00%——
2
LUCA DIAMONTWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
85
DAMOND PHILYAW-JOHNSONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
60
PATRICK LEITTENTE SERET
★3—00%——
46
AARON WRIGHTTE SERET
UNR—00%——
89
JOE HARDISONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
46
MASON RUSSELLTE JURET
UNR—00%——
82
COLE FINNEYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
80
MATT SMITHTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
84
TREVOR HORTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
10
JAMES HOPSON IIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
EDWIN BARNES IIIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
WILLIAM ROBERTSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
BRENDAN PERNECKYTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LUCA DIAMONTHS RECRUITDUAL★3UNR
GRAHAM BARTONHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
AENEAS PEEBLESHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
JONTAVIS ROBERTSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MALIK BOWEN-SIMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ADDISON PENNHS RECRUITOC★3UNR
DORIAN MAUSI JR.HS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
MICHAEL REESEHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
NICKY DALMOLINHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYLEN STINSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACOB MORGENSTERNTEXAS TECHLB★3UNR
JAVON JACKSONGEORGIA SOUTHERNS★3UNR
AARON YOUNGFLORIDA ATLANTICWRUNRUNR
ANTONE WILLIAMSCHARLOTTEDB★2UNR
BRITTAIN BROWNUCLARB★3UNR
DYLAN SINGLETONELIGIBILITY UPS★4—
EDGAR CERENORDELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
KOBY QUANSAHELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
TRE HORNBUCKLEELIGIBILITY UPDE★3—
AJ REEDELIGIBILITY UPPK★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#61NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8541COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST48% BACK48th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG48% BACK48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR4%4th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE