SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›DUKE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
ACC|DAVID CUTCLIFFE|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
DUKE113 FPIACC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
57FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#580 BC / 18
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
3-9ACTUALvs2.5-9.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-16.9
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ACHARLOTTE—L 28-31371212+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HNORTH CAROLINA A&T—W 45-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 18HNORTHWESTERN—W 30-23691919-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HKANSAS—W 52-334855+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2ANORTH CAROLINA—L 7-38885555-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HGEORGIA TECH—L 27-31772626-13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 16AVIRGINIA—L 0-48625858-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30AWAKE FOREST#15L 7-45557171-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HPITTSBURGH#13L 29-54749494-81BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13AVIRGINIA TECH—L 17-48724747-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HLOUISVILLE—L 22-62586060-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HMIAMI—L 10-47917676-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET7NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
RILEY LEONARDQB SENO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
12
GUNNAR HOLMBERGQB SERET
★3—00%——
4
ROBERT NELSONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
13
JACK COLYARQB JURET
UNR—00%——
9
GAVIN SPURRIERQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET46NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
TRENT DAVISRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
9
JAQUEZ MOORERB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
21
MATAEO DURANTRB SERET
★3—00%——
22
JAYLEN COLEMANRB SERET
★3—00%——
7
JORDAN WATERSRB SERET
★3★400%—ROSE
27
NATE KYEI-DONKORRB SERET
UNR—00%——
89
SCOTT BOYLANRB SEPORTAL · BROWN
UNR—00%——
29
GRISSIM ANDERSONRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
SAHMIR HAGANSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
JAKE MARWEDETE SERET
★3—00%——
1
JONTAVIS ROBERTSONWR SERET
★3—00%——
8
JORDAN MOOREWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
JAKE BOBOWR SERET
★3—00%——
81
NICKY DALMOLINTE SERET
★3—00%——
4
ELI PANCOLWR SERET
★3—00%——
3
DARRELL HARDING JR.WR SERET
★3—00%——
82
JARETT GARNERWR SERET
★3—00%——
18
MALIK BOWEN-SIMSWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
5
JALON CALHOUNWR SERET
★3—00%——
82
COLE FINNEYTE JURET
★3—00%——
2
LUCA DIAMONTWR SORET
★3—00%——
60
PATRICK LEITTENTE SERET
★3—00%——
89
JOE HARDISONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
46
MASON RUSSELLTE JURET
UNR—00%——
80
MATT SMITHTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
84
TREVOR HORTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
ANDREW JONESTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
10
JAMES HOPSON IIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
23
EDWIN BARNES IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
26
WILLIAM ROBERTSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
86
BRENDAN PERNECKYTE SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANDREW JONESHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
RILEY LEONARDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
CAMERON BERGERONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DYLAN MERRELLHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JUSTIN PICKETTHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
NICK MORRIS JR.HS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JORDAN MOOREHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
AARON HALLHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
PLACIDE DJUNGU-SUNGUHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TRE FREEMANHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRIAN FOLEYHOLY CROSSOGUNR★3
JA'MION FRANKLINNOTRE DAMEDTUNR★3
CARSON VAN LYNNPITTSBURGHOT★3★3
DOMINIQUE LONGMICHIGAN STATES★3★3
KADE PARMELLYABILENE CHRISTIANIOLUNRUNR
SCOTT BOYLANBROWNWRUNRUNR
COLBY CAMPBELLPRESBYTERIANILBUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT18 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERRICK TANGELOPENN STATEDT★3★3
MARQUIS WATERSTEXAS TECHDB★3★3
DENNIS SMITHEASTERN MICHIGANWR★3★3
CHASE BRICEAPP STATEQB★3★3
DREW JORDANMICHIGAN STATEDE★4★3
CHRIS KATRENICKEASTERN ILLINOISQB★3★3
DAMOND PHILYAW-JOHNSONJACKSONVILLE STATEWR★3★3
VICTOR DIMUKEJENFL DRAFT R6DE★3—
NOAH GRAYNFL DRAFT R5TE★3—
CHRIS RUMPH IINFL DRAFT R4DE★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#58NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8563COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
78 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST38% BACK38th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG38% BACK38th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR7%7th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE