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HOME›TEAMS›FLORIDA ATLANTIC›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|ZACH KITTLEY|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
FLORIDA ATLANTIC108 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
41FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
50%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
27%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+2IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#850 BC / 19
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT36
CONTINUITY50
DEFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT44
CONTINUITY27
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AMARYLAND—L 7-39634545-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HFLORIDA A&M—W 56-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 13AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 28-38292121+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HMEMPHIS—L 26-55587272-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ARICE—W 27-21231212+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUAB—W 53-332688+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 13-48567979-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25ANAVY#23L 32-4216666-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HTULSA—W 40-21392424+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15ATULANE#18L 24-35516767-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HUCONN—L 45-48306161-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HEAST CAROLINA—L 3-42447373-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB59TAL17PERF59RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
CADEN VELTKAMPQB SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★3★39989%+33HELD
7
ZACH GIBSONQB SEPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE
★3★3569%-3HELD
7
JORDAN MAGWOODQB SONO SNAPS
★3—262%——
15
CARSON CRUVERQB SERET
UNR—50%——
15
MICHAEL VALENTINOQB JURET
UNR—00%——
12
KASEN WEISMANQB SORET
★3★300%-44HELD
▾RB53TAL58PERF53RET95ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
GEMARI SANDSRB JURET
★3★38942%+13HELD
28
KADEN SHIELDS-DUTTONRB JURET
★3—8233%+24—
25
XAVIER TERRELLRB SORET
★3★37220%+30HELD
21
ETHAN ERVINRB SONO SNAPS
★3—414%——
20
JOSHUA HARRIOTTRB SERET
UNR—161%——
36
DARIUS SMITHRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL41PERF50RET44ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
EASTON MESSERWR SEPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
★2★310024%+21ROSE
1
JAYSHON PLATTWR SERET
★3★39821%+11HELD
9
DOMINIQUE HENRYWR SERET
★3★39719%+9HELD
19
ASAAD WASEEMWR JUPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★39417%+17HELD
89
MICHAEL KIRCHTE SEPORTAL · THOMAS MORE COLLEGE
UNR★37877%+16EMERGED
5
JABARI SMITH JR.WR JURET
★3★3676%+33HELD
0
BRANDEN HOCHWR SONO SNAPS
★3—624%+28—
80
JOSEPH YOUNGWR JURET
UNR—563%-39—
6
REID MIKESKATE SOPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA
★3★34412%—HELD
13
MARTAVIOUS COLLINSTE FRPORTAL · UTEP
★3★34211%—HELD
4
QUINCY BROWNWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS STATE
★4★3421%-2FELL
2
JR WILSON JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★3—371%-53—
88
JETT COOLMANWR SERET
UNR—301%——
11
DEVARIUS MITCHELLWR SERET
UNR—301%——
14
JADE CARDWR FRTRUE FR
★3—200%——
89
BROCK KUHLTE SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
87
TAMEZ YOUNGTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
83
MYKEL CALIXTEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
26
CHASE HANNINGWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL55TAL35PERF55RET57n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL46TAL54PERF46RET50n=9 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸LB35TAL52PERF35RET16n=6 · 11 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸DB51TAL39PERF51RET23n=11 · 8 METRICS · 62 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JADE CARDHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CAMERON GOODENHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TAMEZ YOUNGHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BRANDEN HOCHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ZION PARETHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
RAIN BANICKHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
MYKEL CALIXTEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LANDON RAPKIEWICZHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HECTOR CHAVEZHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOSH ROBERTSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DILLION WILLIAMSUTEPS★3★3
QUINCY BROWNTEXAS STATEWR★4★3
TEREZ REIDUTEPCBUNR★3
MADDEN SANKERLOUISVILLEIOL★4★3
DAMIEN ALFORDUTAHWR★3★3
TYCOOLHILL LUMANRUTGERSEDGE★3★3
MICHAEL KIRCHTHOMAS MORE COLLEGETEUNR★3
EASTON MESSERWESTERN KENTUCKYWR★2★3
CHENELLSON EXUMESOUTH FLORIDADL★3★3
MJ HINSON JR.TEXAS SOUTHERNCBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT45 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JORDAN CHURCHLOUISVILLEOL★3★4
CJ HEARDVANDERBILTS★3★3
PHILLIP DUNNAMUCFDB★3★3
WYATT SULLIVANSOUTH FLORIDATE★3★3
CJ CAMPBELL JR.RUTGERSRBUNR★3
CHISOM IFEANYIWYOMINGDEUNR★3
JAYDEN WILLIAMSUCFDB★3★3
CAM FANCHERUCFQB★3★3
ZEKE MOOREBOSTON COLLEGETE★3★3
OMARI HAYESTULANEWRUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES84%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS92%13 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#85NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8427COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3836 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST18% BACK18th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG18% BACK18th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST23%23th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE