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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|MIKE MACINTYRE|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL116 FPICUSA · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
75%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
67%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-6IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1090 BC / 13
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN+0.6
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE8
PERFORMANCE8
TALENT38
CONTINUITY75
DEFENSE19
PERFORMANCE19
TALENT52
CONTINUITY67
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
25MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AINDIANA#10L 7-31599292-75BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 52-16151111+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14AFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 20-38421616+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HMONMOUTH—L 42-45————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 28HLOUISIANA TECH—W 17-10261818-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 8ALIBERTY—L 24-31374747-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 16AUTEP—L 21-301233+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 22HSAM HOUSTON—L 7-10182727-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 34-13777+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 31-3484545-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AKENNESAW STATE—L 26-27522+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 35-241922+15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB40TAL45PERF40RET92ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
KEYONE JENKINSQB SERET
★3★38190%+18HELD
12
CHAYDEN PEERYQB JURET
★3—274%——
3
AMARI JONESQB JURET
★3★2274%—FELL
4
HADEN CARLSONQB JURET
★3—142%-25—
10
CLAYTON DEESQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
ZACHARY WATERSQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB34TAL60PERF34RET53ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KEJON OWENSRB SERET
★3★37634%-11HELD
8
LEXINGTON JOSEPHRB SERET
★3—7533%-11—
2
SHOMARI LAWRENCERB SERET
UNR★26319%-40EMERGED
3
DEVONTE LYONSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—5713%+33—
24
JOSE CORBORB SORET
UNR—00%——
15
T.J. SNOWDENRB SORET
UNR—00%——
30
JORDAN CLEMONSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
36
NATE HENRYRB JURET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL48PERF52RET62ONE OWNERn=7 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
DEAN PATTERSONWR SERET
UNR★39232%+10EMERGED
3
ERIC RIVERSWR SERET
★3★49030%+34ROSE
85
ANTONIO FERGUSONTE JUPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
★3★37755%-1HELD
0
NANA BURRISWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★37015%-16EMERGED
88
JOSIAH MIAMENTE SERET
★3—6535%+12—
19
ROSS FOURNETWR SERET
UNR—629%-48—
3
C'QUAN JNOPIERREWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—577%-35—
8
JUJU LEWISWR JUPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★3★3443%—HELD
80
DESNA WASHINGTONWR SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO
★3★3443%+1HELD
87
BRAIDEN STATENTE SORET
★3—377%——
81
ROCKY BEERSTE SERET
UNR★3243%+19EMERGED
7
KYLE MCNEALWR JURET
★3—201%——
4
JACOBY MATTHEWSWR SERET
UNR—70%——
21
SHABORNE DEMPSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
LUBY MAURICE JR.WR FRRET
★3—00%——
7
MIKE JACKSONWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
84
MAGUIRE ANDERSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JETT LAWWR SORET
UNR—00%——
11
ERIC NELSON JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
DYLAN REDMONWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
27
BRADY HALLWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
ROBERT ROSSITE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
80
ANDRE BROWNWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL41TAL29PERF41RET84n=6 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL18TAL47PERF18RET65n=11 · 8 METRICS · 61 OBS
▸LB21TAL51PERF21RET49n=4 · 10 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DB54TAL57PERF54RET98n=7 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVONTE LYONSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ROBERT WILLIAMSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOSIAH TAYLORHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
NICHOLAS SMITH JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JON RODRIGUEZHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CLAYTON DEESHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
GERMAINE CARTERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JADEN WILLIAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
RAHEIM SEXILHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
SHAMIR STERLINHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DANIEL OGUNDIPEUTSAOTUNR★3
EDDIE WALLS IIIBETHUNE-COOKMANEDGEUNR★3
DESNA WASHINGTONNEW MEXICOWR★3★3
GIOVANNI DAVISUT MARTINEDGE★3★3
JUJU LEWISGEORGIA TECHWR★3★3
JALEEL DAVISNC STATEOT★3★3
NAZEVIAH BURRISSTETSONWRUNR★3
MATHIAS ADJINGBARUKTOWSONIOLUNR★3
BEN SHELLENBACKGREENEVILLEOTUNR★3
ANTONIO FERGUSONEAST CAROLINATE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PHILLIP HOUSTONCOLORADOOLUNR★3
JORDAN GUERADLOUISVILLEDL★3★3
ADRIAN COLEARKANSAS STATECB★3★3
KRIS MITCHELLNOTRE DAMEWR★3★4
WILL PRENDERGASTCOLORADO STATEDL★3UNR
LARRY PRESTONMURRAY STATECBUNRUNR
GRAYSON JAMESBOSTON COLLEGEQB★3★3
LATARIE KINSLERFLORIDA A&MDL★3UNR
CHRISTIAN PEDERSENMOREHEAD STATETE★3★3
D'VERICK DANIELELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES7%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#109NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8271COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1016 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST80% BACK80th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG80% BACK80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR84%84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR92%92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST98%98th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE