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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|WILLIE SIMMONS|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL106 FPICUSA · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
29FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
44%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-13IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#900 BC / 22
BC RATIO
8%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.5
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT37
CONTINUITY44
DEFENSE31
PERFORMANCE31
TALENT42
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
36MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HBETHUNE-COOKMAN—W 42-9————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6APENN STATE—L 0-34939090-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 38-28412828-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HDELAWARE—L 16-3842020+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AUCONN—L 10-51306161-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 14AWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 25-6285050-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 21HKENNESAW STATE—L 26-4543535-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29AMISSOURI STATE—L 21-28721210BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 56-302077+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HLIBERTY—W 34-27392525-4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HJACKSONVILLE STATE—W 27-21203333-12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASAM HOUSTON—W 56-161111+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26AUTSA—L 20-57535555-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB56TAL44PERF56RET61ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
KEYONE JENKINSQB SERET
★3★38161%+12HELD
16
JOE PESANSKYQB SEPORTAL · HOLY CROSS
UNR—7338%-32—
10
CLAYTON DEESQB SORET
★3—151%——
9
CHRISTIAN LANGFORDQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
15
JAKE HELFRICHQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
ZACHARY WATERSQB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾RB25TAL66PERF25RET67ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KEJON OWENSRB SERET
★3★39551%+14HELD
1
ANTHONY CARRIERB SOPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★4★38331%-20FELL
3
DEVONTE LYONSRB SORET
★3—6816%+9—
22
STERLING JOSEPHRB FRTRUE FR
★3—211%——
30
JORDAN CLEMONSRB SORET
UNR—90%——
24
JOSE CORBORB SORET
UNR—00%——
36
NATE HENRYRB JURET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE48TAL39PERF47RET19ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ALEX PERRYWR SEPORTAL · HAWAI'I
★3★39630%+7HELD
0
DALLAS PAYNETE SEPORTAL · UAB
UNR★39043%+22EMERGED
2
MAGUIRE ANDERSONWR JURET
UNR—8522%-10—
7
KYLE MCNEALWR JURET
★3—8521%-28—
9
JACKSON VERDUGOTE SONO SNAPS
★3—7524%-17—
86
JUSTIN CAYENNETE SEPORTAL · PENNSYLVANIA
★3★37524%-30HELD
0
JOJO STONEWR SOPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★36610%+27HELD
6
ERIC NELSON JR.WR SORET
★3—617%-7—
19
ROSS FOURNETWR SERET
UNR—575%-42—
87
BRAIDEN STATENTE SORET
★3—548%——
13
TYSON CARTERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—463%——
3
C'QUAN JNOPIERREWR SERET
UNR—291%+31—
89
SEAN BURKETE FRTRUE FR
★3—191%——
14
KENNY WILLIAMSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—191%——
2
TAR'VARISH DAWSONWR SEPORTAL · JACKSONVILLE STATE
★4★460%-36HELD
12
AMARI ISAACWR SONO SNAPS
★3—60%——
18
ANDRE BROWNWR SORET
UNR—00%——
21
SHABORNE DEMPSWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
8
JUJU LEWISWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
85
DONOVAN GILESWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
81
DYLAN HERMANWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▸OL44TAL30PERF44RET50n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL43TAL42PERF43RET54n=8 · 7 METRICS · 38 OBS
▸LB37TAL46PERF37RET56n=7 · 11 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB52TAL39PERF52RET44n=11 · 6 METRICS · 51 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
STERLING JOSEPHHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
TAKAYLEN MUEXHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
SEAN BURKEHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
ANTHONY SMITHHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
MATTHEW POINTERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
TYSON CARTERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CHRISTIAN LANGFORDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KENNY WILLIAMSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JESSIAH MCGREWHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JACKSON VERDUGOHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANTHONY CARRIEGEORGIA TECHRB★4★3
LAMONT GREEN JR.FLORIDA STATEEDGE★4★3
AARON ARMITAGESTANFORDEDGE★4★3
DANTE ANDERSONFLORIDA STATEEDGE★4★3
ALEX PERRYHAWAI'IWR★3★3
ZAIRE FLOURNOYUABIOL★2★3
JOJO STONELOUISVILLEWR★3★3
DALLAS PAYNEUABTEUNR★3
ANTONIO TRIPP JR.MIAMIIOL★3★3
JULIUS PIERCEMIDDLE TENNESSEEIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOJO EVANS JR.LOUISVILLEDBUNRUNR
HEZEKIAH MASSESCALIFORNIADB★2★3
TRAVIS BURKEMEMPHISOLUNR★3
TRAVION BARNESBAYLORLB★3★3
JADARIOUS LEEKENNESAW STATEOLUNR★3
NAEER JACKSONLOUISVILLEOL★2★3
EDDIE WALLS IIIHOUSTONDLUNR★3
JAMARRION SOLOMONCHARLOTTEDLUNR★3
DEAN PATTERSONGEORGIA TECHWRUNR★3
ERIC RIVERSGEORGIA TECHWR★3★4
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES43%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS83%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#90NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8359COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2336 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
32TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
8
9
5
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-6 TO +5 W
IMPROVED11 OF 32
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST60% BACK60th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG60% BACK60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR50%50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR61%61th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST44%44th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE