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HOME›TEAMS›FLORIDA STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|MIKE NORVELL|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
FLORIDA STATE33 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
87FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
30%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
60%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1913 BC / 23
BC RATIO
46%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.0
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE97
PERFORMANCE97
TALENT83
CONTINUITY30
DEFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT83
CONTINUITY60
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HALABAMA#9W 31-17998686-16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HEAST TEXAS A&M—W 77-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HKENT STATE—W 66-10744+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 26AVIRGINIA#16L 38-46557878-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HMIAMI#2L 22-28909494-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HPITTSBURGH—L 31-34607474-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ASTANFORD—L 13-20671818+52BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1HWAKE FOREST—W 42-7476262+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ACLEMSON—L 10-24967676-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HVIRGINIA TECH—W 34-14722323+47BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 21ANC STATE—L 11-21686060+10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AFLORIDA—L 21-40925454+16BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB62TAL79PERF62RET3ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TOMMY CASTELLANOSQB SENO SNAPS
★3★38691%+23—
9
KEVIN SPERRYQB FRTRUE FR
★4—396%——
11
BROCK GLENNQB JURET
★3★3283%-51HELD
12
MICHAEL GRANTQB JURET
UNR—50%——
14
JAYLEN KINGQB JUPORTAL · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▾RB71TAL78PERF71RET35ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 20 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
27
GAVIN SAWCHUKRB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★38842%0FELL
32
OUSMANE KROMAHRB SONO SNAPS
★4—6818%+18—
12
JAYLIN LUCASRB SERET
★3★35810%+10HELD
3
SAMUEL SINGLETON JR.RB JURET
★4—5710%+30—
5
ROYDELL WILLIAMSRB SERET
★5★4548%-12FELL
26
CAZIAH HOLMESRB SERET
★4★4424%+30HELD
4
KAM DAVISRB SORET
★4★3353%-50FELL
21
ZAY PARKSRB SORET
UNR—343%+30—
30
JEREMIAH JOHNSONRB SORET
UNR—242%+9—
▾WR/TE54TAL85PERF61RET33ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 36 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DUCE ROBINSONWR SEPORTAL · USC
★5★49332%+18FELL
5
RANDY PITTMANTE SENO SNAPS
★3—8957%+21—
8
MICAHI DANZYWR SORET
★4—8223%+26—
7
LAWAYNE MCCOYWR JURET
★4★48223%+15HELD
87
MARKESTON DOUGLASTE SENO SNAPS
★3★37330%+24HELD
4
SQUIRREL WHITEWR SEPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★3★4628%+27ROSE
15
JAYVAN BOGGSWR SONO SNAPS
★4★3607%-20FELL
18
LANDEN THOMASTE JURET
★4★3477%+9FELL
89
GREYSON LABIADTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—343%——
17
ELIJAH MOOREWR SORET
★4★3342%—FELL
85
WILLY SUAREZWR FRRET
UNR—251%——
23
CHASE LOFTINTE FRTRUE FR
★4—242%——
82
TERIQ MALLORYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—201%——
85
LUKE DOUGLASTE JURET
UNR—191%——
10
BJ GIBSONWR SORET
★4—191%——
13
TAE'SHAUN GELSEYWR FRTRUE FR
★4—150%——
6
GAVIN BLACKWELLWR SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★4★3150%-7FELL
88
CAMDON FRIERWR FRRET
★3★360%—HELD
44
GAVIN MARKEYTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL59TAL80PERF59RET24n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL63TAL80PERF63RET42n=10 · 7 METRICS · 56 OBS
▸LB62TAL79PERF62RET65n=6 · 10 METRICS · 44 OBS
▸DB61TAL88PERF61RET71n=8 · 6 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OUSMANE KROMAHHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
KEVIN WYNNHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
JAYVAN BOGGSHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
L A JESSIE HARROLDHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
TYLON LEEHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ZAE THOMASHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
TAE'SHAUN GELSEYHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
DARRYLL DESIRHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
CHASE LOFTINHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
MARIO NASH JR.HS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DUCE ROBINSONUSCWR★5★4
JERRY WILSONHOUSTONCBUNR★4
JAMES WILLIAMSNEBRASKAEDGEUNR★4
LUKE PETITBONWAKE FORESTIOL★3★4
MICAH PETTUSOLE MISSOT★3★4
JAYSON JENKINSTENNESSEEDL★3★4
SQUIRREL WHITETENNESSEEWR★3★4
DEAMONTAE DIGGSCOASTAL CAROLINADLUNR★4
ADRIAN MEDLEYUCFIOL★3★3
GAVIN SAWCHUKOKLAHOMARB★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT47 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PATRICK PAYTONLSUDE★4★4
TJ FERGUSONSYRACUSEOL★4★4
MARVIN JONES JR.OKLAHOMADL★5★4
JAYLEN EARLYMISSOURIOL★4★3
MALIK BENSONOREGONWRUNR★4
GRADY KELLYMICHIGAN STATEDL★3★3
CONRAD HUSSEYOREGON STATEDB★4★4
BYRON TURNER JR.TULSADL★3★3
HYKEEM WILLIAMSCOLORADOWR★5★4
LUKE KROMENHOEKMISSISSIPPI STATEQB★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES59%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS76%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#19NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
13OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8896COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2234 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST34% BACK34th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG34% BACK34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR24%24th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR3%3th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST71%71th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE