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HOME›TEAMS›FRESNO STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
PAC-12|JEFF TEDFORD|—RECORD10-4|CONF—
FRESNO STATE#24 AP 57 FPIPAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
44FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
15%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#720 BC / 17
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-4ACTUALvs9.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.2
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT51
CONTINUITY15
DEFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT49
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HCAL POLY—W 35-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HOREGON STATE#17L 32-35618484-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17AUSC#12L 17-45939292-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AUCONN—L 14-1991515+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8ABOISE STATE—L 20-40486161-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 17-10253737+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22ANEW MEXICO—W 41-91211+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 32-28183636+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HHAWAI'I—W 55-132622+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11AUNLV—W 37-30152222+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19ANEVADA—W 41-142444+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HWYOMING—W 30-0112424+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14DEC 3ABOISE STATE—W 28-16486161-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17HWASHINGTON STATE—W 29-6507272-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB42TAL59PERF42RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
JAKE HAENERQB SERET
★3—8473%+36—
4
LOGAN FIFEQB SERET
★2★36427%+30ROSE
13
JAYLEN HENDERSONQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
6
MATT ROBINSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
16
ALEC TRUJILLOQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
3
JOSHUA WOODQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB25TAL8PERF25RET97ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JORDAN MIMSRB SERET
★2—10074%-7—
23
MALIK SHERRODRB SERET
★3★37623%+4HELD
33
ELIJAH GILLIAMRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—343%+36—
28
JEVON BIGELOWRB SERET
UNR★200%—EMERGED
20
SIMI BAKARERB SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
0
JOHNATHAN ARCENEAUXRB SERET
★3—00%——
6
JUSTIN GUINRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
RYAN WARKENTINRB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE51TAL64PERF54RET75ONE OWNERn=10 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
JALEN MORENO-CROPPERWR SERET
★4—9828%+24—
87
RAYMOND PAUWELSTE SERET
UNR—8947%-10—
1
NIKKO REMIGIOWR SENO SNAPS
★4—8920%+27—
2
ZANE POPEWR SERET
★3—8920%+15—
3
ERIK BROOKSWR SERET
UNR—7915%+1—
86
JAKE BOUSTTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—7632%——
84
TRE WATSONTE SERET
★3★36018%-16HELD
3
JOSH KELLYWR SERET
★3★4606%+19ROSE
MAC DALENAWR SERET
★3—596%-31—
8
TY JONESWR SERET
★3★3555%+10HELD
15
KAMRON BEACHEMTE SERET
★3★3292%—HELD
89
JARED TORRESTE SERET
UNR—101%——
4
EMORYIE EDWARDSWR SERET
★3—00%-5—
80
ZACH HARTSFIELDTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JORDAN BROWNWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
JALEN MOSSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
10
ISAIAH BATTONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
CADEN RODGERSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JOSHUA JOHNSONWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
13
NATHAN ACEVEDOWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
5
JOSIAH FREEMANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL48TAL48PERF48RET28n=8 · 3 METRICS · 24 OBS
▸DL34TAL42PERF34RET72n=12 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
▸LB34TAL29PERF34RET92n=4 · 10 METRICS · 22 OBS
▸DB48TAL72PERF48RET64n=11 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JALEN MOSSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOSHUA WOODHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JACOB HOLMESHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JOMARION BRIGGSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
MILES BAILEYHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
NATHAN ACEVEDOHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARCUS SIMIENHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
NATE MAIERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TIM THOMASHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MERHAUTI XEPERAHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WYLAN FREEGEORGIA SOUTHERNDB★3UNR
JORDAN WILMOREUTAH STATERB★4★3
RYAN BOEHMELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
DARON BLANDELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
KEVIN ATKINSELIGIBILITY UPDT★2—
TYSON MAEVAELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
DEONTE PERRYELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
JACOB WESTBERRYELIGIBILITY UPLSUNR—
KENNY GAGNONELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
ARRON MOSBYELIGIBILITY UPDE★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#72NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8296COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST79% BACK79th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG79% BACK79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR28%28th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST64%64th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE