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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
PAC-12|TIM SKIPPER|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
FRESNO STATE77 FPIPAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
36FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
81%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
86%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#860 BC / 17
BC RATIO
1%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.0
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE11
PERFORMANCE11
TALENT35
CONTINUITY81
DEFENSE65
PERFORMANCE65
TALENT45
CONTINUITY86
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31AMICHIGAN—L 10-30898181-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HSACRAMENTO STATE—W 46-304———NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 48-0777+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ANEW MEXICO—W 38-21151414+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AUNLV#23L 14-59397474-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HWASHINGTON STATE—L 17-25464949-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ANEVADA—W 24-21231313+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HSAN JOSÉ STATE—W 33-10163232+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HHAWAI'I—L 20-21222020+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9AAIR FORCE—L 28-3611717+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HCOLORADO STATE—W 28-22303030+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30AUCLA—L 13-20804444-7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—L 20-28103838-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB42TAL47PERF42RET91ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
MIKEY KEENEQB SERET
★3★39091%+36HELD
3
JOSHUA WOODQB SORET
★3★3377%+23HELD
7
JAYDEN MANDALQB JURET
★3—232%——
19
JOSEPH CAMPBELLQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
JACK JACOBSQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
13
DASHIELL WEAVERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB45TAL25PERF45RET71ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
33
ELIJAH GILLIAMRB SERET
UNR—8944%-4—
6
BRYSON DONELSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—8029%+26—
23
MALIK SHERRODRB SERET
★3★37220%-7HELD
0
JOHNATHAN ARCENEAUXRB SERET
★3—527%-38—
20
DEVON RIVERSRB SORET
★3—00%-50—
32
CHARLES GREER JR.RB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
27
RYAN WARKENTINRB JURET
★2—00%——
31
BRANDON RAMIREZRB JURET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL43PERF43RET61ROTATIONn=8 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
MAC DALENAWR SERET
★3—9730%+16—
18
JALEN MOSSWR SERET
★3★39526%+3HELD
6
RAYLEN SHARPEWR SEPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE
★3★38822%+4HELD
84
RICHIE ANDERSON IIITE SERET
★3★38443%-25HELD
86
JAKE BOUSTTE SERET
UNR—7228%-35—
15
KAMRON BEACHEMTE SERET
★3★36117%-4HELD
81
JORDAN BROWNWR SERET
★3—544%-24—
4
TIM GREAR JR.WR SERET
UNR★3534%-21EMERGED
87
JAKE TARWATERTE SERET
UNR—5211%——
5
JOSIAH FREEMANWR SERET
UNR★3524%+16EMERGED
13
NATHAN ACEVEDOWR SERET
★3★3524%—HELD
4
CHEDON JAMESWR JUPORTAL · IDAHO STATE
★3★3513%—HELD
10
LYNDON RAVAREWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3483%—EMERGED
89
BROCK LIUMTE JURET
★3—272%——
2
ANTOINE SULLIVANWR JURET
UNR★2150%—EMERGED
80
DREW CARLSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
JAKE PARNAGIANWR SOPORTAL · WASHINGTON
UNR★300%—EMERGED
36
JOE DALENAWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
10
JORDAN MALAU'ULUWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
30
JACE NIXONTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
KARIM MCCUNE IIWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
▸OL44TAL28PERF44RET94n=9 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL30TAL37PERF30RET81n=10 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB35TAL68PERF35RET99n=3 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB54TAL44PERF54RET85n=10 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAMARRION WHITEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MARSHEL SANDERSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
LOYALL MOUZONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
LOGAN STUDTHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
CAM COLEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JORDAN MALAU'ULUHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARSEL AKINSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
ETHAN DASMANNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
KIONTRE HARRISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JORDAN PIERROHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN7 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KOREY FOREMANUSCEDGE★5★4
RAYLEN SHARPEMISSOURI STATEWR★3★3
DEIJON LAFFITTEUSCDL★3★3
CHEDON JAMESIDAHO STATEWR★3★3
RJ REGANARIZONA STATECB★3★3
JAIRUS SATELESAN JOSÉ STATEDL★3★3
JAKE PARNAGIANWASHINGTONWRUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT20 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TRE WATSONTEXAS A&MTE★3★3
KEMARI MUNIER-BAILEYWEBER STATEDL★2★3
RAYMOND SCOTTJAMES MADISONLB★4★3
LOGAN FIFEMONTANAQB★2★3
JALEN WILLIAMSSACRAMENTO STATES★3★3
ARTIS COLEUL MONROEWRUNR★2
MORICE NORRIS JR.ELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
LEVELLE BAILEYELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
JACOB ISAIAELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
CARLTON JOHNSONELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES11%2 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS44%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#86NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8342COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
711 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR91%91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST85%85th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE