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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SEC|KIRBY SMART|—RECORD13-1|CONF—
GEORGIA#4 AP 6 FPISEC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
99FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
73%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
85%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#222 BC / 26
BC RATIO
73%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs11.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+21.8
12 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE98
PERFORMANCE98
TALENT93
CONTINUITY73
DEFENSE98
PERFORMANCE98
TALENT91
CONTINUITY85
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
65MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2HUT MARTIN—W 48-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HBALL STATE—W 45-3201111+88BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HSOUTH CAROLINA—W 24-14856262+37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HUAB—W 49-21291212+87BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AAUBURN—W 27-20887373+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 7HKENTUCKY—W 51-13788484+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AVANDERBILT—W 37-20581717+82BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28AFLORIDA—W 43-20907070+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HMISSOURI#8W 30-21839393+6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HOLE MISS—W 52-17849292+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ATENNESSEE#17W 38-10899090+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AGEORGIA TECH—W 31-23745151+48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 2AALABAMA#5L 24-271009595+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30AFLORIDA STATE#6W 63-3869494+5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB79TAL99PERF79RET95ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
CARSON BECKQB SERET
★4★49491%+39HELD
14
GUNNER STOCKTONQB SERET
★4—345%——
12
BROCK VANDAGRIFFQB JURET
★5★4294%—FELL
26
COLLIN DRAKEQB JURET
UNR—00%——
16
JACKSON MUSCHAMPQB JURET
★3—00%——
27
SAM BUSHQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB71TAL92PERF72RET88ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
30
DAIJUN EDWARDSRB SERET
★4—9549%+5—
2
KENDALL MILTONRB SERET
★4—8128%+26—
32
CASH JONESRB SERET
★5—589%+30—
0
ANDREW PAULRB SERET
★3★3507%+6HELD
2
RODERICK ROBINSON IIRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—455%+34—
SEVAUGHN CLARKRB SERET
UNR—272%-25—
41
LEN'NETH WHITEHEADRB FRPORTAL · TENNESSEE
★4★400%—HELD
22
BRANSON ROBINSONRB JURET
★4★300%-18FELL
45
JACOB HARDIERB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE88TAL89PERF83RET67ROTATIONn=8 · 8 METRICS · 52 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
BROCK BOWERSTE JURET
★4—9244%+33—
4
OSCAR DELPTE SERET
★4—9041%+16—
6
DOMINIC LOVETTWR SEPORTAL · MISSOURI
★4★48623%+30HELD
86
DILLON BELLWR SERET
★3—7416%-12—
7
RARA THOMASWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★37315%+15FELL
1
MARCUS ROSEMY-JACKSAINTWR SERET
★4—7114%+22—
84
LADD MCCONKEYWR JURET
★3—6511%+33—
11
ARIAN SMITHWR SERET
★5—597%+10—
7
LAWSON LUCKIETE SENO SNAPS
★4—559%——
4
MEKHI MEWSWR SERET
UNR★3484%-53EMERGED
1
CJ SMITHWR SERET
★4★3484%—FELL
3
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWR SENO SNAPS
★4★3453%—FELL
18
PEARCE SPURLIN IIITE JUNO SNAPS
★4★3434%—FELL
7
JACKSON MEEKSWR SERET
★3★3301%-30HELD
83
COLE SPEERWR SERET
★3—281%——
85
DREW SHEEHANTE SERET
UNR—261%——
8
ZEED HAYNESWR FRTRUE FR
★4★3221%—FELL
82
TYLER WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
★4★4211%—HELD
29
LUKE BENNETTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
31
GRANT BRISCOEWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
8
DE'NYLON MORRISSETTEWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
46
GEORGE VININGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
48
COOPER JOHNSONTE JURET
UNR—00%——
44
CADE BROCKTE JURET
★2—00%——
39
PARKER JONESWR SORET
★3—00%——
82
TYLER J. WILLIAMSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR★400%—EMERGED
47
WILL TAYLORWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
IZAYAH REEVESWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
5
BRAXTON HICKSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
39
MILES THORNTONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
82
LOGAN JOHNSONWR SORET
★3★200%—FELL
80
BRANDON MOODYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
41
DAVID LALAIANTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
WALTER BLANCHARDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
MAREK BRILEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL78TAL96PERF78RET60n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL65TAL90PERF65RET87n=11 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB62TAL94PERF62RET70n=9 · 11 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸DB82TAL89PERF82RET93n=11 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAMON WILSON IIHS RECRUITEDGE★5UNR
RAYLEN WILSONHS RECRUITLB★5UNR
MONROE FREELINGHS RECRUITOT★5UNR
JOENEL AGUEROHS RECRUITS★5UNR
JORDAN HALLHS RECRUITDL★5UNR
A.J. HARRISHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
SAM M'PEMBAHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
GABE HARRIS JR.HS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
CJ ALLENHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
PEARCE SPURLIN IIIHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN3 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DOMINIC LOVETTMISSOURIWR★4★4
SMOKE BOUIETEXAS A&MCB★4★4
RARA THOMASMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT25 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RIAN DAVISUCFLB★4★3
BEAR ALEXANDERUSCDL★4★4
TREZMEN MARSHALLALABAMALB★4★4
DOMINICK BLAYLOCKGEORGIA TECHWR★4★3
ADONAI MITCHELLTEXASWR★4★5
BILL NORTONARIZONADL★4★3
MJ SHERMANNEBRASKALB★4★4
RYLAND GOEDEMISSISSIPPI STATETE★4★3
BRETT SEITHERGEORGIA TECHTE★3★3
CHRISTOPHER SMITHELIGIBILITY UPDB★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES39%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS35%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#2NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
22OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9406COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
415 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST45% BACK45th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG45% BACK45th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR60%60th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST93%93th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE