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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2020 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN ELLIOTT|—RECORD5-4|CONF—
GEORGIA STATE91 FPISBC · 2020 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1100 BC / 17
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-4ACTUALvs4.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.2
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE9 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
44MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
3SEP 19HLOUISIANA#15L 31-34267474-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 3HEAST CAROLINA—W 49-29491616+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15AARKANSAS STATE—L 52-59292828+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 24ATROY—W 36-34195959-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 31HCOASTAL CAROLINA#14L 0-5187272-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 7HUL MONROE—W 52-341766+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 14AAPP STATE—L 13-17267979-50BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 21ASOUTH ALABAMA—W 31-14151515+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 28HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 30-24214848-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET7NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
MIKELE COLASURDOQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
10
CORNELIOUS BROWN IVQB SERET
★3—00%——
12
KIERSTON HARVEYQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET38NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DESTIN COATESRB SERET
★3—00%——
26
TUCKER GREGGRB SERET
UNR—00%——
31
MAKARI PRUITTRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
SETH PAIGERB JURET
★2—00%——
9
MARCUS CARROLLRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
21
JAMYEST WILLIAMSRB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
27
AHIJAH BLACKWELLRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
25
DAWSON HILLRB SERET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
88
AUBRY PAYNETE SERET
★2—00%——
5
ROGER CARTERTE SERET
★3—00%——
TERRANCE DIXONWR SERET
★2★200%—HELD
5
CADARRIUS THOMPSONWR SERET
★2—00%——
35
HERMAN MCCRAYTE JURET
★2—00%——
15
SAM PINCKNEYWR SERET
★3—00%——
1
JAMARI THRASHWR JURET
★3★400%—ROSE
6
JONATHAN IFEDIWR SERET
★2—00%——
80
MATLIN MARSHALLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
5
CORNELIUS MCCOYWR SERET
★3—00%——
19
KERRYON RICHARDSONWR JURET
★2—00%——
87
DONAVON GRIERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
74
DESPELADO ALEXANDRETE JURET
★3—00%——
81
SPENCER GADDISWR JURET
★3—00%——
9
JACOB FREEMANWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
82
MAYSOE WILEYWR SORET
★3—00%——
13
CHRISTIAN THOMASWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
0
TALIQUE WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
KRIS BYRDTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
AHMON GREENTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
30
SAM ELEGREETWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
14
ROBERT LEWISWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
89
KELLAN AUTENRIETHWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
LUKE PURNELLTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACOB FREEMANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ROBERT LEWISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TERRELL GORDONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JEFF MILLERHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
CHANDLER DURHAMHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JUSTIN ABRAHAMHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
MIKELE COLASURDOHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
TAILIQUE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JALEN TATEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
MARCUS CARROLLHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ED CURNEYELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
BRANDON WRIGHTELIGIBILITY UPPKUNR—
HUNTER ATKINSONELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
KHAI ANDERSONELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
TRA BARNETTELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
DEVIN GENTRYELIGIBILITY UPWR★2—
REMY LAZARUSELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
TERRY THOMASELIGIBILITY UPDE★2—
JALEN WADEELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
DAN ELLINGTONELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#110NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8262COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST36% BACK36th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG36% BACK36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR7%7th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE