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HOME›TEAMS›GEORGIA STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|SHAWN ELLIOTT|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
GEORGIA STATE100 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
37FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
78%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1160 BC / 14
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.0
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE47
PERFORMANCE47
TALENT40
CONTINUITY78
DEFENSE28
PERFORMANCE28
TALENT33
CONTINUITY59
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
45MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HRHODE ISLAND—W 42-35————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HUCONN—W 35-14331010+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16ACHARLOTTE—W 41-254333+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ACOASTAL CAROLINA—W 30-17394949-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30HTROY—L 7-28278181-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HMARSHALL—W 41-24312626+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ALOUISIANA—W 20-17315353-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 27-44233939-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HJAMES MADISON—L 14-4258686-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HAPP STATE—L 14-42396161-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ALSU#12L 14-56969292-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25AOLD DOMINION—L 24-25122323+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 23AUTAH STATE—W 45-22252020+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB70TAL37PERF70RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
DARREN GRAINGERQB SERET
UNR—9098%+16—
10
MIKELE COLASURDOQB JURET
★3★3212%—HELD
BRAYLEN RAGLANDQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
12
BRYSON HARRISONQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB48TAL76PERF48RET91ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
MARCUS CARROLLRB SERET
★3★39981%-6HELD
17
KZ ADAMSRB JURET
★3★3549%-59HELD
25
FREDDIE BROCK IVRB SENO SNAPS
★3—539%+40—
28
TERRY BERDIN JR.RB SENO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
18
JAY DIXONRB SORET
★3—00%——
24
JAYLEN FOSTERRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
26
ISRAEL OKE-DIRANRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE41TAL40PERF54RET81ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
ROBERT LEWISWR SERET
★3★39229%+29HELD
7
AHMON GREENTE SERET
★3★38773%-27HELD
0
TALIQUE WILLIAMSWR SERET
★3—8021%+23—
5
CADARRIUS THOMPSONWR SERET
★2—7820%-31—
9
JACARI CARTERWR JUPORTAL · MERRIMACK
UNR—7015%-1—
8
JA'CYAIS CREDLEWR SERET
★3★3609%+3HELD
0
PETER KIKWATAWR JUPORTAL · OLD DOMINION
★3★3515%-49HELD
84
KRIS BYRDTE JURET
★3—5014%-20—
81
AVION MCBRIDETE SERET
★3—418%——
9
DORIAN FLEMINGTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3366%—HELD
12
RICO ARNOLDWR SEPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS
★2★2281%+18HELD
83
LAMARCUS BRANDWR JURET
UNR—150%-60—
6
RYKEM LANEYWR SERET
UNR★360%—EMERGED
13
DARIUS BUSHWR JUPORTAL · UCONN
★3★260%—FELL
86
EZEQIEL MARIONWR JURET
★2—00%——
5
QUENTIN THOMASWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
42
ETHAN GARRETTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
TARANCE BREEDLOVEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
83
BROOKS HICKMANWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL31PERF54RET72n=6 · 3 METRICS · 16 OBS
▸DL57TAL31PERF57RET48n=7 · 7 METRICS · 36 OBS
▸LB52TAL32PERF52RET75n=8 · 11 METRICS · 57 OBS
▸DB35TAL37PERF35RET59n=8 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAYLEN RAGLANDHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
QUENTIN THOMASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MARLON MCCLENDONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DORIAN FLEMINGHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CAM MARSHALLHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JUDE TINORHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
BRYSON HARRISONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ALI ABDUL-HAKEEMHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JAYLEN JONESHS RECRUITS★3UNR
SHAWN BURTON JR.HS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COLIN HENRICHSOUTH CAROLINAOT★3★3
FREDDIE BROCKMAINERBUNR★3
PETER KIKWATAOLD DOMINIONWR★3★3
HENRY BRYANTLOUISVILLEDL★3★3
COREY WARRENCOASTAL CAROLINADL★3★2
TAVIAN BROWNCOLORADO STATELB★3★2
DARIUS BUSHUCONNWR★3★2
TREVOR TIMMONSCHARLOTTEIOL★3★2
KEVIN SWINTCLEMSONEDGE★4★4
JOSIAH ROBINSONCOASTAL CAROLINALB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ANTAVIOUS LANENORTH CAROLINADB★3★3
BRYSON BROADWAYGEORGIA SOUTHERNOLUNR★2
THOMAS GOREMIAMIDL★2★3
JAMIL MUHAMMADUSCDE★3★3
JEFF CLARKLOUISVILLEDL★2UNR
JAMARI THRASHLOUISVILLEWR★3★4
LUIS CRISTOBAL JR.MIAMIOL★3UNR
JOHNATHAN BASSCHARLOTTEOL★2★2
AKEEM SMITHSAM HOUSTONDL★3★3
JAMARION ELLISALABAMA A&MDL★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES48%4 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS41%4 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#116NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8243COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1920 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST67% BACK67th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG67% BACK67th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR72%72th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST59%59th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE