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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|TIMMY CHANG|—RECORD5-8|CONF—
HAWAI'I123 FPIMWC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1170 BC / 18
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-8ACTUALvs3.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-10.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.6. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE13
PERFORMANCE13
TALENT39
CONTINUITY65
DEFENSE21
PERFORMANCE21
TALENT35
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26AVANDERBILT—L 28-35581717-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 1HSTANFORD—L 24-37741919-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HUALBANY—W 31-20————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16AOREGON#6L 10-55939898-90BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 20-17174545-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AUNLV—L 20-44145555-47BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HSAN DIEGO STATE—L 34-41262222-14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21ANEW MEXICO—L 21-421577+1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 28HSAN JOSÉ STATE—L 0-35384242-34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ANEVADA—W 27-142811+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HAIR FORCE—W 27-1316767-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AWYOMING—L 9-42114242-34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HCOLORADO STATE—W 27-24222727-19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB35TAL44PERF36RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
BRAYDEN SCHAGERQB SERET
★3★310099%-8HELD
4
JAKE FARRELLQB SERET
UNR—191%——
19
DALEN MORRISQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%+43—
18
JOEY YELLENQB SERET
★4★300%-51FELL
6
JONAH CHONGQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR★200%—EMERGED
9
JOHN-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB20TAL30PERF20RET43ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
30
LANDON SIMSRB SERET
UNR—6941%+20—
11
JORDAN JOHNSONRB SORET
★3★35621%+23HELD
10
DAVID CORDERORB SERET
UNR—5016%-31—
1
TYLAN HINESRB JURET
★3★3421%+35HELD
22
NASJZAE BRYANT-LELEIRB SERET
UNR—4410%-18—
38
DEREK BOYD IIRB FRRET
★3—00%——
33
BROCK HEDANIRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE27TAL39PERF27RET55ROTATIONn=10 · 7 METRICS · 65 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
POFELE ASHLOCKWR SERET
UNR—9919%+12—
7
STEVEN MCBRIDEWR SEPORTAL · KANSAS
★3★39819%+27HELD
23
KOALI NISHIGAYAWR SERET
★2★29014%-36HELD
9
ALEX PERRYWR SERET
★3★38412%+15HELD
3
NICK CENACLEWR SERET
UNR—738%-15—
1
JONAH PANOKEWR SERET
★3—656%+5—
4
JALEN WALTHALLWR SORET
UNR★3656%-25EMERGED
11
KARSYN PUPUNUWR SERET
UNR—635%-55—
84
CHUUKY HINESWR SORET
UNR—625%-46—
8
TAMATOA MOKIAO-ATIMALALAWR SERET
★3—543%-49—
17
GREYSON MORGANTE JURET
UNR—5243%-16—
9
DEVON TAUAEFATE SERET
★3—4732%——
45
KILA KAMAKAWIWO'OLETE SERET
★2—4325%——
9
STEVEN FISOWR SERET
★3—240%——
80
EDDIE OSEI-NKETIAWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—121%——
46
KALANIKAU KAMAKAWIWO'OLETE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
OAKIE SALAVE'ATE SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★300%—HELD
22
CHAD OWENS JR.WR FRRET
UNR—00%——
88
MACLANE WATKINSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
86
CARLITO CAPANANG JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
46
MATTHEW BAILIFFTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
NICK DELGADILLOWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
42
TRAVION WILLIAMSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL24TAL38PERF25RET64n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL49TAL28PERF49RET83n=11 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB53TAL32PERF53RET76n=5 · 10 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸DB46TAL37PERF46RET63n=9 · 6 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAINOA CARVALHOHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ELIJAH PALMERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DOMATA PEKO JR.HS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JOHN-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAMIH OTISHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
VAIFANUA PEKOHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ISAAC MAUGALEOOHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JUNIOR FIAUIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
AIDEN MCCOMBERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
HA’AHEO DELA CRUZHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
PATRICK HISATAKECALIFORNIALB★3★3
OAKIE SALAVE'ACOLORADOS★3★3
CAMERON STONEWYOMINGCBUNR★3
STEVEN MCBRIDEKANSASWR★3★3
JOSHUA ATKINSHOUSTONOTUNR★3
ELIJAH ROBINSONEAST CAROLINAEDGE★2★3
KUAO PEIHOPAWASHINGTONDL★3★3
JOSH JEROMEEASTERN WASHINGTONDLUNR★2
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT28 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
AUSTIN HOPPELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
ILM MANNINGELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
MICAH VANTERPOOLELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
PENEI PAVIHIELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
MALIK HAUSMANELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
HUGH NELSON IIELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
BLESSMAN TA'ALAELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
CALEB PHILLIPSELIGIBILITY UPTE★2—
STEPHAN BERNAL-WENDTELIGIBILITY UPOLUNR—
DEDRICK PARSONELIGIBILITY UPRBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES66%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS59%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#117NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8134COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
89 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST66% BACK66th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG66% BACK66th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR64%64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST63%63th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE