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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|TIMMY CHANG|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
HAWAI'I87 FPIMWC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
13FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
84%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
70%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1240 BC / 11
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.0
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE31
PERFORMANCE31
TALENT43
CONTINUITY84
DEFENSE26
PERFORMANCE26
TALENT40
CONTINUITY70
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
37MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 23HSTANFORD—W 23-20671818+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1AUG 30AARIZONA—L 6-40528080-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HSAM HOUSTON—W 37-201111+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HPORTLAND STATE—W 23-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HFRESNO STATE—L 21-23355151-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AAIR FORCE—W 44-3504141+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11HUTAH STATE—W 44-26184242+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ACOLORADO STATE—W 31-193499+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 38-45211313+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 38-6386969-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 21AUNLV—L 10-38645959-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HWYOMING—W 27-7151919+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 24HCALIFORNIA—W 35-31744141+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB41TAL49PERF41RET79ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
MICAH ALEJADOQB SORET
★3—9779%+31—
3
LUKE WEAVERQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★36820%-11EMERGED
6
DERMARICUS DAVISQB FRTRUE FR
★4★4100%——
18
CALEB FREEMANQB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾RB49TAL28PERF49RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
30
LANDON SIMSRB SERET
UNR—9355%+14—
0
CAM BARFIELDRB SERET
★3★38135%+23HELD
47
CHRISTIAN VAUGHNRB SERET
UNR—445%+28—
10
DAVID CORDERORB SERET
UNR—404%-34—
26
SITANI MIKAELERB SORET
UNR—00%——
31
TRYTON KELI'IKIPIRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE25TAL54PERF25RET66ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
POFELE ASHLOCKWR SERET
UNR—10023%+6—
11
KARSYN PUPUNUWR SERET
UNR—9516%-36—
4
JACKSON HARRISWR JUPORTAL · STANFORD
★4★39215%+29FELL
8
BRANDON WHITEWR SENO SNAPS
★3★39215%-23HELD
3
NICK CENACLEWR SERET
UNR—8311%-14—
8
TAMA UILIATAWR SORET
★2—7910%-33—
9
DEVON TAUAEFATE SERET
★3—6489%+6—
18
BLAZE KAMOKUWR SERET
UNR—604%-27—
7
MAX WAREWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—604%-60—
17
NICK DELGADILLOWR JURET
★3—512%——
45
MICAH KAONOHI-KAIHENUITE SERET
UNR—2910%——
13
KOA ELDREDGEWR SEPORTAL · BYU
★3★3271%—HELD
4
JOEY FARTHINGWR JUPORTAL · YOUNGSTOWN STATE
★2★2110%—HELD
22
TITAN LACADENWR FRTRUE FR
★3—60%——
81
FRANK ABREUTE FRTRUE FR
★3—01%——
6
KAINOA CARVALHOWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
40
JEREMIAH WRIGHTTE FRRET
★2—00%——
85
OAKIE SALAVE'ATE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
46
MATTHEW BAILIFFTE JURET
UNR—00%——
14
JARVIS HEIMULIWR SORET
★2—00%——
83
JOSIAH FETUIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
88
ALAN CORDANOWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL45TAL37PERF45RET96n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL59TAL45PERF59RET48n=11 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB46TAL44PERF46RET85n=4 · 10 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DB45TAL38PERF45RET82n=9 · 6 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ULUAKI TAUKIUVEAHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
TITAN LACADENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AISIAH PAOGOFIEHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JARRET NIELSENHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KAWIKA HALLUMSHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JORDAN KERNAGHANHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRANDON GAEAHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ZADEN MARITERAGIHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
FALELUA MOALELEHS RECRUITDL★2UNR
BRAYTON CORREAHS RECRUITSUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DERMARICUS DAVISUCLAQBUNR★3
JACKSON HARRISSTANFORDWR★4★3
JOEY FARTHINGYOUNGSTOWN STATEWR★2★3
ZION ALLENSOUTHERN UTAHCB★3★3
BRANDON WHITEKENTUCKYWRUNR★3
SEMAJ JAMESTROYCBUNR★3
TIM MALOBROWNS★2★3
KA'EO AKANAUTAHEDGE★3★3
KOA ELDREDGEBYUWR★3★3
LUTHER MCCOYMINNESOTADL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT34 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KA'ENA DECAMBRAARIZONAOLUNR★3
CALEB BROWNVIRGINIA TECHDBUNR★3
DION WASHINGTONBOISE STATEDL★2★3
ALEX PERRYFLORIDA INTERNATIONALWR★3★3
MALACHI FINAUSAN DIEGO STATEDL★3★3
DEKEL CROWDUSWISCONSINWR★4★3
TYLAN HINESTARLETON STATERB★3★3
JOHN-KEAWE SAGAPOLUTELEPORTLAND STATEQB★3★3
CAM STONEELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
SERGIO MUASAUELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES55%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS45%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#124NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8211COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1325 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST35% BACK35th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG35% BACK35th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST82%82th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE