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● LIVE|2018 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ILLINOIS›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
BIG TEN|LOVIE SMITH|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
ILLINOIS98 FPIB1G · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
58FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#542 BC / 26
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-13.4
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HKENT STATE—W 31-241844+22BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HWESTERN ILLINOIS—W 34-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 15HSOUTH FLORIDA—L 19-25553636-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HPENN STATE#17L 24-63928989-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6ARUTGERS—W 38-17571717+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HPURDUE—L 7-46496767-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20AWISCONSIN—L 20-49758686-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27AMARYLAND—L 33-63835555-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3HMINNESOTA—W 55-31666666-40BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10ANEBRASKA—L 35-54826262-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17HIOWA#25L 0-63708383-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 24ANORTHWESTERN#21L 16-24694848-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
M.J. RIVERSQB —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
1
AJ BUSHQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
CAM MILLERQB JURET
UNR—00%——
8
M.J. RIVERS IIQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
6
MATT ROBINSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
1
AJ BUSH JR.QB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET70NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
DRE BROWNRB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
REGGIE CORBINRB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
RA'VON BONNERRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
20
KENYON SIMSRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
26
MIKE EPSTEINRB SERET
★3—00%——
29
JAKARI NORWOODRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
23
CONNER LILLIGRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
CALEB REAMSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
10
JUSTICE WILLIAMSTE SERET
★3—00%——
15
TRENARD DAVISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
BOBBY WALKERTE SERET
UNR—00%——
6
DOMINIC STAMPLEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
MIKE DUDEKWR SERET
UNR—00%——
36
AUSTIN ROBERTSTE SERET
UNR—00%——
9
SAM MAYSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
RICKY SMALLINGWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
5
CARMONI GREENWR SORET
★3—00%——
80
EDWIN CARTERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
JORDAN HOLMESWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
42
MICHAEL MARCHESETE SERET
UNR—00%——
11
CARLOS SANDYWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
9
DANIEL BARKERTE 5TNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
GRIFFIN PALMERTE JURET
★3—00%——
14
DRAKE DAVISWR JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
19
LOU DORSEYTE SORET
UNR—00%——
80
DONNY NAVARRO IIIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
CAM STACYWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
SHAEDON MEADORSWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
BRANDON JONESTE —RET
★3—00%——
37
ZAC HOLMANWR —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CALVIN AVERYHS RECRUITDT★4UNR
VERDIS BROWNHS RECRUITOC★4UNR
REUBEN UNIJEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CORAN TAYLORHS RECRUITDUAL★3UNR
KHALAN TOLSONHS RECRUITOLB★3UNR
JORDYN SLAUGHTERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MJ RIVERS IIHS RECRUITDUAL★3UNR
KIEVAN MYERSHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
JULIAN PEARLHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CARLOS SANDYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SEAN ADESANYACENTRAL MICHIGANDLUNRUNR
PATRICK NELSONSMUDBUNRUNR
CHRIS JAMESSTEPHEN F. AUSTINWRUNRUNR
FRANK SUMPTEREASTERN KENTUCKYDBUNRUNR
HARVEY CLAYTON JR.DUQUESNEDB★2UNR
CHRISTION ABERCROMBIETENNESSEE STATELB★3UNR
JEFF GEORGE JR.PITTSBURGHQBUNRUNR
TRE WATSONMARYLANDLBUNRUNR
TITO ODENIGBOMIAMIDLUNRUNR
SEAN MILLSELIGIBILITY UPLSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#54NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8359COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
16TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
2
2
6
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-0.3 TO +3.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +9 W
IMPROVED11 OF 16
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST37% BACK37th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG37% BACK37th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE