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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›ILLINOIS›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
BIG TEN|BRET BIELEMA|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
ILLINOIS67 FPIB1G · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
64FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#730 BC / 18
BC RATIO
11%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.8
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28HNEBRASKA—W 30-22827373-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1SEP 4HUTSA—L 30-37445656-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11AVIRGINIA—L 14-42625858-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HMARYLAND—L 17-20775454-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25APURDUE—L 9-13677373-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HCHARLOTTE—W 24-14371212+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HWISCONSIN—L 0-24859595-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23APENN STATE—W 20-18898686-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HRUTGERS—L 14-20543333+18BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6AMINNESOTA—W 14-6698787-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20AIOWA#23L 23-33708080-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27HNORTHWESTERN—W 47-14691919+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET95NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ARTUR SITKOWSKIQB JUPORTAL · RUTGERS
★3★300%—HELD
18
BRANDON PETERSQB SERET
★4—00%——
6
MATT ROBINSONQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
10
SAMARI COLLIERQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET98NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JOSH MCCRAYRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
23
REGGIE LOVE IIIRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
22
CHASE HAYDENRB SEPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA
★4★300%—FELL
26
MIKE EPSTEINRB SERET
★3—00%——
29
JAKARI NORWOODRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
2
CHASE BROWNRB JURET
★2—00%——
24
NICK FEDANZORB JURET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
CASEY WASHINGTONWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
22
DEUCE SPANNWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
89
TIP REIMANTE JURET
UNR—00%——
82
LUKE FORDTE SERET
UNR—00%——
80
DONNY NAVARRO IIIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
42
MICHAEL MARCHESETE SERET
UNR—00%——
11
CARLOS SANDYWR SERET
★3—00%——
9
DANIEL BARKERTE 5TRET
★3—00%——
1
ISAIAH WILLIAMSWR JURET
★4—00%——
15
DALEVON CAMPBELLWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
13
PAT BRYANTWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
BRANDEN HOHENSTEINTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
10
DREW DANWR SERET
UNR—00%——
49
MAX ROSENTHALTE JUPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
UNR—00%——
9
JAFAR ARMSTRONGWR SEPORTAL · NOTRE DAME
★3★300%—HELD
7
BRIAN HIGHTOWERWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
8
KHMARI THOMPSONWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
43
COOPER DAVISTE FRRET
★3—00%——
13
GRIFFIN MOORETE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
48
MIKE CERNIGLIA JR.TE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
BEN SCHULTZTE JURET
UNR—00%——
83
KEION BATTLEWR SONO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
15
TY LINDENMANWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
84
OWEN HICKEYWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
40
LUCAS ALTHAUSTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRODY WISECARVERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
SAMARI COLLIERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
DANIEL EDWARDS JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
PAT BRYANTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOSH KREUTZHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
SEDARIUS MCCONNELLHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JORIELL WASHINGTONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
PRINCE GREENHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
DD SNYDERHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JOSH MCCRAYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAFAR ARMSTRONGNOTRE DAMEWR★3★3
EDDIE SMITHALABAMAS★3★3
CJ HARTNC STATEOLBUNR★3
CHASE HAYDENEAST CAROLINARB★4★3
ALEC BRYANTVIRGINIA TECHEDGE★4★4
ARTUR SITKOWSKIRUTGERSQB★3★3
JACK BADOVINACCOLGATEIOLUNRUNR
PRATHER HUDSONGEORGIASUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT8 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DELANO WAREWESTERN MICHIGANS★3★3
DANIEL IMATORBHEBHEKANSAS STATETEUNR★3
NATE HOBBSNFL DRAFT R5DB★3—
KYRON CUMBYELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
JOSH IMATORBHEBHEELIGIBILITY UPWR★4—
MILO EIFLERELIGIBILITY UPLB★4—
CONNER LILLIGNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
TRE'VON RIGGINSNOT LISTEDDL★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#73NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8449COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
917 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST92% BACK92th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG92% BACK92th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR95%95th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE