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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
BIG TEN|CURT CIGNETTI|—RECORD11-2|CONF—
INDIANA#10 AP 10 FPIB1G · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
59FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
38%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
34%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#651 BC / 17
BC RATIO
14%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
11-1ACTUALvs11.1-0.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+28.7
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 11.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE96
PERFORMANCE96
TALENT67
CONTINUITY38
DEFENSE87
PERFORMANCE87
TALENT68
CONTINUITY34
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 31-7201717+75BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HWESTERN ILLINOIS—W 77-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 14AUCLA—W 42-13804444+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HCHARLOTTE—W 52-14531212+80BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HMARYLAND—W 42-28643636+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5ANORTHWESTERN—W 41-24612424+68BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19HNEBRASKA—W 56-7846666+26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HWASHINGTON—W 31-17755757+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2AMICHIGAN STATE—W 47-10713333+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HMICHIGAN—W 20-15898181+11BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AOHIO STATE#1L 15-3899100100-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HPURDUE—W 66-0741010+82BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 20ANOTRE DAME#2L 17-27939595-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB49TAL89PERF49RET10ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
KURTIS ROURKEQB SEPORTAL · OHIO
★3★48490%+36ROSE
2
TAYVEN JACKSONQB SERET
★4★34510%+11FELL
15
ALBERTO MENDOZAQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★341%—HELD
12
ROMAN PURCELLQB JURET
★3—00%——
▾RB48TAL57PERF48RET1ROTATIONn=4 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JUSTICE ELLISONRB SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★39043%-14HELD
17
TY SON LAWTONRB SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
UNR★38635%-11EMERGED
8
KAELON BLACKRB SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
★3★36313%+23HELD
21
ELIJAH GREENRB SENO SNAPS
★3★3466%+25HELD
28
KHOBIE MARTINRB SONO SNAPS
★3—292%0—
25
DANIEL WEEMSRB SORET
UNR—121%——
18
SOLOMON VANHORSERB SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
★2★300%-10ROSE
30
KYLER KROPPRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE55TAL69PERF69RET24ONE OWNERn=6 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
44
ZACH HORTONTE SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
★3★39778%+53HELD
13
ELIJAH SARRATTWR SEPORTAL · JAMES MADISON
UNR★48926%+35EMERGED
3
OMAR COOPER JR.WR JURET
★4—7919%+32—
19
MILES CROSSWR SEPORTAL · OHIO
★3★37617%+7HELD
4
MYLES PRICEWR SEPORTAL · TEXAS TECH
★3★37416%+12HELD
5
KE'SHAWN WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★3★37315%+21HELD
ANDISON COBYWR SERET
★3—504%-45—
48
JAMES BOMBATE SERET
★3★34910%-33HELD
87
SAM WESTTE JURET
★3★3447%—HELD
45
TREY WALKERTE SERET
UNR—313%-18—
7
E.J. WILLIAMS JR.WR SERET
★4—291%-13—
1
DONAVEN MCCULLEYWR SERET
★4★3261%+2FELL
80
BRODY FOLEYTE SERET
★3★4222%—ROSE
2
BRADY SIMMONSWR SERET
UNR★2110%—EMERGED
80
CHARLIE BECKERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—70%——
83
ELI JOCHEMWR JURET
UNR—00%——
10
DERIN MCCULLEYWR SERET
★3—00%——
17
JACKSON WASSERSTROMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
CAMDEN JORDANWR SERET
UNR—00%——
88
BRODY KOSINTE FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL55TAL58PERF55RET57n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL82TAL65PERF82RET34n=8 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
▸LB62TAL71PERF62RET0n=4 · 10 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DB69TAL70PERF69RET51n=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS8 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER CHERRYHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JOSH PHILOSTINHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ADEDAMOLA AJANIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CHARLIE BECKERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
QUENTIN CLARKHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
BRODY KOSINHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
AUSTIN LEIBFRIEDHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
WILLIAM DEPAEPEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN17 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KURTIS ROURKEOHIOQB★3★4
ELIJAH SARRATTJAMES MADISONWRUNR★4
CJ WESTKENT STATEDL★3★3
ANDREW DEPAEPEMICHIGAN STATEEDGE★4★3
JAMES CARPENTERJAMES MADISONDLUNR★3
ELIJAH GREENNORTH CAROLINARBUNR★3
SHAWN ASBURY IIOLD DOMINIONS★3★3
KAELON BLACKJAMES MADISONRB★3★3
MILES CROSSOHIOWR★3★3
JAILIN WALKERJAMES MADISONLBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT40 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZACH CARPENTERMIAMIC★3★3
KAHLIL BENSONCOLORADOOL★3★3
LOUIS MOOREOLE MISSDBUNR★3
KOBEE MINORMEMPHISDB★3★3
PHILLIP DUNNAMFLORIDA ATLANTICDB★3★3
PHILIP BLIDIAUBURNDL★3★3
MYLES JACKSONTULSALB★3★3
ANTHONY JONES JR.MICHIGAN STATEEDGE★3★3
BRENDAN SORSBYCINCINNATIQB★3★5
JORDAN GRIERMEMPHISDB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES93%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#65NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8588COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3042 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST28% BACK28th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG28% BACK28th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR57%57th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR10%10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST51%51th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE