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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
BIG TEN|KIRK FERENTZ|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
IOWA34 FPIB1G · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
74FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
12%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#302 BC / 21
BC RATIO
21%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.0
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE9
PERFORMANCE9
TALENT67
CONTINUITY12
DEFENSE100
PERFORMANCE100
TALENT56
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HSOUTH DAKOTA STATE—W 7-3————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HIOWA STATE—L 7-10546060+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HNEVADA—W 27-02444+76BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24ARUTGERS—W 27-10612727+53BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HMICHIGAN#3L 14-27919999-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AILLINOIS—L 6-9608888-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AOHIO STATE#4L 10-54999898-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HNORTHWESTERN—W 33-13671616+64BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5APURDUE—W 24-3646565+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HWISCONSIN—W 24-10826868+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AMINNESOTA—W 13-10648888-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNEBRASKA—L 17-24834646+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 31AKENTUCKY—W 21-0818282-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB20TAL33PERF20RET94ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
SPENCER PETRASQB SERET
★3★37982%-25HELD
16
ALEX PADILLAQB SERET
★3★34512%-51HELD
2
JOE LABASQB SERET
★3★4336%—ROSE
▾RB39TAL56PERF39RET64ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
LESHON WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3★38433%-36HELD
2
KALEB JOHNSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—8333%-4—
21
GAVIN WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3★37524%-36HELD
38
MONTE POTTEBAUMFB SERET
UNR—477%——
4
JAZIUN PATTERSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★3363%-51HELD
31
ELI MILLERFB JURET
UNR—00%——
40
TURNER PALLISSARDFB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
NOLAN DONALDRB JURET
UNR—00%——
32
JOHNNY PLEWAFB JURET
UNR—00%——
24
MAX WHITERB SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
34
ZACH BRANDRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE49TAL64PERF38RET80ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
SAM LAPORTATE SERET
★3—9749%+39—
85
LUKE LACHEYTE SERET
★4—9646%+26—
89
NICO RAGAINIWR SERET
★3—8531%-15—
1
ARLAND BRUCE IVWR JURET
★4★48027%-49HELD
14
BRODY BRECHTWR FRRET
★3—6918%-56—
0
DIANTE VINESWR SERET
★3★36313%-45HELD
18
ALEC WICKWR JURET
UNR—537%-55—
87
ADDISON OSTRENGATE SENO SNAPS
★3—424%——
15
JACK JOHNSONWR JURET
UNR—312%——
6
KEAGAN JOHNSONWR SERET
★4★3312%+18FELL
86
STEVEN STILIANOSTE SENO SNAPS
★3—231%——
29
JACKSON RITTERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
JACKSON FRERICKSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
86
JACOB BOSTICKWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
44
DENIN LIMOURISTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
49
ANDREW LENTSCHTE JURET
UNR—00%——
82
JOHNNY PASCUZZITE SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
16
CAEL VANDERBUSHTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
80
CARSON MAYTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
14
REESE OSGOODWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
JORDAN KUMMWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
GRAHAM FRIEDRICHSENWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
21
KADEN WETJENWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
17
ALEX EICHMANNWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL22TAL75PERF22RET0n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL63TAL76PERF63RET91n=10 · 8 METRICS · 58 OBS
▸LB45TAL45PERF45RET96n=4 · 10 METRICS · 26 OBS
▸DB69TAL45PERF70RET95n=7 · 6 METRICS · 36 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
XAVIER NWANKPAHS RECRUITS★4UNR
AARON GRAVESHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
KALEB JOHNSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
CADEN CRAWFORDHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
CARSON MAYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TJ HALLHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BRIAN ALLEN JR.HS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KOEN ENTRINGERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
OLANDO TRADERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACOB BOSTICKHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEUCE HOGANKENTUCKYQB★3★3
JOSIAH MIAMENFLORIDA INTERNATIONALTE★3UNR
TYRONE TRACY JR.PURDUERB★3UNR
CHARLIE JONESPURDUEWR★2UNR
CALEB SHUDAKELIGIBILITY UPPKUNR—
MATT HANKINSELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
MAX COOPERELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
IVORY KELLY-MARTINELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
ZACH VANVALKENBURGELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
HENRY MARCHESEELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#30NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
2OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8723COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST65% BACK65th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG65% BACK65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR94%94th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST95%95th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE