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HOME›TEAMS›JACKSONVILLE STATE›2025TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|CHARLES KELLY|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
JACKSONVILLE STATE100 FPICUSA · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
20FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
37%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
34%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1100 BC / 23
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
8-5ACTUALvs7.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.8
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE24
PERFORMANCE24
TALENT40
CONTINUITY37
DEFENSE21
PERFORMANCE21
TALENT44
CONTINUITY34
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
26MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 28AUCF—L 10-17694444-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HLIBERTY—W 34-24392525+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AGEORGIA SOUTHERN—L 34-41332424+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HMURRAY STATE—W 45-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5SEP 27ASOUTHERN MISS—L 25-42403131+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9ASAM HOUSTON—W 29-271111+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 15HDELAWARE—W 38-2542020+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—W 24-212077+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8AUTEP—W 30-272755+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HKENNESAW STATE—W 35-2643535-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—L 21-27292121+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HWESTERN KENTUCKY—W 37-34285050-17BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 5HKENNESAW STATE—L 15-1943535-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 16HTROY—W 17-13283636-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB65TAL27PERF65RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
CADEN CREELQB JURET
UNR—7969%0—
2
GAVIN WIMSATTQB SEPORTAL · KENTUCKY
★4★36930%-44FELL
8
CADE CUNNINGHAMQB SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
UNR★2141%—EMERGED
19
JACK MORANQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
15
GREG JONESQB JURET
UNR—00%——
20
KADYN PALMERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB53TAL77PERF53RET8ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 17 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
CAM COOKRB SEPORTAL · TCU
★4★310075%+3FELL
7
KHRISTIAN LANDORB SORET
UNR—6613%-36—
0
ANDREW PAULRB SERET
★3★3505%+6HELD
49
NATE THOMASRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—43100%——
6
JALEN LIKELYRB SORET
UNR—342%——
21
JUSTUS SAVAGERB SORET
★3—292%-14—
22
LUCAS FARRINGTONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—272%——
▾WR/TE44TAL11PERF47RET53ONE OWNERn=5 · 8 METRICS · 32 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
PEARSON BALDWINTE SERET
UNR—9979%-4—
11
DEONDRE JOHNSONWR JUPORTAL · RUTGERS
★4★39030%+31FELL
3
BROCK RECHSTEINERWR SERET
UNR—8726%-7—
16
CALEB COOMBSWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
★3★38122%-15HELD
7
HARRISON HAMSLEYTE SEPORTAL · VALDOSTA STATE
★3★36316%—HELD
1
MICHAEL PETTWAYWR SERET
UNR—618%+8—
81
GABE GLOVERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—525%——
88
KAM BELLTE JUPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
UNR★3466%—EMERGED
84
FRANKLIN BARET JR.WR SOPORTAL · APP STATE
UNR★2453%—EMERGED
5
DYLAN GENTRYWR SOPORTAL · AUBURN
★3★3433%—HELD
9
WYATT SONDERMANWR FRRET
★2—352%——
82
COLTON PITCHFORDWR JURET
UNR—60%——
86
NABI HOYTWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
39
BRYSON ROUILLIERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
14
BLAKE WALLACEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—60%——
18
SANTONIO JONESWR SORET
UNR—60%——
80
CIANAN WILLIAMSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
30
LUKE GILBERTTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
87
AGHOGHO EYAFEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
4
SHANE PAYTON HODGESTE JURET
UNR—00%——
29
CARTER LAMBERTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
17
NATE ZILLSTE FRRET
UNR—00%——
27
JEREMIAH COLBERTWR SORET
★3—00%——
10
AJ WATKINSWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
85
JAXON SHUTTLESWORTHTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
DJ VINSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
48
WES RYANWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
JAMESON SCISSUMTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL38TAL41PERF38RET36n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL48TAL58PERF48RET75n=8 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB40TAL47PERF40RET47n=6 · 10 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB55TAL35PERF55RET13n=11 · 8 METRICS · 57 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JACK MORANHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
LANCE JOHNSONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JQ BROOKSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
CHRISTOPHER JOHNSONHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
LUCAS FARRINGTONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JAMESON SCISSUMHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LUKE REYNOLDSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
GABE GLOVERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DJ VINSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
MAC SANDERSHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TREVOR WOODSCOLORADOS★3★3
KHURTISS PERRYVIRGINIA TECHDL★4★3
CAM COOKTCURB★4★3
TRE'QUON FEGANSUCFCB★4★3
JEREMIAH ORRHAMPTONOTUNR★3
GAVIN WIMSATTKENTUCKYQB★4★3
CALEB COOMBSFLORIDA ATLANTICWR★3★3
JACARVIS ALEXANDREFERRIS STATECBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT46 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
WILL O'STEENNORTH CAROLINAOL★2★3
ZECHARIAH POYSERMIAMIDBUNR★4
FRED PERRYWEST VIRGINIAS★3★3
REGINALD HUGHESCOLORADOLBUNR★3
GEIMERE LATIMER IIWISCONSINDBUNR★3
KY'WON MCCRAYNEW MEXICODTUNR★3
JABARI MACKLOUISVILLEDBUNR★3
FRED DAVIS IINORTHWESTERNDB★4UNR
JACOB BARRICKWEST VIRGINIATEUNR★3
DEREK CARTER JR.WEST VIRGINIASUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES93%12 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS76%12 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#110NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8423COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2227 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR36%36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST13%13th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE