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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
SEC|MARK STOOPS|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
KENTUCKY50 FPISEC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
83FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#248 BC / 25
BC RATIO
40%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.5
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE49
PERFORMANCE49
TALENT77
CONTINUITY54
DEFENSE86
PERFORMANCE86
TALENT75
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
76MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HSOUTHERN MISS—W 31-03511+65BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HSOUTH CAROLINA#19L 6-31859090-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HGEORGIA#6L 12-13999696-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HOHIO—W 41-6115353+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AOLE MISS#11W 20-17869999-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HVANDERBILT—L 13-20646262+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19AFLORIDA—L 20-48928686-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HAUBURN—L 10-24887676-10BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2ATENNESSEE#9L 18-28889494-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16HMURRAY STATE—W 48-6————NON-FBS OPPONENT
13NOV 23ATEXAS#4L 14-31989595-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HLOUISVILLE—L 14-41748585-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB61TAL88PERF61RET0ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
BROCK VANDAGRIFFQB JUPORTAL · GEORGIA
★5★47571%-14FELL
8
CUTTER BOLEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★4★35417%-37FELL
2
GAVIN WIMSATTQB SEPORTAL · RUTGERS
★4★34812%-49FELL
11
BEAU ALLENQB SEPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB75TAL75PERF75RET60ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
DEMIE SUMO-KARNGBAYERB SERET
★3★49260%-7ROSE
10
JAMARION WILCOXRB SORET
★3★37225%+30HELD
1
CHIP TRAYANUMRB SEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
★4★3497%-2FELL
26
JASON PATTERSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—477%+13—
21
TOVANI MIZELLRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—121%——
38
HENRY BENNETTRB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL75PERF53RET69ROTATIONn=10 · 7 METRICS · 48 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
DANE KEYWR SERET
★4★48629%+28HELD
5
JORDAN DINGLETE SERET
★3★38235%+3HELD
9
JA'MORI MACLINWR SEPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
★3★38023%+33HELD
84
JOSH KATTUSTE SERET
★3—7933%+31—
6
BARION BROWNWR SERET
★4★47520%+16HELD
13
FRED FARRIER IIWR SEPORTAL · UAB
★3★36915%-21HELD
15
KHAMARI ANDERSONTE SERET
★4★36518%-56FELL
81
WILLIE RODRIGUEZTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—6014%+21—
17
HARDLEY GILMORE IVWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3577%+26FELL
5
ANTHONY BROWN-STEPHENSWR SERET
★3—535%-49—
82
DAVID WASHINGTON JR.WR SONO SNAPS
★3★3241%—HELD
83
JACK MONDAYTE SERET
UNR—90%——
8
BRANDON WHITEWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
44
JUSTIN KATTUSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
TANNER LEMASTERTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
34
TREY DENNISWR SERET
UNR—00%——
39
JOSH TERRELLWR JURET
UNR—00%——
29
SANTOS ALVAREZWR JURET
UNR—00%——
27
MAX DEGRAFFWR SORET
UNR—00%——
36
CHY RIVERSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
37
SPENCER LEADBETTERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
3
DARIUS CANNONWR FRRET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
33
RICO CROWDERWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL43TAL73PERF43RET58n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL62TAL76PERF62RET94n=9 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB71TAL84PERF71RET70n=7 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB50TAL70PERF50RET76n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRIAN ROBINSONHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
TERHYON NICHOLSHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JEROD SMITH IIHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JACOB SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
JADEN SMITHHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
HARDLEY GILMORE IVHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
CAM DOOLEYHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
CUTTER BOLEYHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
JASON PATTERSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ABA SELMHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN8 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BROCK VANDAGRIFFGEORGIAQB★5★4
JAMON DUMAS-JOHNSONGEORGIALB★4★4
CHIP TRAYANUMOHIO STATERB★4★4
KRISTIAN STORYALABAMAS★4★3
DJ WALLER JR.MICHIGANS★3★3
JA'MORI MACLINNORTH TEXASWR★3★3
JALEN FARMERFLORIDAIOL★3★3
GERALD MINCEYTENNESSEEOT★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEATEN WADECOLORADODE★4★3
JALEN GEIGERTULANES★3★3
JORDAN ROBINSONCINCINNATIDB★2★3
JAMARIUS DINKINSPURDUEDL★3★3
IZAYAH CUMMINGSLOUISVILLETE★3★3
ELIJAH REEDAKRONCB★3★3
KAIYA SHERONUT MARTINQB★3★3
SHAMAR PORTERUCONNWR★4★4
ANDRU PHILLIPSNFL DRAFT R3DB★3—
TREVIN WALLACENFL DRAFT R3LB★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES90%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS43%7 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#24NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
8OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8843COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1223 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST19% BACK19th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG19% BACK19th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR58%58th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST76%76th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE