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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|MARK STOOPS|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
KENTUCKY47 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
81FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
47%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#297 BC / 24
BC RATIO
33%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
5-7ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.4
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE50
PERFORMANCE50
TALENT82
CONTINUITY47
DEFENSE73
PERFORMANCE73
TALENT75
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
74MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HTOLEDO—W 24-16466565-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HOLE MISS#3L 23-30859696-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HEASTERN MICHIGAN—W 48-23321313+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ASOUTH CAROLINA—L 13-35886464-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4AGEORGIA#6L 14-351009696-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HTEXAS#12L 13-16988888-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HTENNESSEE—L 34-56898787-36BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AAUBURN—W 10-3917979-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HFLORIDA—W 38-7925454-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HTENNESSEE TECH—W 42-10————NON-FBS OPPONENT
13NOV 22AVANDERBILT#15L 17-45619393-42BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ALOUISVILLE—L 0-41648282-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB44TAL88PERF44RET84ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
CUTTER BOLEYQB JURET
★4★38484%+10FELL
5
ZACH CALZADAQB SEPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD
★3★35915%-36HELD
14
BRENNEN WARDQB SONO SNAPS
★3—181%——
11
BEAU ALLENQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
12
STONE SAUNDERSQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB50TAL83PERF50RET22ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 19 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
SETH MCGOWANRB SEPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE
★4★39550%0FELL
22
DANTE DOWDELLRB SEPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★4★48129%+1HELD
26
JASON PATTERSONRB JURET
★3—7421%-28—
21
TOVANI MIZELLRB JURET
★3—161%——
10
JAMARION WILCOXRB SORET
★3★300%+30HELD
36
CHY RIVERSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
35
JAMES DALRYMPLERB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE68TAL71PERF64RET59ROTATIONn=10 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
81
WILLIE RODRIGUEZTE JURET
★3—8939%+39—
1
KENDRICK LAWWR SEPORTAL · ALABAMA
★4★48725%-5HELD
84
JOSH KATTUSTE SERET
★3—8637%+31—
17
HARDLEY GILMORE IVWR JUPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★4★37920%+9FELL
87
HENRY BOYERTE SEPORTAL · ILLINOIS
★3★37422%-19HELD
9
JA'MORI MACLINWR SERET
★3★36913%+34HELD
13
FRED FARRIER IIWR SERET
★3★36912%-8HELD
4
J.J. HESTERWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★36610%+29FELL
7
DJ MILLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—6510%+7—
22
CAMERON MILLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3617%+6HELD
10
TROY STELLATOWR SEPORTAL · CLEMSON
★4★3402%-27FELL
88
MONTAVIN QUISENBERRYWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3181%—HELD
8
MIKKEL SKINNERTE SONO SNAPS
★4—171%——
83
JACK MONDAYTE SERET
UNR—121%——
85
ELIJAH BROWNTE SEPORTAL · UCF
★4★340%—FELL
82
DAVID WASHINGTON JR.WR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
86
COLE LANTERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
QUINTIN SIMMONSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
80
ASHTON COZARTWR SEPORTAL · SMU
★4★300%—FELL
37
SPENCER LEADBETTERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
PRESTON BOWMANWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
33
RICO CROWDERWR JURET
UNR—00%——
44
JUSTIN KATTUSTE JURET
UNR—00%——
40
AUMAD EDWARDSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR★300%—EMERGED
39
SAXTON HOWARDWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL57TAL86PERF57RET40n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL73TAL80PERF73RET58n=9 · 8 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸LB68TAL75PERF68RET54n=9 · 11 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸DB61TAL73PERF61RET87n=9 · 8 METRICS · 48 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MIKKEL SKINNERHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
MARTELS CARTER JR.HS RECRUITS★4UNR
JAVEON CAMPBELLHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
ANDREW PURCELLHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
CEDRIC WORKSHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
KALEN EDWARDSHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
DARRIN STREYHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
DJ MILLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
CAMERON MILLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
QUINTIN SIMMONS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAVID GUSTAWASHINGTON STATEDL★3★4
MI'QUISE HUMPHREY-GRACESOUTH DAKOTAEDGEUNR★4
ALEX WOLLSCHLAEGERBOWLING GREENOT★2★4
SHIYAZH PETENEW MEXICO STATEOTUNR★4
TRU EDWARDSLOUISIANA TECHWRUNR★4
KENDRICK LAWALABAMAWR★4★4
KAMERON OLDSKENT STATEEDGEUNR★4
DANTE DOWDELLNEBRASKARB★4★3
ZACH CALZADAINCARNATE WORDQB★3★3
HARDLEY GILMORE IVNEBRASKAWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT38 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DYLAN RAYMINNESOTAOLUNR★3
KEESHAWN SILVERUSCDT★5★4
JORDAN DINGLESOUTH CAROLINATE★3★3
DANE KEYNEBRASKAWR★4★4
BARION BROWNLSUWR★4★4
TYREESE FEARBRYWISCONSINLB★4★4
NOAH MATTHEWSDELAWAREDE★3★3
KHAMARI ANDERSONARIZONA STATETE★4★3
ANTHONY BROWN-STEPHENSTULANEWR★3UNR
GAVIN WIMSATTJACKSONVILLE STATEQB★4★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES70%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS69%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#29NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
7OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8812COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2530 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST25% BACK25th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG25% BACK25th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR40%40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR84%84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST87%87th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE