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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2020 FINAL
SUN BELT|SKIP HOLTZ|—RECORD5-4|CONF—
LOUISIANA TECH108 FPISBC · 2020 SEASON
TALENT
42FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#750 BC / 18
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2020 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-4ACTUALvs3.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-5.0
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE9 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
46MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
3SEP 19ASOUTHERN MISS—W 31-30342222+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 26HHOUSTON CHRISTIAN—W 66-38————NON-FBS OPPONENT
5OCT 2ABYU#11L 14-45469595-70BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 10HUTEP—W 21-171855+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 17HMARSHALL—L 17-35357878-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 24AUTSA—L 26-27401919+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 31HUAB—W 37-34297070-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 3ANORTH TEXAS—W 42-31362222+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
15DEC 12ATCU—L 10-52805555-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET20NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
13
LUKE ANTHONYQB SENO SNAPS
★2—00%——
10
WESTIN ELLIOTTQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
AARON ALLENQB JURET
★3—00%——
15
TRENT WESSELQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
JD HEADQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
18
JAKSON THOMSONQB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
5
LOGAN MCFADDENQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET76NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
ISRAEL TUCKERRB SERET
★2—00%——
22
CHARVIS THORNTONRB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
25
GREG GARNERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
JUSTIN HENDERSONRB SERET
★3—00%——
37
CAM WRIGHTRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
36
JORDAN MYLESRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
45
JACOB ADAMSFB JURET
UNR—00%——
23
HARLAN DIXONRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
87
CARSON RIEDERFB FRRET
UNR—00%——
32
ISHMAEL LANDERSRB FRRET
UNR—00%——
39
THOMAS WILLIAMSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
49
MASON DAILEYFB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
TRE HARRISWR SENO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
6
ADRIAN HARDYWR SERET
★3—00%——
CEE JAY POWELLWR SERET
★2★200%—HELD
11
GEORGE SCOTTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
5
GRIFFIN HEBERTTE SERET
★2—00%——
TAHJ MAGEEWR JURET
★3—00%——
13
ISAIAH GRAHAMWR SERET
★4—00%——
6
SMOKE HARRISWR SERET
★3—00%——
86
WAYNE TOUSSANTWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
84
JOSEPH WALKERWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
82
DOYLE ADAMS JR.WR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
ZACH PARKERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
8
JAWAUN JOHNSONWR JURET
UNR—00%——
9
KYLE MAXWELLWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
14
PRAISE OKORIEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
BUB MEANSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
CJ MCWILLIAMSWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS18 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CEDRIC WOODSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAMISON KELLYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
KERSHAWN FISHERHS RECRUITWDE★3UNR
CALEB HOLSTEINHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
HARLAN DIXONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DONTRELL COBBSHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
JD HEADHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
CJ MCWILLIAMSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KEVEION'TA SPEARSHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
DAKOTA WHITEHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
L'JARIUS SNEEDNFL DRAFT R4S★3—
AMIK ROBERTSONNFL DRAFT R4CB★3—
AARON ROBERSONELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
COLLIN SCOTTELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
J'MAR SMITHELIGIBILITY UPQBUNR—
TREY SPENCERELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
COURTNEY WALLACEELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
JAVONTE WOODARDELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
KEVIN MURPHYELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
DARRYL LEWISELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#75NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8358COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
56TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
5
15
14
11
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +6 W
IMPROVED25 OF 56
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST53% BACK53th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG53% BACK53th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR20%20th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE