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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
SUN BELT|SONNY CUMBIE|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
LOUISIANA TECH125 FPISBC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
24FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
45%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-4IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#770 BC / 21
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-7.5
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT47
CONTINUITY80
DEFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT37
CONTINUITY45
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 22-173444+12BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2ASMU#22L 14-38768383-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9HNORTHWESTERN STATE—W 51-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 16HNORTH TEXAS—L 37-40303636-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 23ANEBRASKA—L 14-28855151-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29AUTEP—W 24-101888+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 28-35364545-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10AMIDDLE TENNESSEE—L 23-31352424-8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 24HNEW MEXICO STATE—L 24-27174545-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ALIBERTY#25L 30-5697575-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HSAM HOUSTON—L 27-4271414+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 17-5664747-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB49TAL64PERF49RET33ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
HANK BACHMEIERQB SEPORTAL · BOISE STATE
★4★37865%+15FELL
10
JACK TURNERQB JURET
UNR—6833%-18—
7
EVAN BULLOCKQB SONO SNAPS
★3★3141%—HELD
13
BRENDON STRICKLANDQB JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
5
BLAKE BAKERQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
REED ODELLQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
11
JADEN OSBORNEQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB41TAL32PERF41RET45ROTATIONn=4 · 5 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
TYRE SHELTONRB JUPORTAL · MIAMI (OH)
★2★27938%-5HELD
22
CHARVIS THORNTONRB JURET
★3★37127%+13HELD
21
KEITH WILLIS JR.RB FRTRUE FR
★3—6217%+28—
23
KELDRIC MOODYRB JURET
UNR—6217%-2—
22
MARQUIS CROSBYRB SERET
★3★360%+2HELD
39
JACALL WYNDERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL47PERF55RET64ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
SMOKE HARRISWR SERET
★3—9627%+16—
4
CYRUS ALLENWR SERET
★3★39224%+29HELD
34
RYAN RIVERATE SEPORTAL · CAL POLY
UNR★27752%+17EMERGED
9
KYLE MAXWELLWR SERET
★3★37715%-9HELD
16
TRU EDWARDSWR SERET
UNR★46711%+13EMERGED
17
NATE JONESWR SERET
★2—6227%-24—
5
MARLION JACKSONWR SERET
★3★3617%+15HELD
88
KOBY DURUWR SENO SNAPS
★2—504%-4—
44
JOHN LOCKE JR.TE SERET
★3★34912%—HELD
11
DECOLDEST CRAWFORDWR SOPORTAL · NEBRASKA
★3★3493%—HELD
18
JULIEN LEWISWR SORET
UNR—473%-17—
84
ELI FINLEYTE SENO SNAPS
★3—449%——
3
DEDRICK LATULASWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—412%——
12
MATTHEW MCCALLISTERWR JURET
UNR—402%——
2
SOLO LEWISWR JURET
★3★3331%—HELD
14
DAKOTA WILLIAMSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★3271%—HELD
8
DEVONTA LEEWR SERET
★4—00%-53—
47
JAY WILKERSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
ZYION CLAVILLEWR JURET
★3★300%—HELD
83
KENDRICK RUCKERTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
28
BUD HOLLOWAYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
DAXTON CHAVEZWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
44
COLLIN FRANTATE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
85
ADEM MADISEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
33
TAVIS WILLIAMSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL47TAL45PERF47RET99n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL35TAL40PERF35RET57n=9 · 7 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸LB43TAL50PERF43RET8n=4 · 10 METRICS · 29 OBS
▸DB48TAL27PERF48RET52n=10 · 8 METRICS · 54 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS21 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DELVIN WHITAKERHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ELI FINLEYHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HAYDEN CHRISTMANHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACOB FIELDSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JA'MARION KENNEDYHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BLAKE BAKERHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
KEITH WILLISHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
DEDRICK LATULASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KEYSTONE ALLISONHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TRE WEBB IIIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN4 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CRAIG WILLIAMSBAYLORRB★4★3
HANK BACHMEIERBOISE STATEQB★4★3
DECOLDEST CRAWFORDNEBRASKAWR★3★3
ZACH ZIMOSARKANSASS★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT44 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KEIVIE ROSEARKANSASDL★3★3
KERSHAWN FISHERNICHOLLSDE★3★3
KHIRY MORRISONARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFLB★3★3
TRE HARRISOLE MISSWR★3★4
KEVEION'TA SPEARSMEMPHISDT★3★3
TYLER GRUBBSTULANELB★3★3
LANDRY LYDDYUABQB★3★3
BRODRICK CALHOUNNORTHERN IOWADB★3UNR
MATTHEW DOWNINGELONQBUNR★2
ALLEN WALKERJACKSON STATELB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES26%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS41%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#77NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 21 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8354COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1923 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST43% BACK43th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG43% BACK43th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR33%33th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST52%52th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE