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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SUN BELT|SONNY CUMBIE|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
LOUISIANA TECH92 FPISBC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
16FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
65%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-24IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1110 BC / 14
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+6.3
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT42
CONTINUITY65
DEFENSE53
PERFORMANCE53
TALENT39
CONTINUITY65
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
29MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HSE LOUISIANA—W 24-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6ALSU—L 7-23967777-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 49-1461010+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 20HSOUTHERN MISS—W 30-20403131+13BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27AUTEP—W 30-112755+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 9AKENNESAW STATE—L 7-3543535+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 21HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 27-28285050-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31HSAM HOUSTON—W 55-141111+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ADELAWARE—L 24-2542020+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AWASHINGTON STATE—L 3-28315656-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HLIBERTY—W 34-28392525+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29AMISSOURI STATE—W 42-3072121+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 30HCOASTAL CAROLINA—W 23-14421111+33BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB64TAL37PERF65RET65ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
BLAKE BAKERQB JURET
★3—7250%+30—
2
TREY KUKUKQB SENO SNAPS
★3—6935%+10—
7
EVAN BULLOCKQB SORET
★3★35615%+20HELD
19
MASON WELCHQB JURET
UNR—00%——
10
JACKSON BRADLEYQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
14
TEDDY BOORASQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB58TAL33PERF58RET33ONE OWNERn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
CLAY THEVENINRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★38846%+28EMERGED
22
OMIRI WIGGINSRB JURET
UNR★37728%-17EMERGED
0
ANDREW BURNETTERB SEPORTAL · KEISER (FL)
UNR★37021%0EMERGED
25
AMANI GIVENSRB SERET
UNR—353%-13—
24
FRED ROBERTSONRB SORET
★3★3242%-48HELD
36
RILEY SMALLRB SORET
UNR—00%——
26
DYLONE BROOKSRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL41PERF49RET48ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 37 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
84
ELI FINLEYTE SERET
★3—9978%+29—
1
DEVIN GANDYWR SEPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE
UNR★38426%-2EMERGED
5
MARLION JACKSONWR SERET
★3★37620%+21HELD
11
JALEN MICKENSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—7519%-37—
87
BRAYDEN BOCKLERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—6820%——
16
MARQUES SINGLETON JR.WR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—6813%-25—
6
TRE AVERHARTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—535%-63—
8
DAVID PIERROWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—515%——
3
DEDRICK LATULASWR JURET
★3—494%-49—
15
LUKE WATKINSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—474%——
17
DANE BENEDIXWR SENO SNAPS
★3—464%——
80
DEVEN MUNIZTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—191%——
82
LUKE SEIBTE JUPORTAL · UTEP
★3★3141%—HELD
8
JAY SIMONWR FRRET
★3★360%—HELD
47
JAY WILKERSONWR SERET
★3★300%+35HELD
85
ADEM MADISEWR SORET
UNR—00%——
88
JOHNNIE THIEL IVWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
31
BRAYDEN CURRYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
27
KOLBY THOMASWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
86
DAEJAWN SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
89
CHASE GROSFELDWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL44TAL49PERF44RET85n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL21TAL42PERF21RET32n=9 · 7 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸LB52TAL44PERF52RET88n=6 · 11 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸DB46TAL33PERF46RET72n=12 · 8 METRICS · 64 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DAEJAWN SMITHHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYLON PARNELLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
TOBIAS GARYHS RECRUITS★3UNR
TOBY MEALERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
SENTEL SIMPSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
JALEN MICKENSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JACKSON BRADLEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ZHERIC HILLHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
ERVIN SMITHHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
KOLBY THOMASHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CURLEY REEDWASHINGTONCBUNR★3
ANDREW BURNETTEKEISER (FL)RBUNR★3
JORDAN PIERROFRESNO STATECB★3★3
DEVIN GANDYSACRAMENTO STATEWRUNR★3
JONATHAN DENISCENTRAL MISSOURIIOL★4★3
KAM FRANKLINOKLAHOMA STATES★3★3
LUKE SEIBUTEPWR★3★3
NOAH BIGLOWPITTSBURGHCB★3★3
LEXINGTON MATTHEWSJAMES MADISONPUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT39 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BLAKE THOMPSONHOUSTONDBUNR★3
DAVID BLAY JR.MIAMIDLUNRUNR
ZARIAN MCGILLCOLORADOOLUNR★3
J'DAN BURNETTTULSADL★3★3
JA'MARION KENNEDYWAKE FORESTOL★3★3
JAYDEN GRAYWESTERN KENTUCKYDL★3★3
KELLS BUSHJAMES MADISONDLUNR★2
SOLO LEWISNICHOLLSWR★3★3
MARQUIS CROSBYOREGON STATERB★3★3
HUNTER TIPTONMIDDLE TENNESSEETEUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES34%11 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS67%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#111NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8448COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
933 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKRETURNS
27TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
6
10
5
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +8 W
IMPROVED9 OF 27
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST84% BACK84th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG84% BACK84th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR85%85th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR65%65th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST72%72th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE