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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|WALT BELL|—RECORD1-11|CONF—
MASSACHUSETTS130 FPIMAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
9FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1170 BC / 15
BC RATIO
2%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
1-11ACTUALvs1.1-10.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN-26.8
1 wins against a scoring profile describing 1.1. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
48MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4APITTSBURGH#13L 7-51749494-94BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HBOSTON COLLEGE—L 28-45644343-43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HEASTERN MICHIGAN—L 28-42172323-23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25ACOASTAL CAROLINA—L 3-53288181-81BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HTOLEDO—L 7-45385757-57BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9HUCONN—W 27-131511-1BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23AFLORIDA STATE—L 3-59866060-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30ALIBERTY—L 17-6276363-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HRHODE ISLAND—L 22-35————NON-FBS OPPONENT
11NOV 13HMAINE—L 10-35————NON-FBS OPPONENT
12NOV 20AARMY—L 17-3355252-52BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27ANEW MEXICO STATE—L 27-44622-2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET40NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
GARRETT DZUROQB SORET
★2—00%——
12
BRADY OLSONQB SENO SNAPS
★3★200%—FELL
5
TYLER LYTLEQB SEPORTAL · COLORADO
★3★300%—HELD
18
LUKE MCMENAMINQB FRRET
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET78NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
KAY'RON LYNCH-ADAMSRB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
28
CYRUS BONSURB SORET
UNR—00%——
7
ELLIS MERRIWEATHERRB SERET
★2—00%——
29
JARED CHISARIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
23
JONATHAN WHITERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
82
MELVIN HILLWR SERET
★2—00%——
12
RICO ARNOLDWR SEPORTAL · CHARLOTTE
★2★200%—HELD
14
JARET PALLOTTATE SERET
★3—00%——
16
JOSIAH JOHNSONTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
18
TAYLOR EDWARDSTE SERET
★2—00%——
1
JERMAINE JOHNSONWR SERET
UNR★300%—EMERGED
1
ISAAC ROSSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JAKE ORLANDOTE SERET
★3—00%——
11
ONUMA DIEKEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
8
JAMIR ROBERTSWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
6
ZAMAR WISEWR SORET
★3—00%——
18
ROLINSKY SAINT-CYRWR SORET
UNR—00%——
11
MICHAEL FITZGERALDWR SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
80
TRAY PETTWAYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
CARTER SCUDOWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
ERIC COLLINSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
VICTOR SANTIAGOWR JURET
UNR—00%——
13
DELVIN ATTAFAHWR SORET
UNR—00%——
25
JACKSON MANNINGTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
84
MIKE MIKULAWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS15 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAVON BATTENHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DOMINIC SCHOFIELDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
MICHAEL FITZGERALD IIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
RYAN MOSESSOHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
PHIL JEFFSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
LOUCE JULIENHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BRADY OLSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JAMIR ROBERTSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JONATHAN MARTINHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ENI FALAYIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN10 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYLER LYTLECOLORADOPRO★3★3
BRYSON RICHARDSONNORTH CAROLINASUNR★3
BRYCE WATTSNORTH CAROLINACBUNR★3
KAY'RON ADAMSRUTGERSRBUNR★3
DEVIN BALDWINRUTGERSSDE★3★3
BRIAN PARISHNORTH TEXASOT★2★2
RICO ARNOLDCHARLOTTEWR★2★2
HUNTER SALMONMERRIMACKOGUNRUNR
QUALEEM CHARLESAMERICAN INTERNATIONALOTUNRUNR
JAY LAROSAOLE MISSKUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT12 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAKE BYCZKOBOSTON COLLEGEDL★2★3
ANDREW BRITOUCFQBUNR★3
SAMUEL EMILUSLOUISIANA TECHWR★3★3
LARNEL COLEMANNFL DRAFT R7OL★2—
MIKE FALLONELIGIBILITY UPQBUNR—
MIKE RUANEELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
COLE MCCUBREYELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
CAM ROBERSONELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
JAVON TURNERELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
WILSON FREDERICNOT LISTEDDL★2—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#117NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 15 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8079COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1121 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST55% BACK55th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG55% BACK55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR40%40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE