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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
MID-AMERICAN|CHUCK MARTIN|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
MIAMI (OH)82 FPIMAC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
35FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1300 BC / 13
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs6.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+2.6
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
32MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1HMARSHALL—L 28-35414444-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HCINCINNATI#24L 0-21546262-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 15AMINNESOTA—L 3-26666666-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22ABOWLING GREEN—W 38-232533+36BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29HWESTERN MICHIGAN—L 39-40392020+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6AAKRON—W 41-172088+31BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 13HKENT STATE—W 31-61844+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20AARMY#19L 30-3173636+3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 30ABUFFALO—L 42-51233737+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 7HOHIO—W 30-28155959-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 14ANORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 13-7373232+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 20HBALL STATE—W 42-212199+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET70NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
GUS RAGLANDQB SERET
UNR—00%——
9
ALEX MALZONEQB JURET
UNR—00%——
2
JACKSON WILLIAMSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
12
PETE LAMPERTQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET94NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
23
DAVION JOHNSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
3
KENNY YOUNGRB SERET
UNR—00%——
26
ALONZO SMITHRB SERET
UNR—00%——
31
MAURICE THOMASRB SERET
UNR—00%——
29
ZACH KAHNRB SERET
UNR—00%——
1
JAYLON BESTERRB SERET
★2—00%——
33
LEONARD ROSSRB JURET
UNR—00%——
26
MITCHELL BURTONRB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
35
HAYDEN NEASERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
86
LUKE MAYOCKWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
QUENTIN HARDYTE SERET
UNR—00%——
44
NATE BECKERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
81
JAMES GARDNERWR SERET
UNR—00%——
19
NICK MAROSIWR JURET
UNR—00%——
85
TYLER FLEETWOODWR SORET
★2—00%——
13
JACK SORENSONWR SERET
★2—00%——
46
ANDREW HOMERTE SERET
★2—00%——
14
JALEN WALKERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
34
CHRIS CAVALARISWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
37
PAYTON O'REILLYTE JURET
UNR—00%——
16
ZACK HAZLETTWR JURET
UNR—00%——
43
KYLE SPEASTE JURET
★3—00%——
87
ADAM MEHELICTE JUNO SNAPS
★2—00%——
32
BRANDON LABRIEWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
ALEC VIANELLOWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
JARED SHARPWR —RET
UNR—00%——
88
MITCHELL LEWISTE —RET
★3—00%——
1
ISAIAH GENTRY-MADARISWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
35
MICHAEL DAVENPORTTE —RET
UNR—00%——
84
WILL CARLTONWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
MALEAK BRYANTTE —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MALEAK BRYANTHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
KAM BUTLERHS RECRUITWDE★3UNR
AJ MAYERHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
ANDREW TODDHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
BENNETT CLARKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CECIL SINGLETONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
BLAKE UNDERWOODHS RECRUITS★2UNR
WILL KELLISONHS RECRUITTE★2UNR
CAM BLAKELYHS RECRUITWR★2UNR
JADON RUCKER-FURLOWHS RECRUITCB★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRAD EARNESTMERCERDLUNRUNR
LIAM SALLQUISTNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
HEATH HARDINGNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
GRANT NIEMIECNOT LISTEDTEUNR—
AJ BURDINENOT LISTEDDLUNR—
JARED MURPHYNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
TONY REIDNOT LISTEDDBUNR—
MATT MERIMEENOT LISTEDDBUNR—
SAM CONNOLLYNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
IKEEM ALLENNOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#130NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.7918COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST76% BACK76th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG76% BACK76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR70%70th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE