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HOME›TEAMS›MICHIGAN STATE›2019TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2019 FINAL
BIG TEN|MARK DANTONIO|—RECORD6-6|CONF—
MICHIGAN STATE35 FPIB1G · 2019 SEASON
TALENT
78FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#324 BC / 22
BC RATIO
18%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2019 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-0.7
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HTULSA—W 28-7314444+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7HWESTERN MICHIGAN—W 51-17353131+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HARIZONA STATE—L 7-10776767+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ANORTHWESTERN—W 31-10653030+39BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HINDIANA—W 40-31628383-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AOHIO STATE#3L 10-3499100100-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AWISCONSIN#11L 0-38779292-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HPENN STATE#9L 7-28939696-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HILLINOIS—L 34-37745454+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AMICHIGAN#18L 10-44939393-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23ARUTGERS—W 27-0581010+59BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HMARYLAND—W 19-16812727+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET100NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
BRIAN LEWERKEQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
THEO DAYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
12
ROCKY LOMBARDIQB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
16
ELI MCLEANQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
PAYTON THORNEQB SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET67NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
39
ALANTE THOMASRB SERET
UNR—00%——
2
ANTHONY WILLIAMS JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%——
11
CONNOR HEYWARDRB JURET
★3—00%——
3
LA'DARIUS JEFFERSONRB SERET
★3—00%——
24
ELIJAH COLLINSRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
36
NOAH SARGENTRB JURET
UNR—00%——
23
ANDRE WELCHRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
49
MAX ROSENTHALTE JURET
UNR—00%——
16
BRANDON SOWARDSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
MATT SEYBERTTE SERET
UNR—00%——
7
CODY WHITEWR JURET
★3—00%——
25
DARRELL STEWART JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
9
TRENTON GILLISONTE JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
81
PARKS GISSINGERTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
17
TRE MOSLEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
89
MATT DOTSONTE SERET
★4—00%——
13
CJ HAYESWR SERET
UNR—00%——
13
LARESS NELSONWR SERET
★2—00%——
8
JALEN NAILORWR SORET
★3—00%——
20
DAVIS LEWANDOWSKIWR SERET
UNR—00%——
21
CAM CHAMBERSWR JURET
★4—00%——
41
REID BURTONTE SERET
★2—00%——
82
NOAH DAVISTE SERET
★3—00%——
87
JAHZ WATTSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
97
TYLER HUNTTE YRRET
UNR—00%——
82
JAVEZ ALEXANDERWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
1
JAYDEN REEDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
JALEN ALLENWR FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
TRE'VON MORGANWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
44
ADAM BERGHORSTTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
15
CADE MCDONALDWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
44
EVAN MORRISTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS22 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVONTAE DOBBSHS RECRUITOG★4UNR
JULIAN BARNETTHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
MICHAEL FLETCHERHS RECRUITSDE★4UNR
LUKE FULTONHS RECRUITILB★4UNR
TRE'VON MORGANHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SPENCER BROWNHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
TRE MOSLEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NICK SAMACHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
JASE BOWENHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ADAM BERGHORSTHS RECRUITSDE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT14 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KHARI WILLISNFL DRAFT R4SUNR—
JUSTIN LAYNENFL DRAFT R3CB★4—
MATT SOKOLELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
DILLON ALEXANDERELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
BYRON BULLOUGHELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
MATT MORRISSEYELIGIBILITY UPSUNR—
GERALD OWENSELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
FELTON DAVIS IIIELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
ANDREW DOWELLELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
GRAYSON MILLERELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#32NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8713COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
125TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
23
33
36
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +8 W
IMPROVED65 OF 125
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST86% BACK86th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG86% BACK86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE