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HOME›TEAMS›MIDDLE TENNESSEE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|RICK STOCKSTILL|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
MIDDLE TENNESSEE107 FPICUSA · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
35FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
80%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1200 BC / 14
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN-3.8
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE27
PERFORMANCE27
TALENT41
CONTINUITY72
DEFENSE48
PERFORMANCE48
TALENT52
CONTINUITY80
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
43MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 2AALABAMA#5L 7-561009595-71BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 9AMISSOURI#8L 19-23839393-69BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16HMURRAY STATE—W 35-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 23HCOLORADO STATE—L 23-31222727-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28AWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 10-31364545-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 30-4564747-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 10HLOUISIANA TECH—W 31-23241616+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 17ALIBERTY#25L 35-4297575-51BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4ANEW MEXICO STATE—L 7-13174545-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11HFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 40-63444+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18HUTEP—W 34-301888+16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25ASAM HOUSTON—L 20-2371414+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB40TAL43PERF40RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
NICHOLAS VATTIATOQB SERET
★3—97100%+32—
6
KYLE LOWEQB SORET
★3★300%—HELD
16
REN HEFLEYQB JUPORTAL · PRESBYTERIAN
UNR—00%——
18
STONE FROSTQB SERET
UNR—00%——
21
JAKSON JUDGEQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
SAM DRIGGERSQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB33TAL33PERF33RET54ONE OWNERn=2 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
FRANK PEASANTRB SERET
★3★38845%-7HELD
22
JAIDEN CREDLERB JUPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
★3★28338%-19FELL
4
TERRY WILKINSRB SERET
★2★2498%+36HELD
21
JEKAIL MIDDLEBROOKRB SENO SNAPS
UNR★3498%+6EMERGED
23
JALEN MONTGOMERYRB SORET
UNR—91%-58—
29
RAYMOND BANNERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—60%——
30
JORDAN BROWNRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
19
A'VARIUS SPARROWRB SORET
★3—00%-58—
34
ROMAL WEBB JR.RB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
JAYCE GARDNERRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE64TAL37PERF51RET55ONE OWNERn=8 · 7 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
9
ELIJAH METCALFWR SERET
★3★39728%+5HELD
83
HOLDEN WILLISTE SEPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA
★3★39188%+24HELD
3
DJ ENGLAND-CHISOLMWR SERET
★3—8720%-9—
4
JUSTIN OLSONWR SEPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA
★3★37815%+11HELD
13
JAVONTE SHERMANWR JURET
★3★37313%-54HELD
24
ZACK DOBSONWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3607%+35HELD
17
KALANI NORRISWR JUPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH
★3★3586%-8HELD
6
JEREMY TATE JR.WR SERET
UNR—524%+2—
88
JACOB COLEMANTE JURET
★3★3418%—HELD
KELLEN STEWARTWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—392%——
85
JAYLEN WARDWR FRRET
★3★3361%—HELD
3
BRYCE BAILEYWR SERET
★3★2341%-46FELL
81
TAHARIN SUDDERTHTE SERET
UNR★3314%—EMERGED
80
AJ TONEYWR SERET
★3★3291%-58HELD
10
DJ RILESWR SERET
★3★3251%—HELD
89
DANIEL GONZALEZTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
41
SLADE ALEXANDERTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
CADEN WILLIAMSWR SORET
★2—00%——
13
CAM'RON LACYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
47
JAMISON GREENWAYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
81
MITCHELL HOWELLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
ETHAN CRITEWR SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
84
TYSON RESPERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
ELIJAH EALEYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL52TAL43PERF52RET79n=8 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL38TAL57PERF38RET92n=10 · 7 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB47TAL60PERF47RET57n=7 · 10 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸DB44TAL46PERF44RET85n=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ETHAN CRITEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TRAE WALKERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CAM'RON LACYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
ANTHONY BYNUMHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
ISAAC RUEHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
AARON WOODHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JEKAIL MIDDLEBROOKHS RECRUITATHUNRUNR
CHAYCE SMITHHS RECRUITDLUNRUNR
JAMES JACKSON IIIHS RECRUITSUNRUNR
SHAKAI WOODSHS RECRUITLBUNRUNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEVIN HAYESJACKSON STATEOT★3★3
HOLDEN WILLISSOUTH FLORIDAWR★3★3
KALANI NORRISGEORGIA TECHWR★3★3
BRANDON BUCKNEROREGONLB★3★3
JUSTIN OLSONNORTH CAROLINAWR★3★3
JULIUS PIERCEFLORIDA INTERNATIONALOT★3★3
TYRELL RABYMEMPHISCB★3★3
JAIDEN CREDLENORTHERN ILLINOISRB★3★2
REN HEFLEYPRESBYTERIANQBUNRUNR
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT24 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DECORIAN PATTERSONUCFDBUNR★3
JAYLIN LANEVIRGINIA TECHWR★3★3
BUD TOLBERTUL MONROEWRUNRUNR
ANDREW LEAKNORTH ALABAMALB★2★2
JORDAN FERGUSONELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
JORDAN PALMERELIGIBILITY UPOL★2—
JA'KERRIUS WYATTELIGIBILITY UPDTUNR—
CHASE CUNNINGHAMELIGIBILITY UPQBUNR—
CHRISTIAN DIXONELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
YUSUF ALIELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES44%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS66%10 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#120NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8312COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
98 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST31% BACK31th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG31% BACK31th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR79%79th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST85%85th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE