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● LIVE|2016 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2016 FINAL
SEC|DAN MULLEN|—RECORD5-7|CONF—
MISSISSIPPI STATE51 FPISEC · 2016 SEASON
TALENT
80FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#283 BC / 17
BC RATIO
33%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2016 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.6
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
61MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HSOUTH ALABAMA—L 20-21252121+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HSOUTH CAROLINA—W 27-14843333+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17ALSU#13L 20-23999797-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24AMASSACHUSETTS—W 47-352088+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HAUBURN#24L 14-38968484-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ABYU—L 21-28556464-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22AKENTUCKY—L 38-40763939+17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HSAMFORD—W 56-41————NON-FBS OPPONENT
10NOV 5HTEXAS A&M—W 35-28917979-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AALABAMA#2L 3-51100100100-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HARKANSAS—L 42-58816363-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26AOLE MISS—W 55-20908181-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
12
DAMIAN WILLIAMSQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
NICK TIANOQB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
7
NICK FITZGERALDQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
BRANDON HOLLOWAYRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
ASHTON SHUMPERTRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
21
NICK GIBSONRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
ALEC MURPHYRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
AERIS WILLIAMSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
28
DONTAVIAN LEERB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
1
A.J. DAVISRB SENO SNAPS
★4—00%——
37
TREY BRASWELLRB —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
GABE MYLESWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
8
FRED ROSSWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
12
KEITH MIXON JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
DEDDRICK THOMASWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
MALIK DEARWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
FARROD GREENTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
DONALD GRAYWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
JORDAN THOMASTE —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
6
JAMAL COUCHWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
JESSE JACKSONWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
81
JUSTIN JOHNSONTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
REGGIE TODDWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
1
STEPHEN GUIDRYWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
JONNAS SPIVEYWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
AARON HAMAKERTE —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
80
CHRISTIAN ROBERSONTE —NO SNAPS
★3—00%——
13
TRAVIS O'CONNORWR —NO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS17 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JEFFERY SIMMONSHS RECRUITSDE★5UNR
MARQUISS SPENCERHS RECRUITWDE★4UNR
KOBE JONESHS RECRUITDT★4UNR
JAMAL COUCHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
STEWART REESEHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
ERROLL THOMPSONHS RECRUITILB★3UNR
C.J. MORGANHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
NERO NELSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
KOREY CHARLESHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DONTEA JONESHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT0 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#28NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
3OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8750COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODEST—2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODEST—2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHT—2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST40% BACK40th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG40% BACK40th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE