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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SEC|JEFF LEBBY|—RECORD5-8|CONF—
MISSISSIPPI STATE58 FPISEC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
83FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
55%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
59%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-3IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#284 BC / 18
BC RATIO
37%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+1.3
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE66
PERFORMANCE66
TALENT73
CONTINUITY55
DEFENSE59
PERFORMANCE59
TALENT73
CONTINUITY59
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
68MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30ASOUTHERN MISS—W 34-17403131+26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HARIZONA STATE—W 24-20775656+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HALCORN STATE—W 63-0————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 20HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 38-10966+51BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HTENNESSEE—L 34-41898787-30BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4ATEXAS A&M#8L 9-31959494-37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18AFLORIDA—L 21-23925454+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HTEXAS#12L 38-45988888-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AARKANSAS—W 38-35846161-4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HGEORGIA#6L 21-411009696-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15AMISSOURI—L 27-49858585-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HOLE MISS#3L 19-38859696-39BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2HWAKE FOREST—L 29-43476262-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB48TAL82PERF48RET76ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
BLAKE SHAPENQB SERET
★3★38576%+20HELD
1
KAMARIO TAYLORQB SONO SNAPS
★4—6622%+25—
17
LUKE KROMENHOEKQB SOPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★4★3293%-38FELL
15
PARKER PUCKETTQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB54TAL88PERF54RET56ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 21 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DAVON BOOTHRB SERET
★3★39042%+3HELD
24
FLUFF BOTHWELLRB JUPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA
★3★49042%+32ROSE
5
XAVIER GAYTENRB JURET
★4—6011%+35—
6
JOHNNIE DANIELSRB SERET
UNR★3353%+3EMERGED
6
KOLIN WILSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—211%——
23
SETH DAVISRB JURET
★3★3131%+29HELD
21
GERON JOHNSONRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE61TAL73PERF62RET40ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 38 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
ANTHONY EVANS IIIWR SEPORTAL · GEORGIA
★4★39932%+8FELL
8
SEYDOU TRAORETE SERET
UNR★49667%+17EMERGED
0
BRENEN THOMPSONWR SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★39426%+25FELL
11
AYDEN WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · OLE MISS
★4★38922%-34FELL
9
JORDAN MOSLEYWR SERET
★4★46911%+26HELD
87
SAM WESTTE JUPORTAL · INDIANA
★3★36215%+9HELD
10
CAM BALLTE SERET
★3★36014%-41HELD
11
RICKY JOHNSONWR SORET
★3★3554%-62HELD
13
SANFRISCO MAGEEWR SORET
★3—432%——
7
MAX REESETE SEPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
★3★3353%-31HELD
1
MARKUS ALLENWR SEPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN
★4★3241%+10FELL
7
JARON GLOVERWR SEPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE
★3★3201%+16HELD
88
JOESEPH SKIPWORTHTE FRTRUE FR
★3—141%——
7
CAM THOMPSONWR SEPORTAL · NORTHERN ILLINOIS
UNR★3140%+23EMERGED
0
GRACEN HARRISWR FRTRUE FR
★3—60%——
42
SAM PAXTONTE SERET
UNR—00%——
5
STONKA BURNSIDEWR SORET
★4★300%—FELL
83
FERZELL SHEPARDWR FRTRUE FR
★3★400%—ROSE
82
DAVIAN JACKSONWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
81
ISAIAH MITCHELLWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
80
AJ LEWIS JR.WR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
84
EMEKA ILOHTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
89
JESSIE PRIMER IVWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL54TAL67PERF54RET54n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL44TAL76PERF44RET50n=11 · 7 METRICS · 52 OBS
▸LB37TAL71PERF37RET48n=8 · 11 METRICS · 62 OBS
▸DB58TAL74PERF58RET72n=8 · 8 METRICS · 46 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS12 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
KAMARIO TAYLORHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
TYLER LOCKHARTHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
TYSHUN WILLISHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
KYLE JOHNSONHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
FERZELL SHEPARDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
GERON JOHNSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
GRACEN HARRISHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DAVIAN JACKSONHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
AJ LEWIS JR.HS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SEKOU SMITH JR.HS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN13 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
LUKE KROMENHOEKFLORIDA STATEQB★4★4
FLUFF BOTHWELLSOUTH ALABAMARB★3★4
DWIGHT LEWIS IIIMARIAN COLLEGECBUNR★4
MALICK SYLLATEXAS A&MEDGE★4★3
JALEN SMITHTENNESSEELB★4★3
DERION GULLETTETEXASLB★4★3
JAHRON MANNINGOLD DOMINIONSUNR★3
REDD HIBBLERNC STATEEDGEUNR★3
JAYVIN JAMESMARYLANDOT★3★3
BLAKE STEENVIRGINIAIOL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRICE POLLOCKTEXAS TECHCB★3★4
KEVIN COLEMAN JR.MISSOURIWR★4UNR
MICHAEL VAN BUREN JR.LSUQB★4★3
TY COOPERTULSADL★3★3
MARIO CRAVERTEXAS A&MWR★4★4
CHRIS KEYS JR.FLORIDA ATLANTICS★3★3
JOHN LEWISWEST VIRGINIALB★4★3
KEYVONE LEEUNLVRB★4★3
CREED WHITTEMOREUTAHWR★4★3
LEON BELLCALIFORNIAOLUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES27%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS60%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#28NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
4OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8829COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3235 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST50% BACK50th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG50% BACK50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR54%54th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR76%76th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST72%72th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE