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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|KEN NIUMATALOLO|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
NAVY79 FPIAAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
0FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
19%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1380 BC / 28
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-5
AVG SCORING MARGIN-2.4
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT15
CONTINUITY19
DEFENSE52
PERFORMANCE52
TALENT31
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
55MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HDELAWARE—L 7-144———NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 10HMEMPHIS—L 13-37476363-34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24AEAST CAROLINA—W 23-20424848-19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AAIR FORCE—L 10-1305656-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8HTULSA—W 53-21403434-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14ASMU—L 34-40555858-29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HHOUSTON—L 20-38585757-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HTEMPLE—W 27-20452020+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5ACINCINNATI—L 10-20658282-53BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HNOTRE DAME#18L 32-35937373-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AUCF—W 17-14627373-44BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
15DEC 10AARMY—L 17-2014444-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB31TAL20PERF31RET100ONE OWNERn=2 · 5 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
TAI LAVATAIQB SERET
UNR—5872%+27—
7
XAVIER ARLINEQB SERET
UNR—3216%-34—
9
MAASAI MAYNORQB SERET
★3—2612%-7—
3
KING BENFORDQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
4
ZACHARY BRANAMQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
10
TEDROS GLEATONQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
11
BLAKE HORVATHQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB48TAL15PERF48RET58ROTATIONn=6 · 9 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
45
DABA FOFANAFB SENO SNAPS
★2—8225%——
28
MAQUEL HAYWOODRB SERET
UNR★27620%+38EMERGED
34
ANTON HALL JR.RB JURET
★3—6413%-30—
21
KAI PUAILOA-ROJASRB SERET
★2—558%+30—
38
LOGAN POINTFB SENO SNAPS
★3—464%——
29
DANIEL JONESRB SERET
★2—424%+8—
28
AMIN HASSANRB SERET
★2—383%——
35
MIKE MAUAIFB SERET
UNR—00%——
39
BRANDON MADISONFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
40
KHALIL CRAWFORDFB SERET
UNR—00%——
26
CAMERON SMITHRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
42
THOMAS MARSHALLFB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
DREVONN PONDERFB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
FABIAN FRANCERB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
DANNY ENOVITCHRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
TK KOCAKFB FRTRUE FR
★2—00%——
37
SHANE REYNOLDSRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
KENZO VITERIFB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
46
ALEX TECZARB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE52TAL13PERF52RET48ONE OWNERn=2 · 6 METRICS · 12 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
80
AKALEA KAPONOTE SERET
★2—6883%——
87
JAYDEN UMBARGERWR SERET
UNR—6445%+25—
80
MARK WALKERWR SERET
UNR—6345%+23—
81
MICHAEL NAZEWR SERET
★3—4017%——
89
CAMARI WILLIAMSWR SERET
UNR—285%——
82
NATHAN KENTWR SENO SNAPS
★3—26100%——
KROY MYERSWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—234%——
25
CAMPBELL SPEIGHTSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—90%——
82
ZACHARY KUHLMANWR SERET
UNR—00%——
85
LUKE MORLEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
84
REGIS VELEZWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
23
VINCENT TERRELL JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
22
CAMEREN DALRYMPLEWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
86
CHRISTIAN HUTCHINSONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
83
JOHN AMELLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
91
JACKSON BOYERWR JURET
★2—00%——
15
JOHN MEAGHERWR SERET
★2—00%——
81
COLIN O'CONNORWR SERET
UNR—00%——
94
GRACEN BELLTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
88
THOMAS SCULLYTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
D.J. DONOVANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
83
CODY HOWARDTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
DONOVAN DRAPERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
22
ELI HEIDENREICHWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
26
MAURICE MOOREWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
24
BRANDON CHATMANWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
47
BRAYLON GREENTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL46TAL12PERF46RET13n=7 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL52TAL41PERF52RET80n=5 · 8 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸LB66TAL12PERF66RET98n=5 · 11 METRICS · 51 OBS
▸DB56TAL35PERF56RET91n=9 · 8 METRICS · 41 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
GRACEN BELLHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
NATHAN KENTHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
AARON JONESHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
CHRISTOPHER CALHOUN IIHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ROMELLO JONESHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
LORENZO VITTIHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JASEAN MCLEANHS RECRUITS★2UNR
PETER ROLLHS RECRUITS★2UNR
RILEY BERGESONHS RECRUITATH★2UNR
KARSON LOPATIHS RECRUITQB★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT21 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOHNNY HODGESTCULB★3UNR
CARLINOS ACIEELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
MITCHELL WESTELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
MICHAEL MCMORRISELIGIBILITY UPCB★2—
JAMAL GLENNELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
CHANCE WARRENELIGIBILITY UPRB★2—
JAMES HARRIS IIELIGIBILITY UPFBUNR—
ISAAC RUOSSELIGIBILITY UPFBUNR—
JOHN KELLY IIIELIGIBILITY UPLB★2—
KEVIN BRENNANELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#138NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 28 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8025COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGANY — MERGEDQUARTERBACKANY — MERGED
25TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
1
4
8
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-4 TO +6 W
IMPROVED12 OF 25
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THIS PROFILE WAS TOO RARE TO STAND ALONE AND A BROADER CELL IS SHOWN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST47% BACK47th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG47% BACK47th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR13%13th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST91%91th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE