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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|BRIAN NEWBERRY|—RECORD11-2|CONF—
NAVY#23 AP 68 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
1FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
68%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
91%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-5IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1320 BC / 50
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.2
10 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE72
PERFORMANCE72
TALENT42
CONTINUITY68
DEFENSE30
PERFORMANCE30
TALENT31
CONTINUITY91
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
49MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HVMI—W 52-7————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HUAB—W 38-242688+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13ATULSA—W 42-23392424+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HRICE—W 21-13231212+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HAIR FORCE—W 34-3104141+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ATEMPLE—W 32-31183636+30BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—W 42-32412828+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ANORTH TEXAS#24L 17-31318484-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8ANOTRE DAME#10L 10-49949797-31BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HSOUTH FLORIDA—W 41-38567979-13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 27AMEMPHIS—W 28-17587272-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
16DEC 13HARMY—W 17-1614646+20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2ACINCINNATI—W 35-13475959+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB60TAL35PERF60RET100ONE OWNERn=3 · 8 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
BLAKE HORVATHQB SERET
UNR—7387%+39—
5
BRAXTON WOODSONQB SERET
★3—3911%-48—
8
JACKSON GUTIERREZQB JURET
UNR—101%——
9
MASON BAKERQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
2
TRE JONES IIIQB JURET
★3—00%——
6
J.P. DOYLEQB SORET
UNR—00%——
7
LANDON WALKERQB SONO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
1
ALEX ERBYQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
10
RYAN BRASSQB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
15
BRADY MCDONOUGHQB FRTRUE FR
★3★200%—FELL
16
MICHAEL DOVEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB42TAL0PERF42RET99ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
46
ALEX TECZARB SERET
UNR—8730%+21—
37
SHANE REYNOLDSRB SERET
UNR—352%-46—
40
VIC LISTORTIRB SERET
UNR—90%——
28
MIKEY PEARSON IIIRB SORET
UNR—90%——
41
STEFAN EGBEFB SERET
UNR—00%——
42
WILLIAM INGLERB JURET
UNR—00%——
31
JAI HUNDLEYRB JURET
★3—00%——
44
AYDIN WOOLFOLKRB JURET
UNR—00%——
34
JADYN JONESRB JURET
UNR—00%——
32
CHRISTIAN CROMERRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE0TAL33PERF0RET72ONE OWNERn=2 · 3 METRICS · 5 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
22
ELI HEIDENREICHWR SERET
UNR—9134%+37—
24
BRANDON CHATMANWR SERET
UNR—8629%-3—
85
JAKE NORRISTE SERET
UNR—8241%-14—
87
THEO ELWELLTE JURET
UNR—6722%——
83
CODY HOWARDTE SERET
UNR—6521%+54—
86
JOSHUA GUERINWR SERET
UNR—6061%-51—
84
JORDAN COLLINSTE SONO SNAPS
★3—5813%——
82
NATHAN KENTWR SERET
★3—5750%+26—
89
LUKE HUTCHISONWR SERET
UNR—5135%-1—
23
CHARLES ROBINSONWR JURET
★3—393%——
49
WILL MILESTE SORET
★3—333%——
26
MICHAEL BARROWWR JURET
UNR—181%——
0
KENDALL EVANSWR JURET
UNR—154%——
20
TK HODGESWR JURET
UNR—60%——
23
TYLER BRADLEYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
29
GAGE LEONARDWR SERET
UNR—00%——
43
GAVIN NOETE SERET
★3—00%——
80
ARNEL HEATHINGTONWR SERET
UNR—00%——
81
CASEY SMITHWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
NOAH BULLWR SERET
UNR—00%——
25
ISAIAH BRYANTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
47
JUSTICE RIDERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
45
MERRICK BARLOWTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
ANDRE GILBERT JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
15
PAUL LEWISWR SORET
UNR—00%——
3
PROSPER AKANNAWR JURET
UNR—00%——
18
ANDERSEN CARDOZAWR JURET
UNR—00%——
10
DREW HALLTE JURET
UNR—00%——
88
JUSTIN BONSUWR SORET
UNR—00%——
1
SANTINO SANCHEZWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
2
JEREMIAH CHALMERSWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
9
ELI HARRISWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
13
LANDON DOLHANCYKWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
14
MADDAX FAYARDWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
16
ALONZO MANNING IIWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
21
BRAEDEN GEORGEWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
36
BRAYDEN ROBERTSONTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL51TAL45PERF51RET50n=8 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL60TAL23PERF60RET99n=6 · 7 METRICS · 32 OBS
▸LB51TAL18PERF52RET85n=8 · 11 METRICS · 66 OBS
▸DB41TAL57PERF41RET89n=10 · 6 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MERRICK BARLOWHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
BUDDY COLLINSHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
GARRISON DIBBLEHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
LOGAN WEGMANHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
BRAYDEN ROBERTSONHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
SEAN MARTINHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JORDAN COLLINSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MICHAEL DOVEHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JACK HEATHHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACOB WILLIAMSHS RECRUITATH★2UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT22 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RAYUAN LANE IIINFL DRAFT R6SUNR—
COLIN RAMOSELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
MBITI WILLIAMS JR.ELIGIBILITY UPS★2—
KYLE JACOBELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
JAVAN BOUTONELIGIBILITY UPG★3—
BRENT SELFELIGIBILITY UPC★2—
CONNOR MCMAHONELIGIBILITY UPOTUNR—
DASHAUN PEELEELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
JUSTIN REEDELIGIBILITY UPDEUNR—
THOMAS SCULLYELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES13%3 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS16%5 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#132NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 50 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8138COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
05 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
123TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
22
31
30
29
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +7 W
IMPROVED59 OF 123
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST91% BACK91th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG91% BACK91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR50%50th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST89%89th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE