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● LIVE|2024 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
ACC|DAVE DOEREN|—RECORD6-7|CONF—
NC STATE65 FPIACC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
72FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
54%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
71%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#275 BC / 23
BC RATIO
27%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
6-6ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-1.3
6 wins against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE70
PERFORMANCE70
TALENT85
CONTINUITY54
DEFENSE41
PERFORMANCE41
TALENT74
CONTINUITY71
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
53MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 29HWESTERN CAROLINA—W 38-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HTENNESSEE#9L 10-51889494-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HLOUISIANA TECH—W 30-20261818+41BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21ACLEMSON#14L 35-59978484-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HNORTHERN ILLINOIS—W 24-17103838+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HWAKE FOREST—L 30-34493030+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12HSYRACUSE#20L 17-24666666-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 19ACALIFORNIA—W 24-236659590BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 2HSTANFORD—W 59-28702424+35BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 9HDUKE—L 19-29506868-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 21AGEORGIA TECH—L 29-30675151+8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30ANORTH CAROLINA—W 35-30856464-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28HEAST CAROLINA—L 21-26474545+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB64TAL86PERF64RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
CJ BAILEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★4—8478%+22—
2
GRAYSON MCCALLQB SEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★2★46320%+46ROSE
2
LEX THOMASQB SORET
★3★3182%—HELD
13
ETHAN RHODESQB SERET
UNR—00%——
19
COLE WILSONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
22
ROBERT SHOCKEYQB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾RB58TAL97PERF58RET32ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSRB JUPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
★4★48234%+33HELD
7
JORDAN WATERSRB SEPORTAL · DUKE
★3★48132%-6ROSE
6
KENDRICK RAPHAELRB SERET
★3★48030%-6ROSE
28
DEMARCUS JONES IIRB SERET
UNR—222%-37—
1
JAYDEN SCOTTRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—121%——
31
COLESON FIELDSRB SORET
UNR—91%——
14
JONATHAN PAYLORRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
3
JORDAN POOLERB JURET
★4—00%——
26
ISIAH JONESRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
25
DARIUS JOHNSONRB SERET
★2—00%——
▾WR/TE64TAL90PERF58RET32ONE OWNERn=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
7
JUSTIN JOLYTE SEPORTAL · UCONN
★2★49775%+35ROSE
7
KC CONCEPCIONWR JURET
★3★49428%+13ROSE
5
NOAH ROGERSWR SEPORTAL · OHIO STATE
★4★48119%+15HELD
3
DACARI COLLINSWR SERET
★4★37817%+14FELL
6
WESLEY GRIMESWR SEPORTAL · WAKE FOREST
★4★37515%+16FELL
8
KEENAN JACKSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—669%+20—
9
TERRELL ANDERSONWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★4649%-11HELD
87
DANTE DANIELSTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—6320%——
49
REID MITCHELLTE SORET
UNR—415%——
21
JALEN COITWR JURET
★3★3321%—HELD
6
ASHTON LOCKLEARWR SERET
UNR—261%——
11
JAKOLBE BALDWINWR SERET
★3★3241%—HELD
4
TANK BOSTONWR SONO SNAPS
★3★370%—HELD
83
CHRISTIAN ZACHARYWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
88
JAYDEN HOLLARWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
31
JAXON GODBEYWR SORET
UNR—00%——
29
ELI CALHOUNWR SORET
UNR—00%——
37
NATHAN CARRWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
32
JEFFREY SIMMSWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
ELIJAH TILLERYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL65TAL80PERF65RET75n=5 · 3 METRICS · 15 OBS
▸DL43TAL73PERF43RET88n=8 · 7 METRICS · 35 OBS
▸LB55TAL60PERF55RET99n=5 · 11 METRICS · 42 OBS
▸DB53TAL82PERF53RET41n=11 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JONATHAN PAYLORHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
TERRELL ANDERSONHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
ELIJAH GROVESHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
CJ BAILEYHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
RONNIE ROYAL IIIHS RECRUITATH★4UNR
ROBBY MARTINHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
DUKE SCOTTHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ASAAD BROWN JR.HS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KEENAN JACKSONHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JOSHUA OFORHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN11 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NOAH ROGERSOHIO STATEWR★4★4
JUSTIN JOLYUCONNTE★2★4
JORDAN WATERSDUKERB★3★4
GRAYSON MCCALLCOASTAL CAROLINAQB★2★4
ZEKE CORRELLNOTRE DAMEIOL★4★3
JA'HAD CARTEROHIO STATESUNR★3
DEVON MARSHALLVILLANOVACBUNR★3
COREY COLEY JR.MARYLANDCBUNR★3
HOLLYWOOD SMOTHERSOKLAHOMARB★4★3
WESLEY GRIMESWAKE FORESTWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
C.J. CLARKMIAMIDL★4★3
LYNDON COOPERPITTSBURGHOL★3★3
JULIAN GRAYLIBERTYRB★3★4
MJ MORRISMARYLANDQB★4★3
DELBERT MIMMS IIIEASTERN MICHIGANRB★3★3
MICHAEL ALLENUNLVRB★4★4
TERRELL TIMMONS JR.COLORADOWR★3★3
JORDAN HOUSTONMARSHALLRB★3★3
ANTHONY SMITHEAST CAROLINAWR★3★3
CECIL POWELLTROYDB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES76%9 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS55%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#27NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
5OF 23 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8790COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1523 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
74TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-2.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
16
24
15
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.8 W
FULL RANGE-8 TO +5 W
IMPROVED19 OF 74
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST22% BACK22th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG22% BACK22th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR75%75th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST41%41th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE