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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
MOUNTAIN WEST|JASON ECK|—RECORD9-4|CONF—
NEW MEXICO78 FPIMWC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
5FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
28%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
24%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-1IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1940 BC / 18
BC RATIO
7%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN+5.4
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE33
PERFORMANCE33
TALENT30
CONTINUITY28
DEFENSE51
PERFORMANCE51
TALENT33
CONTINUITY24
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
39MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30AMICHIGAN#21L 17-34938282-35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HIDAHO STATE—W 32-22————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 12AUCLA—W 35-10822828+19BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 38-2061010+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 28-35211313+34BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11ABOISE STATE—L 25-41425353-6BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18HNEVADA—W 24-22141515+32BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HUTAH STATE—W 33-14184242+5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1AUNLV—W 40-35645959-12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HCOLORADO STATE—W 20-173499+38BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AAIR FORCE—W 20-304141+6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 28HSAN DIEGO STATE—W 23-17386969-22BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 26AMINNESOTA—L 17-20714949-2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB37TAL17PERF37RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 11 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
2
JACK LAYNEQB SEPORTAL · IDAHO
★2★38995%—ROSE
12
JAMES LAUBSTEINQB SERET
UNR—365%——
13
TOA FA'AVAEQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
12
COLE WELLIVERQB FRPORTAL · UCONN
★3★300%—HELD
3
GABRIEL MOTSCHENBACHERQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB45TAL60PERF45RET0ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 18 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
1
DAMON BANKSTONRB SEPORTAL · WEBER STATE
UNR★39344%+30EMERGED
4
D.J. MCKINNEYRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—8533%+5—
22
SCOTTRE HUMPHREYRB SEPORTAL · MONTANA STATE
★3★37118%+23HELD
8
DESHAUN BUCHANANRB SEPORTAL · IDAHO
★3★3465%—HELD
26
REI IWAIRB JURET
UNR—00%——
20
DARRION BOWERSRB SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
25
TY BATTLERB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE46TAL41PERF43RET22ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 43 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
0
DORIAN THOMASTE JUPORTAL · ARIZONA
★3★49554%+33ROSE
6
KEAGAN JOHNSONWR SEPORTAL · KANSAS STATE
★4★39336%+2FELL
1
SHAWN MILLERWR SERET
★3★38729%-4HELD
6
ZHAIEL SMITHWR SONO SNAPS
★3—7821%-58—
88
CADE KEITHTE JUPORTAL · TCU
UNR★27726%+49EMERGED
85
SIMON MAPATE SEPORTAL · CALIFORNIA
UNR★36919%—EMERGED
17
MICHAEL BUCKLEYWR JURET
UNR—6814%+18—
5
ISAIAH BLAIRWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—191%——
11
AIDEN VALDEZTE JUPORTAL · CAMPBELL
★3★3121%—HELD
87
ABRAHAM WILLIAMSWR SEPORTAL · IDAHO
UNR★300%—EMERGED
87
MILES JOHNSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
10
EVAN WYSONGWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
XAVIER VANWR JURET
★3—00%——
19
MARCUS VINSONTE SENO SNAPS
★3★300%+12HELD
9
KADER DIOPWR SERET
UNR—00%——
21
DERIECE BROWNWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
82
JT JETERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
KJ CHERRYWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
86
ALDIN BILALBEGOVICTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
89
JERED RENNICKWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL34TAL19PERF34RET34n=8 · 3 METRICS · 23 OBS
▸DL66TAL35PERF66RET26n=8 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB58TAL43PERF58RET0n=5 · 10 METRICS · 30 OBS
▸DB51TAL27PERF51RET12n=10 · 8 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS5 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CJ MCBEANHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DERIECE BROWNHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
JAYMAR TASIHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
JAMES MARSHALL VHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MARKO LUERAHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN20 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SCOTTRE HUMPHREYMONTANA STATERB★3★3
KEYSHAWN JAMES-NEWBYIDAHOEDGEUNR★3
DAMON BANKSTONWEBER STATERBUNR★3
XAVIER SLAYTONIDAHOEDGE★2★3
JAXTON ECKIDAHOLBUNR★3
KEAGAN JOHNSONKANSAS STATEWR★4★3
DJ MCKINNEYSAM HOUSTONRB★3★3
COLE WELLIVERUCONNQB★3★3
DESHAUN BUCHANANIDAHORB★3★3
ABRAHAM WILLIAMSIDAHOCBUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT47 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHRISTIAN ELLISVIRGINIA TECHS★3★3
MCKENZIE AGNELLOHOUSTONOLUNR★3
NOAH AVINGERUTAH STATECB★3★3
LAJUAN OWENSCALIFORNIAOL★3★3
MOSO'OIPALA TUITELECOLORADO STATEDL★3★3
BRYSON TAYLORUTAH STATECBUNRUNR
WALLACE UNAMBAVIRGINIAOLUNR★3
NIGEL WILLIAMSLOUISVILLEDB★3★3
DEVON DAMPIERUTAHQB★3★3
ANTOINEO HARRIS JR.UCONNDLUNR★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES100%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS96%9 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#194NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 18 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8221COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
3536 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
73TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
15
14
24
9
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED33 OF 73
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST10% BACK10th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG10% BACK10th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR34%34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST12%12th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE