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HOME›TEAMS›NORTH CAROLINA›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
ACC|MACK BROWN|—RECORD9-5|CONF—
NORTH CAROLINA43 FPIACC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
89FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
11%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1110 BC / 26
BC RATIO
43%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-4ACTUALvs7.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+4.0
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE93
PERFORMANCE93
TALENT75
CONTINUITY11
DEFENSE15
PERFORMANCE15
TALENT73
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE14 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
4 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 27HFLORIDA A&M—W 56-24————NON-FBS OPPONENT
1SEP 3AAPP STATE—W 63-61335050+15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10AGEORGIA STATE—W 35-28384040+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HNOTRE DAME#18L 32-45937373-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1HVIRGINIA TECH—W 41-10632525+40BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8AMIAMI—W 27-24914242+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15ADUKE—W 38-35555858+7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29HPITTSBURGH#22W 42-24687070-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5AVIRGINIA—W 31-28582828+37BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12AWAKE FOREST—W 36-34526868-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19HGEORGIA TECH—L 17-21792222+43BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HNC STATE—L 27-30756363+2BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 3HCLEMSON#13L 10-39979191-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 28HOREGON#15L 27-28969292-27BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB67TAL97PERF67RET100ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
DRAKE MAYEQB SORET
★4—10099%+29—
6
JACOLBY CRISWELLQB SERET
★4★3111%-19FELL
14
JEFFERSON BOAZQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
16
RUSSELL TABORQB SORET
UNR—00%——
15
CONNER HARRELLQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
▾RB41TAL52PERF41RET68ONE OWNERn=5 · 9 METRICS · 23 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
21
ELIJAH GREENRB SERET
★3★38948%+7HELD
28
OMARION HAMPTONRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—7023%-8—
4
CALEB HOODRB SERET
★3★46620%+15ROSE
6
GEORGE PETTAWAYRB JUNO SNAPS
★4★3529%-25FELL
26
DJ JONESRB SERET
★3★300%-7HELD
24
BRITISH BROOKSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
25
KELLAN HOODRB FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE62TAL81PERF58RET81ROTATIONn=9 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
J.J. JONESWR SERET
★4—10028%+17—
11
JOSH DOWNSWR JURET
★4—9925%+18—
3
ANTOINE GREENWR SERET
★4—9219%+22—
88
KAMARI MORALESTE SERET
★3★38538%+26HELD
81
JOHN COPENHAVERTE SERET
★3—8032%+28—
6
GAVIN BLACKWELLWR SERET
★4★37813%+13FELL
18
BRYSON NESBITTE SERET
★4—7528%+33—
8
KOBE PAYSOURWR SERET
★3★37311%+1HELD
18
ANDRE GREENE JR.WR SENO SNAPS
★4★3503%-61FELL
4
JUSTIN OLSONWR SERET
★3★3311%—HELD
85
KENDALL KARRTE SERET
★3★3221%—HELD
1
TYCHAUN CHAPMANWR JUNO SNAPS
★4★3100%—FELL
80
WILL CROWLEYTE JURET
UNR—90%——
13
TYLEE CRAFTWR SERET
★3—00%——
29
JEFFREY SATURDAYWR JURET
UNR—00%——
85
LANDON STEVENSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
20
BROOKS MILLERWR JURET
★3—00%——
84
CYRUS ROGERSWR JURET
UNR—00%——
86
THOMAS FLYNNWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
GRADY SHERRILLWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
27
MICHAEL HALLWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
38
AIDEN CLONINGERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
DEEMS MAYTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
JAKE YOUNGTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL44TAL69PERF44RET0n=6 · 3 METRICS · 17 OBS
▸DL29TAL78PERF29RET88n=9 · 8 METRICS · 49 OBS
▸LB39TAL81PERF39RET80n=5 · 11 METRICS · 37 OBS
▸DB46TAL66PERF46RET83n=9 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS25 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
ZACH RICEHS RECRUITOT★5UNR
TRAVIS SHAWHS RECRUITDL★5UNR
ANDRE GREENE JR.HS RECRUITWR★4UNR
GEORGE PETTAWAYHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
OMARION HAMPTONHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
SEBASTIAN CHEEKSHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
TYCHAUN CHAPMANHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
MALI HAMRICKHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
TAYON HOLLOWAYHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
BEAU ATKINSONHS RECRUITEDGE★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT17 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CLYDE PINDERSOUTH FLORIDADL★4UNR
KHAFRE BROWNSOUTH FLORIDAWR★4★3
KRISTIAN VARNERGEORGIA SOUTHERNDL★3UNR
EUGENE ASANTEAUBURNLB★4UNR
STEPHEN GOSNELLVIRGINIA TECHWR★3UNR
ALEX NOBLESFLORIDA INTERNATIONALLBUNRUNR
JOSH HENDERSONINDIANARB★3UNR
EMERY SIMMONSINDIANAWR★3★3
TREY MORRISONOKLAHOMADB★3UNR
TYRONE HOPPERMISSOURIDL★3UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#11NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
10OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.9122COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
48TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
3
11
10
12
12
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +2.3 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +10 W
IMPROVED24 OF 48
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST36% BACK36th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG36% BACK36th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR100%100th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST83%83th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE