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● LIVE|2021 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›TEAMS›NOTRE DAME›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
FBS INDEPENDENTS|BRIAN KELLY|—RECORD11-1|CONF—
NOTRE DAME#8 AP 6 FPIIND · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
92FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-15IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#914 BC / 27
BC RATIO
60%CLEARS
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-1ACTUALvs9.9-2.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+17.0
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 9.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
54MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
1 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 5AFLORIDA STATE—W 41-38866060+32BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11HTOLEDO—W 32-29385757+35BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HPURDUE—W 27-13677373+19BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25AWISCONSIN—W 41-13859595-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 2HCINCINNATI#4L 13-24639797-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 9AVIRGINIA TECH—W 32-29724747+45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23HUSC—W 31-16933838+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HNORTH CAROLINA—W 44-34885555+37BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6HNAVY—W 34-672222+70BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13AVIRGINIA—W 28-3625858+34BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 20HGEORGIA TECH—W 55-0772626+66BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 27ASTANFORD—W 45-14831919+73BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET1NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
17
JACK COANQB SEPORTAL · WISCONSIN
★3★300%—HELD
9
DREW PYNEQB SERET
★4★300%—FELL
8
COLE CAPENQB SERET
UNR—00%——
4
BRENDON CLARKQB SORET
★3—00%——
11
RON POWLUS IIIQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET97NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
23
KYREN WILLIAMSRB JURET
★4—00%——
26
LEO ALBANORB SERET
UNR—00%——
24
C'BO FLEMISTERRB SERET
★3—00%——
7
AUDRIC ESTIMERB JUNO SNAPS
★4—00%——
22
LOGAN DIGGSRB SENO SNAPS
★3★400%—ROSE
27
CHASE KETTERERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
3
AVERY DAVISWR SERET
★4—00%——
80
GEORGE TAKACSTE SERET
★4—00%——
4
KEVIN AUSTIN JR.WR JURET
UNR—00%——
BRADEN LENZYWR SERET
★4—00%——
29
MATT SALERNOWR SERET
UNR—00%——
1
JOE WILKINS JR.WR SERET
★3—00%——
87
MICHAEL MAYERTE JURET
★5—00%——
84
KEVIN BAUMANTE SERET
★4—00%——
4
CHRIS TYREEWR SERET
★4★300%—FELL
38
DAVIS SHERWOODTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
10
TYLER BUCHNERWR SENO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
4
DEION COLZIEWR SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
88
MITCHELL EVANSTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
6
LAWRENCE KEYS IIIWR SERET
★4—00%——
43
GREG MAILEYWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
CANE BERRONGTE SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
86
CONOR RATIGANWR SERET
UNR—00%——
28
GRIFFIN EIFERTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
89
CHARLIE SELNATE SERET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS24 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BLAKE FISHERHS RECRUITOT★4UNR
ROCCO SPINDLERHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
TYLER BUCHNERHS RECRUITQB★4UNR
DEION COLZIEHS RECRUITWR★4UNR
LORENZO STYLES JR.HS RECRUITWR★4UNR
GABRIEL RUBIOHS RECRUITDL★4UNR
PRINCE KOLLIEHS RECRUITLB★4UNR
AUDRIC ESTIMEHS RECRUITRB★4UNR
CANE BERRONGHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
PHILIP RILEYHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN1 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CAIN MADDENMARSHALLIOLUNR★4
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT15 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
OVIE OGHOUFOTEXASDE★3★3
JACK LAMBCOLORADOLB★4★3
JAHMIR SMITHAPP STATERB★3★3
BENNETT SKOWRONEKNFL DRAFT R7WR★3—
DAELIN HAYESNFL DRAFT R5DL★4—
IAN BOOKNFL DRAFT R4QB★3—
ADETOKUNBO OGUNDEJINFL DRAFT R5DL★3—
JEREMIAH OWUSU-KORAMOAHNFL DRAFT R2LB★3—
TOMMY TREMBLENFL DRAFT R3TE★3—
NICK MCCLOUDELIGIBILITY UPDB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#9NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
14OF 27 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8994COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
217 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTTOP QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
68TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
14
11
19
16
8
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.3 TO +1.0 W
FULL RANGE-11 TO +7 W
IMPROVED24 OF 68
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST46% BACK46th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG46% BACK46th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
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