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HOME›TEAMS›OREGON STATE›2018TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2018 FINAL
PAC-12|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD2-10|CONF—
OREGON STATE104 FPIPAC · 2018 SEASON
TALENT
51FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#700 BC / 24
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2018 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs2.5-9.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
AVG SCORING MARGIN-19.6
2 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.5. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
67MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 1AOHIO STATE#3L 31-771009696-81BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 8HSOUTHERN UTAH—W 48-25————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 15ANEVADA—L 35-37374141-26BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HARIZONA—L 14-35645656-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 29AARIZONA STATE—L 24-52806161-46BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 6HWASHINGTON STATE#10L 37-56567676-61BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 20HCALIFORNIA—L 7-49685858-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 27ACOLORADO—W 41-34623939-24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 3HUSC—L 21-38987474-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 10ASTANFORD—L 17-48888181-66BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17AWASHINGTON#13L 23-42889090-75BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23HOREGON—L 15-55826969-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET38NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
JAKE LUTONQB SERET
UNR—00%——
12
CONOR BLOUNTQB SORET
UNR—00%——
4
AIDAN WILLARDQB SORET
★3—00%——
13
TRISTAN GEBBIAQB SENO SNAPS
★4★300%—FELL
18
NICK MOOREQB JUNO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET20NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
B.J. BAYLORRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
21
ARTAVIS PIERCERB SERET
★3—00%——
32
MIKEY ALFIERIRB SORET
UNR—00%——
6
JERMAR JEFFERSONRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
30
KASE ROGERSRB SORET
UNR—00%——
29
CHRISTIAN WALLACERB SORET
★4—00%——
4
CALVIN TYLER JR.RB SERET
★3—00%——
30
HUNTER MATTSONRB —RET
UNR—00%——
2
CALVIN TYLER, JR.RB —RET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
KOLBY TAYLORWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
7
CHAMP FLEMINGSWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
86
ANDRE BODDENWR SERET
UNR—00%——
8
TREVON BRADFORDWR SERET
★3—00%——
10
ISAIAH SMALLSTE SORET
UNR—00%——
13
JESIAH IRISHWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
TEAGAN QUITORIANOTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
NOAH TOGIAITE SERET
UNR—00%——
19
AARON SHORTWR SERET
UNR—00%——
18
TIMMY HERNANDEZWR SERET
UNR—00%——
17
ISAIAH HODGINSWR JURET
★4—00%——
9
TINO ALLENWR SORET
★3—00%——
45
RALPH TAUFA'ASAUTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
BRYCE BRAMSCHERTE JURET
UNR—00%——
89
JACK HOLUMTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
82
JOB DOCKERYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
83
QUINN SMITHTE —RET
UNR—00%——
80
CONNOR LAVERTYWR —RET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS24 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JERMAR JEFFERSONHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
JOSHUA GRAYHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
MATTHEW TAGOHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ISAAC HODGINSHS RECRUITDT★3UNR
TEAGAN QUITORIANOHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
ISAIAH SMALLSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
JAKE DUKARTHS RECRUITPRO★3UNR
DESHON WILSONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JAKE LEVENGOODHS RECRUITOG★3UNR
I'SHAWN STEWARTHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
XAVIER CRAWFORDCENTRAL MICHIGANCBUNRUNR
SETH COLLINSTEXAS TECHDBUNRUNR
MANASE HUNGALUNOT LISTEDILBUNR—
FRED LAUINANOT LISTEDOLUNR—
JORDAN VILLAMINNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
AUSTIN HUDSONNOT LISTEDSUNR—
XAVIER HAWKINSNOT LISTEDWRUNR—
RYAN NALLNOT LISTEDRBUNR—
BRIGHT UGWOEGBUNOT LISTEDOLBUNR—
RICKY LIUCHANNOT LISTEDDEUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#70NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 24 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8322COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
39TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
2
14
4
12
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.5 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +8 W
IMPROVED19 OF 39
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST38% BACK38th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG38% BACK38th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR38%38th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE