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HOME›TEAMS›OREGON STATE›2022TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
PAC-12|JONATHAN SMITH|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
OREGON STATE#17 AP 19 FPIPAC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
61FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
7%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#560 BC / 19
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+11.0
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE61
PERFORMANCE61
TALENT54
CONTINUITY7
DEFENSE81
PERFORMANCE81
TALENT53
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
62MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
5 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3HBOISE STATE—W 34-17486161+23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10AFRESNO STATE#24W 35-32445555+29BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 17HMONTANA STATE—W 68-28————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 24HUSC#12L 14-17939292-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5OCT 1AUTAH#10L 16-42779393-9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 8ASTANFORD—W 28-27852929+55BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15HWASHINGTON STATE—W 24-10507272+12BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HCOLORADO—W 42-95655+79BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4AWASHINGTON#8L 21-24858787-3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12HCALIFORNIA—W 38-10664242+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AARIZONA STATE—W 31-7723838+46BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HOREGON#15W 38-34969292-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17HFLORIDA—W 30-3927575+9BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB36TAL57PERF36RET34ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 10 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
BEN GULBRANSONQB SERET
★3★37163%+9HELD
15
CHANCE NOLANQB SERET
★2★36034%+18ROSE
13
TRISTAN GEBBIAQB SERET
★4★3213%+17FELL
4
TRAVIS THROCKMORTONQB FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
15
DOM MONTIELQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB62TAL59PERF62RET41ROTATIONn=3 · 5 METRICS · 14 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
DAMIEN MARTINEZRB JUNO SNAPS
★3★48942%+28ROSE
1
DESHAUN FENWICKRB SERET
★3★38028%+10HELD
8
JAM GRIFFINRB SENO SNAPS
★4★36717%-16FELL
21
TREY LOWERB JURET
★4—445%+24—
9
ISAIAH NEWELLRB SORET
★3★3425%+38HELD
29
KANOA SHANNONRB JURET
UNR—343%-3—
24
GAVIN HAINESRB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
34
JAKE REICHLERB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE50TAL78PERF52RET55ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
87
JAKE OVERMANTE SERET
★3★39552%-42HELD
TRE'SHAUN HARRISONWR SERET
★4—8531%+16—
12
JACK VELLINGTE SENO SNAPS
★3★48232%+50ROSE
1
TYJON LINDSEYWR SERET
★4—7422%-9—
2
ANTHONY GOULDWR JURET
★3—7220%+36—
11
SILAS BOLDENWR SERET
★3★46917%+12ROSE
0
JOHN DUNMOREWR SERET
★4★4547%-16HELD
88
LUKE MUSGRAVETE JURET
★3—5311%+7—
13
JESIAH IRISHWR SERET
★3—393%——
8
BRYCE CAUFIELDTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—292%——
86
MALIK KELLEYTE SORET
UNR—231%——
88
J.T. BYRNETE SENO SNAPS
★3★3231%—HELD
2
JIMMY VALSIN IIIWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3201%—HELD
15
JEREMIAH NOGAWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★3100%—EMERGED
82
GABE MILBOURNTE SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
87
RILEY SHARPTE SERET
★3—00%——
13
CARTER NEUMANTE SENO SNAPS
★2★200%—HELD
8
RWEHA MUNYAGI JR.WR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
TREVOR POPEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
19
JAKE BLAIRWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
7
TRENT WALKERWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
23
WALKER RINEYWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL59TAL37PERF59RET1n=7 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL33TAL68PERF33RET77n=6 · 7 METRICS · 28 OBS
▸LB36TAL69PERF36RET42n=7 · 11 METRICS · 54 OBS
▸DB63TAL25PERF63RET81n=8 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS19 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MATHIAS MALAKI-DONALDSONHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MELVIN JORDAN IVHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
DAMIEN MARTINEZHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
QUINCY WRIGHTHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DYLAN LOPEZHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
LUKA VINCICHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
JACK VELLINGHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
NOBLE THOMASHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
TRAVIS THROCKMORTONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JOE SWENHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT16 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
SAM VIDLAKBOISE STATEQB★3★3
CHAMP FLEMINGSARKANSAS STATEWR★3UNR
KYREI FISHERELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
TREVON BRADFORDELIGIBILITY UPWR★3—
ANDRZEJ HUGHES-MURRAYELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
KEONTE SCHADELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
SAM NOYERELIGIBILITY UPQB★3—
ELIJAH JONESELIGIBILITY UPCBUNR—
ZERIAH BEASONNOT LISTEDWR★3—
AVERY ROBERTSNOT LISTEDLBUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#56NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 19 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8553COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST64% BACK64th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG64% BACK64th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR1%1th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR34%34th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST81%81th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE