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SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
ACC|PAT NARDUZZI|—RECORD8-5|CONF—
PITTSBURGH39 FPIACC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
60FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
62%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-11IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#511 BC / 25
BC RATIO
10%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN+10.2
8 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE69
PERFORMANCE69
TALENT66
CONTINUITY62
DEFENSE88
PERFORMANCE88
TALENT72
CONTINUITY79
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
56MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30HDUQUESNE—W 61-9————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 6HCENTRAL MICHIGAN—W 45-17122626+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13AWEST VIRGINIA—L 24-31553232+42BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27HLOUISVILLE—L 27-34648282-8BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HBOSTON COLLEGE—W 48-7502929+45BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AFLORIDA STATE—W 34-31877070+4BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
8OCT 18ASYRACUSE—W 30-13761616+58BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HNC STATE—W 53-34686060+14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ASTANFORD—W 35-20671818+56BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 15HNOTRE DAME#10L 15-37949797-23BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22AGEORGIA TECH—W 42-28727575-1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HMIAMI#2L 7-38909494-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 27AEAST CAROLINA—L 17-23447373+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB51TAL72PERF51RET26ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 16 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
6
MASON HEINTSCHELQB SONO SNAPS
★3—8869%+13—
10
ELI HOLSTEINQB SERET
★4★37026%+23FELL
9
COLE GONZALESQB SEPORTAL · OKLAHOMA
UNR★3394%—EMERGED
16
DAVID LYNCHQB SORET
UNR—00%-14—
12
BEAU JACKSONQB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾RB49TAL65PERF49RET51ROTATIONn=3 · 9 METRICS · 27 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
25
JA'KYRIAN TURNERRB SONO SNAPS
★3—9240%+8—
22
JUELZ GOFFRB SORET
★3★38227%-17HELD
0
DESMOND REIDRB SERET
★3★37924%+28HELD
5
JUSTIN COOKRB SENO SNAPS
UNR—516%——
30
CALEB WILLIAMSRB SORET
UNR—312%——
35
JALYNN WILLIAMSRB SENO SNAPS
★3—272%——
34
DERRICK DAVIS JR.RB SERET
★4★300%-36HELD
27
JAYLIN BROWNRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
20
SYNKWAN SMITHRB FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL63PERF51RET58ONE OWNERn=10 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
5
RAPHAEL WILLIAMS JR.WR SERET
UNR★39928%+1EMERGED
2
KENNY JOHNSONWR SERET
★3★39826%0HELD
3
CATAURUS HICKSWR JUPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
★3★39321%-2HELD
88
JUSTIN HOLMESTE SEPORTAL · MARSHALL
★3★38649%+17HELD
22
DEUCE SPANNWR SEPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★3★37110%-24HELD
87
JAKE OVERMANTE SERET
★3★36925%-30HELD
12
MALACHI THOMASTE JURET
★3★36723%+41HELD
23
ZION FOWLER-ELWR SORET
★3★3584%-54HELD
4
BRYCE YATESWR SONO SNAPS
★3—574%+35—
10
CENSERE LEEWR SERET
★3—574%-11—
2
TONY KINSLERWR SONO SNAPS
★3—371%——
85
JOSH ALTSMANTE JURET
UNR—343%——
84
CAM SAPPWR FRTRUE FR
★3—201%——
86
MAX HUNTTE FRTRUE FR
★3—91%——
47
CADEN SMITHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
44
ADAM HOWANITZTE JURET
UNR—00%——
29
BENNY HASELRIGWR JURET
UNR—00%——
24
TYREEK ROBINSONWR SORET
★3—00%——
32
TRUITT BROWNTE SORET
UNR—00%——
40
AMAH AGWUWR SORET
UNR—00%——
41
JAKE SASSICWR SORET
UNR—00%——
▸OL47TAL66PERF47RET71n=7 · 3 METRICS · 20 OBS
▸DL68TAL70PERF68RET80n=10 · 8 METRICS · 60 OBS
▸LB66TAL76PERF66RET96n=5 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB58TAL71PERF58RET67n=9 · 6 METRICS · 43 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS16 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MASON ALEXANDERHS RECRUITCB★4UNR
JOSH GUERRIERHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
SYNKWAN SMITHHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
MASON HEINTSCHELHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
TONY KINSLERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
COLE WOODSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JUSTIN THOMPSONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JORDAN FIELDSHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
SHEP TURKHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
BRYCE YATESHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN9 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEUCE SPANNFLORIDA STATEWR★3★3
BLAINE SPIRESUTAH STATEEDGE★2★3
CATAURUS HICKSLOUISVILLEWR★3★3
KAVIR BAINS-MARQUEZUC DAVISS★2★3
ZION FERGUSONNORTH CAROLINACB★4★3
KENDALL STANLEYCHARLOTTEOT★3★3
KEITH GOUVEIARICHMONDIOLUNR★3
RASHAN MURRAYPENNWEST CALIFORNIACB★2★3
JAEDEN MOOREOREGONEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT33 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RYLAND GANDYINDIANADB★3★3
TERRENCE ENOS JR.KANSAS STATEOL★3★3
SINCERE EDWARDSUCFEDGE★3★4
NAHKI JOHNSONTULSADL★4★3
CHIEF BORDERSUNLVLB★4★3
TAMARION CRUMPLEYUABCB★3★3
DAEJON REYNOLDSUNLVWR★4★3
JORDAN BASSVIRGINIA TECHS★4★3
DAVID OJIEGBENORFOLK STATEDE★4★4
RODNEY HAMMOND JR.SACRAMENTO STATERB★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES23%6 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS38%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#51NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 25 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8591COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1526 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST91% BACK91th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG91% BACK91th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR71%71th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR26%26th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE