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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
AMERICAN ATHLETIC|SCOTT ABELL|—RECORD5-8|CONF—
RICE127 FPIAAC · 2025 SEASON
TALENT
23FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
39%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-10IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1000 BC / 22
BC RATIO
0%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
AVG SCORING MARGIN-12.4
5 wins against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE5
PERFORMANCE5
TALENT35
CONTINUITY39
DEFENSE19
PERFORMANCE19
TALENT42
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
50MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
3 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 30ALOUISIANA—W 14-12342323-11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 6HHOUSTON#22L 9-35537171-59BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 13HPRAIRIE VIEW A&M—W 38-17————NON-FBS OPPONENT
4SEP 18ACHARLOTTE—W 28-172211+11BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 27ANAVY#23L 13-2116666-54BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 4HFLORIDA ATLANTIC—L 21-27412828-16BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 11AUTSA—L 13-61535555-43BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 25HUCONN—W 37-34306161-49BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10OCT 31HMEMPHIS—L 14-38587272-60BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HUAB—W 24-172688+4BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 22HNORTH TEXAS#24L 24-56318484-72BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29ASOUTH FLORIDA—L 3-52567979-67BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLJAN 2ATEXAS STATE—L 10-41455353-41BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB55TAL42PERF56RET86ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
CHASE JENKINSQB JURET
★3★37476%+36HELD
18
DREW DEVILLIERQB JURET
★3★34210%-49HELD
15
PATRICK CRAYTON JR.QB FRTRUE FR
★3—347%——
2
LUCAS SCHEERHORNQB SOPORTAL · KENNESAW STATE
UNR★3326%—EMERGED
12
AJ PADGETTQB JURET
★3—00%-14—
▾RB50TAL33PERF50RET49ONE OWNERn=4 · 4 METRICS · 15 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
QUINTON JACKSONRB SERET
★3—8549%+17—
28
D'ANDRE HARDEMAN JR.RB SONO SNAPS
★3—6722%+38—
26
DAELEN ALEXANDERRB JURET
★3★36218%+23HELD
26
TYVONN BYARSRB SONO SNAPS
★3—519%+29—
30
CARSON MORGANRB JUPORTAL · KANSAS
UNR★2161%—EMERGED
9
RYAN BUTLERRB SEPORTAL · STANFORD
UNR—00%-41—
34
TREI KIBBLESRB FRRET
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE54TAL40PERF56RET70ONE OWNERn=6 · 7 METRICS · 22 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
49
MICAH BARNETTTE SERET
UNR—9968%-36—
86
JAMES FALKTE JURET
★3—8030%——
1
AARON TURNERWR SENO SNAPS
★3★37728%+17HELD
18
DRAYDEN DICKMANNWR JURET
★3★37526%-20HELD
0
PAYTON MATTHEWSWR SONO SNAPS
★3—6011%-23—
17
LANDON RANSOM-GOELZWR SORET
★3★3548%+1HELD
29
SEMAJ PIERREWR FRTRUE FR
★3★3516%—HELD
11
TYSON THOMPSONWR SERET
UNR—496%-25—
22
RYAN GUILLOWR JURET
UNR—445%——
81
BRAYLEN WALKERWR SERET
★2★2383%+8HELD
7
ARTIS COLEWR SEPORTAL · UL MONROE
UNR★2322%-17EMERGED
12
ALEX SCHERLETE SERET
UNR★3312%—EMERGED
88
KEENAN ARCEGA-WHITESIDEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—292%——
80
DAVID KASEMERVISZWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—282%——
13
CHRISTIAN EDGARWR JURET
UNR—151%——
43
CHRIS BRUCEWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
JORDAN CLARKWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
3
MAX BALTHAZARWR SEPORTAL · COASTAL CAROLINA
★3★300%-64HELD
18
OWEN CARTERWR SORET
★3—00%——
25
RHYS PHILLIPSTE SORET
★3—00%——
24
LARRY DEBOSE IVWR SORET
UNR—00%——
83
JACKSON RANUCCIWR SORET
UNR—00%——
84
WILL SWARTZTE FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
32
COLIN LEAHEYWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
▸OL38TAL27PERF38RET39n=9 · 3 METRICS · 14 OBS
▸DL36TAL37PERF36RET46n=11 · 7 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸LB54TAL45PERF54RET98n=6 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB33TAL46PERF33RET43n=9 · 6 METRICS · 50 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS20 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
COLTER ALBERDINGHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
TYVONN BYARSHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
BRADEN BAYSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
KEENAN ARCEGA-WHITESIDEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
TY THAMESHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
COLIN LEAHEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
AHRAN OGBORHS RECRUITATH★3UNR
DEREYON JENKINSHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
CJ WITTENHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
WILL SWARTZHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MATTHEW ARIBISALASAM HOUSTONDL★3★3
MAX BALTHAZARCOASTAL CAROLINARB★3★3
JACK KANEOREGON STATESUNR★3
SEAN SULLIVANYALEIOLUNR★3
VJ BRONSONNORTH TEXASDLUNR★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT37 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
CHAD LINDBERGNORTH CAROLINAOL★4★3
ETHAN ONIANWAOHIO STATEOT★3★4
TYSON FLOWERSVIRGINIA TECHS★3★3
E.J. WARNERFRESNO STATEQB★3★3
DEAN CONNORSHOUSTONRBUNR★3
JONATHAN JEANEAST CAROLINADB★3UNR
BODEN GROENKANSASTEUNR★3
THAI CHIAOKHIAO-BOWMANUCONNWR★3★3
AJ STEPHENSSOUTHERNDB★3★3
JALEN HARGROVEUCLADL★2UNR
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES80%8 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS83%11 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#100NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 22 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8398COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
1121 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
26TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
0
5
9
7
5
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-3 TO +9 W
IMPROVED12 OF 26
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST55% BACK55th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG55% BACK55th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR39%39th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR86%86th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST43%43th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE