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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
CONFERENCE USA|K.C. KEELER|—RECORD10-3|CONF—
SAM HOUSTON98 FPICUSA · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
18FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
66%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
72%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
+7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#1240 BC / 11
BC RATIO
4%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.2
9 wins against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE7
PERFORMANCE7
TALENT48
CONTINUITY66
DEFENSE32
PERFORMANCE32
TALENT38
CONTINUITY72
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
30MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31ARICE—W 34-14281919+8BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 7AUCF—L 14-45775555-28BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14HHAWAI'I—W 31-13222020+7BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
4SEP 21HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 31-11777+20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28HTEXAS STATE—W 40-39286565-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 3AUTEP—W 41-211233+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 16HWESTERN KENTUCKY—L 14-31234242-15BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 22AFLORIDA INTERNATIONAL—W 10-7201717+10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10OCT 29HLOUISIANA TECH—W 9-3261818+9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AKENNESAW STATE—W 23-17522+25BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AJACKSONVILLE STATE—L 11-2184545-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14NOV 29HLIBERTY—W 20-18374747-20BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 19HGEORGIA SOUTHERN—W 31-26244444-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB34TAL30PERF34RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
10
HUNTER WATSONQB SENO SNAPS
UNR★28081%+8EMERGED
8
JASE BAUERQB SEPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
★3★35919%-25HELD
5
GRANT GUNNELLQB SERET
★3★300%+26HELD
13
SYLAS GOMEZQB SORET
UNR—00%——
15
DJ BAILEYQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB36TAL56PERF36RET15ONE OWNERn=3 · 5 METRICS · 13 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
20
JAY DUCKERRB SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
★3★38852%+1HELD
4
D.J. MCKINNEYRB JURET
★3—7833%+3—
1
JOHN GENTRYRB SERET
★3★35510%+15HELD
27
ZACH HRBACEKRB SERET
UNR—364%-32—
27
GARRET HAGLERRB SORET
UNR—00%——
34
LANDAN BROWNRB SERET
★3—00%——
41
TREY TAYLORRB JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾WR/TE38TAL44PERF45RET66ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 45 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
19
ELIJAH SOHNTE SERET
UNR—9660%+27—
89
FERNANDO GARZA IIITE SEPORTAL · TEXAS A&M
★3★38337%-47HELD
2
IFE ADEYIWR SERET
★3—8223%-32—
3
SIMEON EVANSWR SERET
★3★38122%+29HELD
6
NOAH SMITHWR SERET
★3—7719%+16—
7
QUA'VEZ HUMPHREYSWR SERET
UNR—7316%+30—
4
MICHAEL PHOENIX IIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR★36611%+11EMERGED
13
JYZIAH ROCKWELLWR SERET
★3★3484%-53HELD
5
LONNIE ADKISMWR SORET
★3★3362%—HELD
11
MALIK PHILLIPSWR SERET
UNR—312%-17—
12
AUSTIN SMITHTE SEPORTAL · MEMPHIS
★3★3292%—HELD
15
SHANE JOHNSONWR JURET
UNR—271%-42—
18
FATU MUKUBAWR SONO SNAPS
★3★3181%—HELD
86
THOMAS JEWETTTE JURET
★3—70%——
48
BRAEDEN HOWELLTE JURET
UNR—00%——
82
COOPER STEVENSTE JUNO SNAPS
★3—00%——
81
MARCUS FIELDWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
84
KADEN TAYLORWR SONO SNAPS
★2—00%——
87
RUSHIL PATELWR FRRET
UNR—00%——
85
KARSON MAYNARDWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
83
MATTHEW TATUMWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
0
DARRICK BLEDSOE IIIWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
88
TERRENCE GUILLORY IIWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL53TAL54PERF53RET80n=7 · 3 METRICS · 21 OBS
▸DL38TAL35PERF38RET68n=10 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB38TAL38PERF38RET95n=6 · 11 METRICS · 46 OBS
▸DB51TAL40PERF51RET62n=7 · 8 METRICS · 40 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DRAVON WILSONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
FATU MUKUBAHS RECRUITS★3UNR
RAILYN ADAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
KARSON MAYNARDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
COOPER STEVENSHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
MARCUS FIELDHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
DEAN FORDHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
JOSIAH STEPHENSHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DJ BAILEYHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
MITCH MELTONHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN12 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JASE BAUERCENTRAL MICHIGANQB★3★3
FERNANDO GARZA IIITEXAS A&MTE★3★3
JAYLON JIMMERSONLIBERTYSUNR★3
DYLAN FRAZIERSMUDL★3★3
AUSTIN SMITHMEMPHISTE★3★3
MARCUS MOORENORTH TEXASDL★3★3
QUINCY WRIGHTOREGON STATEDL★3★3
JOE SWENOREGON STATES★3★3
CHATAVIES JOHNSONMEMPHISLBUNR★3
JAY DUCKERMEMPHISRB★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT26 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DA'MARCUS CROSBY IINEW MEXICO STATEDBUNR★3
DAKERRIC HOBBSNEW MEXICO STATECBUNR★3
JORDAN YATESTENNESSEE TECHQB★3UNR
TREVOR WILLIAMSELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
AKEEM SMITHELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
MARKEL PERRYELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
KEEGAN SHOEMAKERELIGIBILITY UPQBUNR—
CHRIS SCOTTELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
ISAIAH DOWNESELIGIBILITY UPDBUNR—
AL'VONTE WOODARDELIGIBILITY UPWR★4—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES43%7 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS20%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#124NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 11 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8229COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
125 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENTBOTTOM QUARTILERETURNING40–60%QUARTERBACKNEW
34TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
7
6
6
9
6
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-2.0 TO +1.8 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED15 OF 34
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST48% BACK48th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG48% BACK48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR80%80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST62%62th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE