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HOME›TEAMS›SAN DIEGO STATE›2021TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2021 FINAL
PAC-12|BRADY HOKE|—RECORD11-2|CONF—
SAN DIEGO STATE#25 AP 71 FPIPAC · 2021 SEASON
TALENT
31FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
—SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-7IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#621 BC / 26
BC RATIO
3%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2021 · FULL SEASON
RECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD6-0
AVG SCORING MARGIN+7.1
11 wins against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
DEFENSE—
PERFORMANCE0
TALENT0
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
40MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 4HNEW MEXICO STATE—W 28-10622+60BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 11AARIZONA—W 38-14511414+48BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 18HUTAH#12W 33-31788888-26BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 25HTOWSON—W 48-21————NON-FBS OPPONENT
6OCT 9HNEW MEXICO—W 31-71988+54BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 15ASAN JOSÉ STATE—W 19-13263535+27BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 23AAIR FORCE—W 20-1415959+3BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 30HFRESNO STATE—L 20-30417676-14BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 6AHAWAI'I—W 17-10243434+28BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 13HNEVADA—W 23-21294949+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
12NOV 19AUNLV—W 28-20221212+50BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HBOISE STATE—W 27-16506969-7BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
14DEC 4HUTAH STATE#24L 13-46233939+23BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB—TAL0PERF0RET48NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
14
WILLIAM HASKELLQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
4
JORDON BROOKSHIREQB SERET
★2—00%——
18
JALEN MAYDENQB SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★400%—HELD
7
LUCAS JOHNSONQB SERET
★3—00%——
17
BAYLOR HORNINGQB SERET
UNR—00%——
17
MARSHALL EUCKERQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB—TAL0PERF0RET98NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
JORDAN BYRDRB SERET
★3—00%——
2
JAYLON ARMSTEADRB SERET
★3★300%—HELD
22
GREG BELLRB SERET
★2—00%——
21
CHANCE BELLRB SERET
★3—00%——
7
KAEGUN WILLIAMSRB SERET
★3—00%——
30
LUCKY AVINGERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
37
CLIFFTON STYLESFB SORET
UNR—00%——
35
LEKA LOTULELEIRB JURET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
96
ELIJAH KOTHEWR SERET
★2—00%——
88
KOBY DURUWR SERET
★2—00%——
45
JESSE MATTHEWSWR SERET
UNR—00%——
14
TYRELL SHAVERSWR SEPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
★4★300%—FELL
81
ETHAN DEDEAUXWR SERET
★3—00%——
10
BRIONNE PENNYWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
23
BJ BUSBEEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
80
TJ SULLIVANWR SERET
★2—00%——
88
DANIEL BELLINGERTE JURET
★2—00%——
1
KOBE SMITHWR SERET
★3—00%——
13
ISAIAH RICHARDSONWR SERET
★3—00%——
82
JAY RUDOLPHTE SERET
★3★300%—HELD
94
AARON GREENETE SORET
★2★200%—HELD
83
MEKHI SHAWWR SERET
UNR—00%——
84
DARIUS DE LOS REYESWR JURET
★3—00%——
32
CONNOR MCBRIDETE SERET
UNR—00%——
86
RONALD GILLIAMWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
16
CASSIUS SAVAGEWR SORET
★3★300%—HELD
47
RORY MORGANTE SERET
UNR—00%——
89
KYLER ALBANEZTE SERET
UNR—00%——
▸OL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DL—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸LB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
▸DB—TAL0PERF0RET0NOT GRADED · TOO LITTLE MEASURED PLAY
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS24 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH SIMMONSHS RECRUITIOL★4UNR
NOAH AVINGERHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ROSS ULUGALU-MASEULIHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
CJ BASKERVILLEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ZYRUS FIASEUHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
WILLIAM HASKELLHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
PHILLIPPE WESLEYHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
NEW ZEALAND WILLIAMSHS RECRUITS★3UNR
ILAISA GONEBUREHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
DJ HERMANHS RECRUITLB★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN1 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
TYRELL SHAVERSMISSISSIPPI STATEWR★4★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT9 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
NOLAN GIVANSE LOUISIANATE★3★3
CARSON BAKERWESTERN KENTUCKYQB★3UNR
DARREN HALLNFL DRAFT R4CB★3—
DOMINIC BENSONELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
CHASE JASMINELIGIBILITY UPRB★3—
DWAYNE JOHNSON JR.ELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
TARIQ THOMPSONELIGIBILITY UPS★3—
TANNER KULJIANELIGIBILITY UPPUNR—
UBALDO NOLASCONOT LISTEDDLUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#62NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 26 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8343COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
29 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKNEW
18TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
4
1
3
6
4
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.8 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-5 TO +7 W
IMPROVED10 OF 18
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST80% BACK80th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG80% BACK80th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR—2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR48%48th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST—2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE