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HOME›TEAMS›SAN DIEGO STATE›2023TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2023 FINAL
PAC-12|BRADY HOKE|—RECORD4-8|CONF—
SAN DIEGO STATE109 FPIPAC · 2023 SEASON
TALENT
26FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
79%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
69%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-8IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#780 BC / 14
BC RATIO
6%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
4-8ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
AVG SCORING MARGIN-6.3
4 wins against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE20
PERFORMANCE20
TALENT65
CONTINUITY79
DEFENSE11
PERFORMANCE11
TALENT48
CONTINUITY69
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
45MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
0 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 26HOHIO—W 20-13124747-25BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
1SEP 2HIDAHO STATE—W 36-28————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 9HUCLA—L 10-35828080-58BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
3SEP 16AOREGON STATE—L 9-26618686-64BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 22HBOISE STATE—L 31-34486767-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 30AAIR FORCE—L 10-4916767-45BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14AHAWAI'I—W 41-342088+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 21HNEVADA—L 0-62811+21BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 4HUTAH STATE—L 24-32252020+2BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
11NOV 11ACOLORADO STATE—L 19-22222727-5BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 18ASAN JOSÉ STATE—L 13-24384242-20BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
13NOV 25HFRESNO STATE—W 33-18445555-33BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB58TAL85PERF58RET99ONE OWNERn=1 · 8 METRICS · 8 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
JALEN MAYDENQB SERET
★4★48699%+6HELD
10
TOBIN O'DELLQB FRRET
UNR—101%——
4
LIU AUMAVAEQB FRRET
★3★200%—FELL
12
KYLE CRUMQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
8
JAVANCE TUPOU'ATA-JOHNSONQB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
17
DJ RALPHQB SORET
★3—00%——
▾RB53TAL63PERF53RET99ROTATIONn=5 · 9 METRICS · 25 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
KENAN CHRISTON IIRB SERET
★4—8939%+17—
2
JAYLON ARMSTEADRB SERET
★3★37221%+9HELD
29
CAM DAVISRB JURET
★3★37019%-44HELD
13
MARTIN BLAKERB SORET
UNR—6314%+31—
7
LUCKY SUTTONRB SERET
★3—476%+4—
44
LEO KEMPFB SENO SNAPS
UNR—201%——
26
NICK GARDINERARB SORET
UNR—00%——
20
SHELDON CANLEY IIRB FRRET
★3★300%—HELD
30
LUCKY AVINGERRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE42TAL55PERF41RET91ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 44 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
83
MARK REDMANTE SERET
★4★410064%-29HELD
83
MEKHI SHAWWR SERET
UNR—7625%+2—
9
CAMERON HARPOLETE SERET
★3★37423%-8HELD
10
BRIONNE PENNYWR SERET
★3★37121%-5HELD
85
JOSHUA NICHOLSONWR SORET
★3★37121%-50HELD
7
BAYLIN BROOKSWR JUNO SNAPS
★3★36919%+12HELD
14
PHILLIPPE WESLEYWR SERET
★3★36213%-21HELD
82
JAY RUDOLPHTE SERET
★3★35810%-36HELD
19
LOGAN TANNERTE SORET
★3★3332%—HELD
84
DARIUS DE LOS REYESWR JURET
★3—151%——
2
JORDAN NAPIERWR JUNO SNAPS
★3—151%——
14
MIKEY WELSHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
88
DEZ MELTONTE SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
5
RAPHAEL WILLIAMS JR.WR SENO SNAPS
UNR★300%—EMERGED
17
TYSON BERRYWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
88
DARIUS HYDEWR SERET
UNR—00%——
42
PIERCE BROWNWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
43
DEREK SMITHWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
45
NINO REMIGIOWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
48
HUDSON MITCHELLTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
41
MAX DIFILIPPOTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL56TAL74PERF56RET62n=7 · 3 METRICS · 19 OBS
▸DL12TAL18PERF12RET58n=11 · 8 METRICS · 47 OBS
▸LB21TAL64PERF21RET81n=6 · 11 METRICS · 43 OBS
▸DB32TAL58PERF32RET76n=11 · 8 METRICS · 56 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS14 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JAVANCE TUPOU'ATA-JOHNSONHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
JORDAN NAPIERHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
BRADY NASSARHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
MARCUS RATCLIFFEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
JONAH RODRIGUEZHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
CALEB OTLEWSKIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
BAYLIN BROOKSHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
SINN BRENNANHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
RYAN SILVERHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
JELANI MCLAUGHLINHS RECRUITS★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN5 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JALIL TUCKEROREGONCB★4★3
RAPHAEL WILLIAMSWESTERN CAROLINAWRUNR★3
TAYVION BEASLEYCOLORADOCB★3★3
JD COFFEYTEXASSUNR★4
SAMUELA TUIHALAMAKAOKLAHOMA STATEDL★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT23 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JOSH SIMMONSOHIO STATEOL★4★4
PATRICK MCMORRISCALIFORNIADB★2★4
C.J. BASKERVILLETEXAS TECHDB★3UNR
GUS MCGEECHARLOTTETE★3★3
ISAIAH MCELVANELOUISIANA TECHDB★3★3
ALAMA ULUAVEELIGIBILITY UPOL★3—
JONAH TAVAIELIGIBILITY UPDLUNR—
CADEN MCDONALDELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
KESHAWN BANKSELIGIBILITY UPDL★3—
MICHAEL SHAWCROFTELIGIBILITY UPLB★3—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES42%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS54%6 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#78NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 14 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8469COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
513 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
119TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
16
38
33
21
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +9 W
IMPROVED54 OF 119
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST61% BACK61th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG61% BACK61th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR62%62th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR99%99th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST76%76th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE