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HOME›TEAMS›SAN DIEGO STATE›2024TWO METERS, NEVER RAW SNAPS
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F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2024 FINAL
PAC-12|SEAN LEWIS|—RECORD3-9|CONF—
SAN DIEGO STATE121 FPIPAC · 2024 SEASON
TALENT
45FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
33%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
57%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
-12IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#720 BC / 17
BC RATIO
9%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2024 · FULL SEASON
RECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs3.8-8.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN-8.3
3 wins against a scoring profile describing 3.8. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE14
PERFORMANCE14
TALENT47
CONTINUITY33
DEFENSE16
PERFORMANCE16
TALENT49
CONTINUITY57
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE12 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
35MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1AUG 31HEAST TEXAS A&M—W 45-14————NON-FBS OPPONENT
2SEP 7HOREGON STATE—L 0-21472828-17BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
3SEP 14ACALIFORNIA—L 10-31665959-48BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
5SEP 28ACENTRAL MICHIGAN—L 21-221511110BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5HHAWAI'I—W 27-24222020-9BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
7OCT 12AWYOMING—W 27-24121414-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
9OCT 26HWASHINGTON STATE—L 26-29464949-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
10NOV 1ABOISE STATE#8L 24-56457979-68BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 8HNEW MEXICO—L 16-21151414-3BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 16AUNLV#23L 20-41397474-63BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 23AUTAH STATE—L 20-41292121-10BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
14NOV 30HAIR FORCE—L 20-3111717-6BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB39TAL65PERF39RET0ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
18
DANNY O'NEILQB JUNO SNAPS
★3★38788%+16HELD
8
JAVANCE TUPOU'ATA-JOHNSONQB SORET
★3★35012%-47HELD
10
AJ DUFFYQB JUPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
★4★400%—HELD
12
KYLE CRUMQB JURET
★3★300%—HELD
10
PARKER THREATTQB SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
▾RB46TAL74PERF46RET11ONE OWNERn=1 · 9 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
15
MARQUEZ COOPERRB SEPORTAL · BALL STATE
★3★39989%+3HELD
29
CAM DAVISRB JURET
★3★3446%-42HELD
2
JAYLON ARMSTEADRB SERET
★3★3354%+4HELD
7
LUCKY SUTTONRB SERET
★3—141%+9—
8
KENAN CHRISTON IIRB SERET
★4—00%+17—
23
CINCERE RHANEYRB SONO SNAPS
★3★300%—HELD
26
NICK GARDINERARB SORET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE44TAL57PERF46RET25ONE OWNERn=7 · 8 METRICS · 51 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
4
LOUIS BROWN IVWR SEPORTAL · COLORADO STATE
★3★38824%-5HELD
11
NATE BENNETTWR SEPORTAL · PORTLAND STATE
★3★38320%+23HELD
18
JUDE WOLFETE SEPORTAL · USC
★4★38252%-25FELL
87
MICHAEL HARRISONTE SEPORTAL · COLORADO
UNR★37945%-14EMERGED
3
JA'SHAUN POKEWR SEPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA
★3★37918%+21HELD
83
MEKHI SHAWWR SERET
UNR—7717%-15—
2
JORDAN NAPIERWR JURET
★3—7616%+26—
7
BAYLIN BROOKSWR JURET
★3★3493%+12HELD
86
ARTHUR BANTE JUNO SNAPS
★3★3192%—HELD
88
GABE GARRETSONTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—171%——
2
JERRY MCCLUREWR JUPORTAL · UCLA
★4★3130%—FELL
14
PHILLIPPE WESLEYWR SERET
★3★300%-21HELD
14
MIKEY WELSHWR JURET
UNR—00%——
19
LOGAN TANNERTE SORET
★3★300%—HELD
21
HEATH MCREEWR FRTRUE FR
★3—00%——
17
WILL CIANFRINIWR SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
84
BEN SCOLARIWR FRTRUE FR
★3★300%—HELD
43
DEREK SMITHWR FRRET
★3—00%——
88
RYAN WOLFERTE SONO SNAPS
★3—00%——
38
KURT ROSSNERWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
82
BOBBY SHAWWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
▸OL38TAL28PERF38RET30n=5 · 3 METRICS · 14 OBS
▸DL49TAL36PERF49RET50n=11 · 8 METRICS · 59 OBS
▸LB35TAL50PERF35RET56n=6 · 10 METRICS · 40 OBS
▸DB43TAL55PERF43RET56n=9 · 8 METRICS · 55 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS11 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
JASON MITCHELLHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DANNY O'NEILHS RECRUITQB★3UNR
ISAIAH BUXTONHS RECRUITS★3UNR
CINCERE RHANEYHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
ANTHONY MCMILLIANHS RECRUITRB★3UNR
WILL CIANFRINIHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
HEATH MCREEHS RECRUITWR★3UNR
KAI HOLECHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
PRINCE WILLIAMSHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
ARTHUR BANHS RECRUITTE★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN14 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
MICHAEL HARRISONCOLORADOTEUNR★3
MARQUEZ COOPERBALL STATERB★3★3
AJ DUFFYFLORIDA STATEQB★4★3
JUDE WOLFEUSCTE★4★3
JERRY MCCLUREUCLAWR★4★3
BRYCE PHILLIPSTENNESSEE STATECB★3★3
NATE BENNETTPORTLAND STATEWR★3★3
KYLE MORETTICENTRAL MICHIGANLB★3★3
MARLEM LOUISRICHMONDEDGEUNR★3
EZEKIEL LARRYYALEEDGE★3★3
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT32 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
DEZ MALONEOKLAHOMADB★3★3
BRANDON CRENSHAW-DICKSONFLORIDAOL★3★3
MARCUS RATCLIFFETEXAS A&MS★3★4
COOPER MCDONALDTCULB★3★3
ZYRUS FIASEUARIZONA STATELB★3★3
MARK REDMANLOUISVILLETE★4★4
DREW AZZOPARDIWASHINGTONOL★3★4
CAMERON HARPOLEARIZONA STATETE★3★3
DAVAUGHN CELESTINESMUSUNRUNR
BRIONNE PENNYJAMES MADISONWR★3★3
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CARRIES37%5 DEPARTED BALL-CARRIERS
TARGETS49%8 DEPARTED PASS-CATCHERS
CLASS RANK
#72NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
0OF 17 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8488COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
2436 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT3RD QUARTILERETURNINGUNDER 40%QUARTERBACKNEW
63TEAMS
MATCHED THIS-1.0MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
11
14
23
8
7
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-3.0 TO +0.0 W
FULL RANGE-7 TO +5 W
IMPROVED15 OF 63
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTNO2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST41% BACK41th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG41% BACK41th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR30%30th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST56%56th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE