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SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
SEASON
20262025202420232022
PROVENANCE
RET — RETURNING
LAST YR ≈
PORTAL
UNR — UNRATED
SEASONRECORD & ROSTER
VINTAGE2022 FINAL
ACC|RHETT LASHLEE|—RECORD7-6|CONF—
SMU62 FPIACC · 2022 SEASON
TALENT
55FBS PCTL
RET · OFFENSE
12%SNAPS BACK
RET · DEFENSE
0%SNAPS BACK
PORTAL NET
0IN MINUS OUT
CLASS
#821 BC / 13
BC RATIO
12%UNDER
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
RECORD MATCHES SCORING
7-5ACTUALvs6.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
AVG SCORING MARGIN+3.8
7 wins against a scoring profile describing 6.7. Both are facts about the same season; which one a market has priced is the reader's question.
UNIT GRADESPARTS KEPT SEPARATE
OFFENSE74
PERFORMANCE74
TALENT67
CONTINUITY12
DEFENSE36
PERFORMANCE36
TALENT39
CONTINUITY0
SCHEDULE AS EVIDENCE13 PLAYED · 0 REMAINING · OPPONENT QUALITY AS FBS PERCENTILES
BEATEN OPPONENT QUALITY
57MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
REMAINING OPPONENT QUALITY
—MEAN COMPOSITE PCTL
QUALITY SWING
—REMAINING vs BEATEN
RANKED OPPONENTS
2 / 0PLAYED / REMAINING
WK
DATE
H/A
OPPONENT
RK
RESULT
TAL
PERF
COMP
EDGE
READING
1SEP 3ANORTH TEXAS—W 48-10454444+14BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
2SEP 10HLAMAR—W 45-16————NON-FBS OPPONENT
3SEP 17AMARYLAND—L 27-34737676-18BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
4SEP 24HTCU#2L 34-42779696-38BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
6OCT 5AUCF—L 19-41627373-15BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
7OCT 14HNAVY—W 40-3402929+29BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
8OCT 22HCINCINNATI—L 27-29658282-24BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
9OCT 29ATULSA—W 45-34403434+24BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
10NOV 5HHOUSTON—W 77-63585757+1BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
11NOV 12ASOUTH FLORIDA—W 41-235199+49BEAT A BOTTOM-HALF SIDE
12NOV 17ATULANE#9L 24-59477979-21BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
13NOV 26HMEMPHIS—W 34-31476363-5BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
BWLDEC 17ABYU—L 23-24234545+13BEAT A TOP-HALF SIDE
TAL / PERF / COMP DESCRIBE THE OPPONENT — A HIGH NUMBER IS A HARDER GAME, NOT A BETTER ONEEDGE IS THIS TEAM MINUS THE OPPONENT AND READS HIGH-IS-GOOD
POSITION ROOMS BY USAGE SHAREEXPAND ALL
▾QB54TAL90PERF54RET96ONE OWNERn=2 · 8 METRICS · 9 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
8
TANNER MORDECAIQB SERET
★4★49486%+30HELD
8
PRESTON STONEQB SERET
★4★3469%+1FELL
7
KEVIN JENNINGSQB JUNO SNAPS
★3—334%——
26
OWEN EASLEYQB SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
14
CHARLIE FISERQB JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▾RB50TAL41PERF50RET55ROTATIONn=5 · 5 METRICS · 24 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
31
TYLER LAVINERB SERET
★2—8736%+24—
24
VELTON GARDNERRB SENO SNAPS
★3—6918%-23—
4
TRE SIGGERSRB SERET
★3★36918%+3HELD
CAMAR WHEATONRB JUNO SNAPS
★4—6314%+3—
25
TJ MCDANIELRB SORET
★3★36213%+4HELD
3
BRANDON EPTON JR.RB SERET
★3—191%-51—
26
MONTAYE DAWSONRB FRRET
★3—00%——
26
ZANE MINORSRB SERET
UNR—00%——
▾WR/TE58TAL61PERF64RET67ONE OWNERn=9 · 7 METRICS · 56 OBS
#
PLAYER
★HS
★PT
USAGE PCTL
ROOM SHARE
vsCOH
TRAJ
11
RASHEE RICEWR SERET
★3—9829%+36—
82
RJ MARYLANDTE SENO SNAPS
★4—8749%+12—
1
JORDAN KERLEYWR SERET
★3★38117%+26HELD
6
AUSTIN UPSHAWWR SERET
★3—7414%-40—
81
BEN REDDINGTE SERET
UNR—7332%+4—
13
RODERICK DANIELS JR.WR SERET
★3—7112%-14—
5
MOOCHIE DIXONWR SENO SNAPS
★4—669%+29—
18
DYLAN GOFFNEYWR SERET
★3★3659%+32HELD
12
JAKE BAILEYWR SENO SNAPS
★3—586%+26—
89
GAGE HASKINTE JURET
UNR—5112%——
3
BEAU CORRALESWR SENO SNAPS
★3★3463%+7HELD
14
NOLAN MATTHEWS-HARRISTE JURET
★3★3406%—HELD
15
CALVIN WIGGINSWR JURET
★3★3311%—HELD
89
KAM ALLENTE SONO SNAPS
★3—171%——
30
CARTER CAMPBELLWR SERET
UNR—170%——
9
BEAU BARKERWR JURET
UNR—100%——
18
TEDDY KNOXWR SONO SNAPS
★4★400%—HELD
44
SAM MORSETE FRRET
UNR—00%——
29
DAYLON DICKERSONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
42
WILL KUEHNEWR SENO SNAPS
★3—00%——
83
SIMON GONZALEZTE JURET
★3★300%—HELD
44
STONE EBYTE SERET
★3—00%——
4
JAYLEEN RECORDWR SERET
★3★300%—HELD
84
ALEX QUIRKTE JURET
UNR—00%——
33
HUDSON SHRUMWR SERET
UNR—00%——
47
NIC HECKWR SENO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
32
JOEY BRUSZERWR SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
34
PARKER CHAPPELLWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
35
MATT HASONWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
39
KEATON CHEVESWR JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
43
CONNER MOOREWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
45
SAM CASPINOTE FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
46
MARKUS SCHUMACHERTE SONO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
85
THOMAS SOUTHEYWR FRTRUE FR
UNR—00%——
86
DAVIS HAWKINSTE JUNO SNAPS
UNR—00%——
▸OL71TAL72PERF71RET0n=6 · 3 METRICS · 18 OBS
▸DL54TAL34PERF54RET73n=11 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
▸LB45TAL50PERF45RET70n=7 · 11 METRICS · 39 OBS
▸DB53TAL38PERF53RET67n=11 · 8 METRICS · 53 OBS
ROSTER MOVEMENTNET PORTAL QUALITY +2 BLUE CHIP
RECRUITS13 SIGNEES
PLAYER
CLASS
ROOM
★HS
★PT
RJ MARYLANDHS RECRUITTE★4UNR
PIERRE GOREEHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DYLAN FRAZIERHS RECRUITDL★3UNR
ISAIAH SMITHHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
AJ DAVISHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
AHMAAD MOSESHS RECRUITS★3UNR
DRENON FITE IIIHS RECRUITEDGE★3UNR
JAYDEN LAWTONHS RECRUITCB★3UNR
JACOB WALLERHS RECRUITOT★3UNR
RHETT LARSONHS RECRUITIOL★3UNR
HIGH SCHOOL SIGNEES — A PEDIGREE AND NO COLLEGE SNAP BEHIND IT
PORTAL IN0 ARRIVALS
PLAYER
FROM
ROOM
★HS
★PT
EVERY ARRIVAL'S PARTICIPATION WAS EARNED AT THE SCHOOL NAMED, NOT HERE
OUT19 DEPARTURES
PLAYER
TO
ROOM
★HS
★PT
BRIAN HOLLOWAYTEXAS STATELBUNRUNR
ULYSSES BENTLEY IVOLE MISSRB★3UNR
TOBY NDUKWESAM HOUSTONDL★3UNR
BLAKE BEDWELLTEXAS TECHRBUNRUNR
WILL JONESELIGIBILITY UPDT★2—
HARRISON LOVELESSELIGIBILITY UPDT★3—
TOMMY MCINTYREELIGIBILITY UPTEUNR—
RICHARD MOOREELIGIBILITY UPLBUNR—
GRANT CALCATERRAELIGIBILITY UPTE★4—
REGGIE ROBERSON JR.ELIGIBILITY UPWRUNR—
EACH ROW CARRIES THE DOOR HE LEFT BY · DRAFT AND PORTAL ARE RECORDED FACTS · ELIGIBILITY IS AN INFERENCE FROM A SENIOR WITH NO OTHER TRACE
VACATED OPPORTUNITYUNCLAIMED SHARE BY ROOM
CLASS RANK
#82NATIONAL
BLUE CHIPS
1OF 13 SIGNEES
MEAN RATING
0.8533COMPOSITE
PORTAL ADDS
00 OUT
COMPARABLE TEAM OUTCOMESMATCHED TEAM SEASONS
TALENT2ND QUARTILERETURNING60% OR MOREQUARTERBACKRETURNS
134TEAMS
MATCHED THIS+0.5MEDIAN NEXT-SEASON
WIN CHANGE
13
19
35
37
30
−4 OR WORSE−3 TO −2−1 TO 0+1 TO +2+3 OR MORE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE-1.0 TO +2.0 W
FULL RANGE-9 TO +6 W
IMPROVED67 OF 134
A LOOKUP OF EVERY MATCHED TEAM SEASON · THE SPREAD IS AS MUCH OF THE FACT AS THE MEDIAN
HISTORICAL OUTCOMESMEASURED 2017-2025 · VALIDATED RELATIONSHIPS ONLY, WITH FAILURES MARKED
STATUS
PRESEASON FACT
HISTORICAL CONSEQUENCE
HOW STRONG
THIS TEAM
SEASONS
VALIDATEDQB CAREER STARTSAn experienced incoming starter went with a stronger finishing ratingMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → PASSINGReturning the starting quarterback preceded a better passing gameMODESTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDQB RETURNS → WINSReturning the starting quarterback went with more wins, not just better passingSLIGHTYES2017-2025
VALIDATEDRETURNING PRODUCTIONTeams that returned more of their production won more games the next seasonMODEST74% BACK74th PCTL2017-2025
VALIDATEDQUALITY OF WHAT RETURNSTeams whose returning players had been better finished the season strongerREPLACES how much production returned (r=+0.12)STRONG74% BACK74th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR OFFENSIVE LINE GRADEA better offensive line room went with a better offence the next seasonREPLACES how much of the offensive line returned (r=+0.06)CLEAR0%0th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR QUARTERBACK GRADEA better quarterback room went with a better passing game the next seasonREPLACES whether the quarterback returned (r=+0.14)CLEAR96%96th PCTL2023-2025
VALIDATEDPRIOR SECONDARY GRADEA better secondary went with fewer points allowed per play the next seasonREPLACES how much of the secondary returned (r=-0.06)MODEST67%67th PCTL2023-2025
EVERY ROW HERE SURVIVED PRE-REGISTERED VALIDATION · RELATIONSHIPS THAT WERE CHECKED AND FOUND NOTHING ARE MEASURED AND STORED BUT NOT DRAWN · “THIS TEAM” IS ITS OWN FIGURE FOR THE FACT
PARTICIPATION IS ALWAYS THE TWO METERS — NATIONAL USAGE PERCENTILE AND SHARE OF THE ROOM · RAW SNAP AND VENDOR TRACKING COUNTS ARE NEVER SHOWN · EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH IS GOOD
UNR MEANS UNRATED OUT OF HIGH SCHOOL · A DASH MEANS ABSENT WITH ITS REASON IN THE TOOLTIP (NO PRIOR SEASON, NO RATED CYCLES, NO ROWS FOR THIS TEAM) AND IS NEVER INTERPOLATED
LAST YR ≈ MEANS THE METERS CARRY FROM LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL · ROOM GRADES SUM INTO THE UNIT GRADES · THESE ARE THE SAME CENSUS FACTS THE GAME CENTER TEAM TAB SHOWS
NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE